BP's Kevin Goldstein Ranks the Phils Prospects

by dajafi on Dec 22, 2008 1:01 PM EST Comment 3 comments

It might be the most damning sign of my baseball geekness that I've been waiting for this piece for, I dunno, a month. But it's out today, and it's worth your while. (If you're not a Baseball Prospectus subscriber and you've got a friend or relative that owes you a holiday present, ask for a subscription.) BP minors guru Goldstein's top 11 is as follows:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Carlos Carrasco, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
2. Michael Taylor, RF
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Travis D'Arnaud, C
5. Lou Marson, C
6. Jason Donald, SS
7. Dominic Brown, OF
8. J.A. Happ, RHP
9. Zach Collier, RF
10. Jason Knapp, RHP
11. Anthony Hewitt, 3B

Just Missed: Travis Mattair, 3B; Drew Naylor, RHP; Joe Savery, LHP

Everybody has a different system for evaluating, and in this list Goldstein seems to privilege ceiling--Drabek, for instance, has done next to nothing as a professional, but has ace-level talent--over proximity to the majors. He points out in passing that the gap between the impressive work Lou Marson and Jason Donald have done on the field, and the evaluations of scouts as to their relatively modest raw talent, makes them difficult to gauge as prospects. I might have had both guys higher, and I know that other minors mavens (Keith Law, the Baseball America folks) think very highly of outfielder Dom Brown. But Goldstein's appreciation for raw ability (I'm pretty sure he was the guy who brilliantly referred to Greg Golson as a "toolshed") is apparent here, not least with his inclusion of 2008 lottery-ticket draft picks Zach Collier, Jason Knapp, and Anthony Hewitt at the end of this list.

But as the major league team gets older, it's heartening to know that more good stuff is on the way. As always, check out Phuture Phillies for the best ongoing discussion of the team's minor-league system; James is likely to have Goldstein come by for a Q&A in the next week or two.

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I’m guessing Taylor will start the year at AA, since he did so well at Clearwater last year? This is another reason why I dislike the Ibanez signing. Taylor could be ready on Opening Day 2010, but if he is, we’ll be blocking him with a 37-year-old making an eight-figure salary. If we trade Ibanez to make an opening, we probably won’t get anything great in return due to his age. If we trade Victorino, Werth, or Taylor, then we’ll be giving up a younger player in order to keep a 37-year-old.

by taco pal on Dec 22, 2008 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

You’re probably right, unless he’s awful in ST. Taylor is one of the guys I’ll be watching closely this spring. Goldstein included some nice words about Taylor’s work ethic and how he’s regarded by teammates in his writeup, which has me even more encouraged about his future and probably bodes well for the chances of his 2008 representing a real breakout rather than a one-year fluke.

I’m not worried about him (or Brown) being “blocked,” though. Werth might be gone after 2009 (though my hunch is that they sign him for two or three years this winter), and if he’s not, I’m sure he’ll be tradable. Probably also true of Victorino. Ibanez, sadly, probably isn’t movable, and wouldn’t be moved, unless something weird happens. But they should have enough flexibility if Taylor plays his way into the picture for 2010.

by dajafi on Dec 22, 2008 1:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, by “blocked” I don’t mean to say it’ll be impossible to do a work-around to get Taylor into the lineup, should he earn it. I’m just saying that it’ll come at a price that we could have easily avoided paying. Of Burrell/Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth, the clear choice for the guy you’d want to drop to make room for a rookie would be Burrell/Ibanez. With Burrell, we would have been able to do that. With Ibanez, we probably won’t.

by taco pal on Dec 22, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs