If you take it as read that the Phillies definitely want Moyer back, and are at least somewhat open to having Burrell back, the logic is easy to follow: they think they can get one or both players back for less than what an arbitrator would award. Yes, the likelihood is that they’d come to agreements even before getting to arbitration, were either to accept—but in the case of Burrell, the fact that an arbitrator was available to hear the case essentially would guarantee a raise from Pat’s $14 million salary in 2008. It seems fairly certain that they want him back, if at all, for no more and probably less than that. Now it’s likely that they’ll either retain Burrell at their price, or—much more likely, since any suitor wouldn’t have to part with a draft pick—someone else will snap him up.

So Ruben Amaro is taking two big chances here: one, that the decision not to offer arbitration, which can be a move to scare off potential suitors as much as to indicate ongoing interest in the player, won’t burn the Phillies regarding their interest in bringing one or both back; and two, that if they do lose one or both of Moyer and Burrell, they can replace them with players of roughly equal ability for roughly equal cost. It comes down to Amaro’s read of both the market overall, and the level of trust with both players.

Don’t get me wrong: I would have offered both of them arbitration without a second thought. And my sense is that this will, in fact, blow up in Amaro’s face. But it’s not a move that shows any lack of confidence.

What kind of deal will it take to sign Burrell?

I hadn’t seen the new thread before ranting on the old one, so without meaning to repeat myself: unless Amaro does something intelligent and unexpected with the savings he’s made here — i.e. signing a free agent starter or working out an extension with someone like Hamels, Werth, or Victorino — then this is a short-sighted, stupid move.

And a slight tangential rant: isn’t the risk of paying, say, $5 million more than you’d prefer for Burrell and Moyer worth the draft picks you’d otherwise net? I still don’t think Burrell would settle for a 1-year deal at any price — he’s entering his decline phase and will want to lock into a long-term contract now — but even if we put the odds at 70/30 that he’d decline, the two draft picks would be worth that risk. Being scared to shell out a couple of extra million, in a year you won the friggin’ World Series and got all the revenue that comes with that, when the potential reward is a pair of draft picks that will help you restock your farm system, is quite frankly no way to run an organization.

…that is all.

EAR MUFFS EAR MUFFS LALALALA WE WON THE WORLD SERIES LALALALALALA I CANT HEAR YOU NOTHING’S GOING ON WE WON THE WORLD SERIES LALALALALALALALALALALA.

Well, it’s nice to see that the the more things change the more they stay the same

First post here, and as I hate it to be to the Met’s SBN blog, they assembled a good list of the arbitration players.

I just hope this means we aren’t seriously considering Raul Ibanez.

My gut says this really is a fear-based decision. Unfortunately, I think the economy is behind the reasoning, and I can’t really blame the front office. Things will be tough all over, and the recession is going to last a while. I think there will be a lot of empty seats in every ballpark, and I think all pro athletes looking to score a HUGE contract in the next couple of seasons are going to be disappointed.
That being said, I think Moyer will re-sign or retire, I don’t see him loading up his family for another move. He has one, maybe two years left, As for Burrell, there are certainly a few AL teams that will probably make a run at him, and if he is willing to DH at least part-time, he will most likely sign for more $$ than the Phils will offer. The loss of Burrell will sting, but I do think that the Phightin’ Phills still have enough tools to make another run.

The team is talking like it’s a cheap team again. Not a team that sold out a ton of its games and drew over 3M fans. Oh, or a team that won a World Series.

“On the other hand, the list of players who were not offered arbitration includes a whole bunch of guys in the same situation as Abreu and Pettitte [who Sheehan argued should have obviously been offered arbitration by the Yankees]. The Phillies punted Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer, both Type A free agents, in a situation identical to that of the Yankees. They have the money and the absence of the players is not easily rectified. Having both on one-year deals would have been a solid solution, and giving up the shot at draft picks is a waste.”