Where will Ibanez be in the lineup?

by phllyfan22 on Dec 25, 2008 5:11 PM EST

Where will Phillies' newly signed outfielder Raul Ibanez be in their 2009 lineup. Charlie Manuel could just stick him in Burrell's spot, but then there are 3 lefties in a row.

He's has to be from 5th on, because he can't be 2 there are still 3 lefties in a row. Obviously not 1 or 3 or 4. I would be very surprized if Charlie split up Utley and Howard. They are one of the best 1, 2 punches in the league.

Poll

Where should Charlie Manuel put Raul Ibanez in the lineup?

5th spot

7 votes

6th spot

20 votes

7th spot

1 votes

other

0 votes

28 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

It doesn’t seem likely that the Phils would pay Ibanez $30 million and stick him at the bottom of the lineup. He hit lefties way better than Burrell and hits for a much higher overall average anyway, so in a way the 3 consecutive lefty problem seems a bit irrelevant. If anything he does exactly what someone after Howard needs to do—put the ball in play. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Charlie plug him in Burrell’s spot and see what happens for a while.

by Aspeed8 on Dec 25, 2008 9:35 PM EST reply actions

good point

by phllyfan22 on Dec 25, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions

Before free agency started on might have said ’it’s unlikely that any team will give up a first round draft pick and give Raul Ibanez 3 years and 30 million dollars’ – but that’s what the phillies did – so if he bats ninth i won’t be surprised

by jemagee on Dec 25, 2008 10:34 PM EST reply actions

Ugh...

Aspeed8, did you even bother to look at any stats before saying that Ibanez hits LH pitching better than Burrell? Ibanez has a .268/.322/.411 career line against lefties as compared to Burrell’s .276/.410/.540. Also, did you ever notice last year how much of a problem a good left-handed relief pitcher was when brought in to face Utley and Howard? Their combined OPS dropped .336 points against lefties as compared to right-handed pitchers. A dynamite combination can so very easily be turned into mediocre just with one call to the bullpen. This year, the entire situation is guaranteed to be worst, seeing as we are going to be losing another .207 OPS points by substituting Ibanez in for Burrell. I am not sure which makes less sense, the Phillies signing Ibanez or your post…

by Neduol Caz on Dec 27, 2008 7:42 PM EST reply actions

Let's look deeper

I wasn’t in favor of the Ibanez signing as a whole, and the career numbers don’t lie—but there are some bright spots with this guy. He certainly doesn’t have the same power, and Burrell walks way more—2 definite minuses, as you’ve pointed out with the OPS. But Ibanez puts the ball in play much more consistently than Burrell, and though you lose Burrell’s HR’s and BB’s, his absence also eliminates a ton of strikeouts as well. Burrell has struck out at least 120 times every season; Ibanez has never struck out more than 115 times in a year. Burrell has 1273 K’s in 4535 career AB’s; Ibanez has 787 in 4791 AB’s—a significant difference.

I hear your argument about Utley and Howard being easily shut down by a good lefty pitcher—that was certainly one of the Phils’ weak spots. But with Burrell behind them, if he didn’t hit a homer or draw a walk, he often struck out—the least productive thing a batter can do. With Ibanez backing them up, you’ll get a lot more balls in play, and likely more base hits. Ibanez did hit .305 against lefties to Burrell’s .279 last year—and Ibanez had 197 AB’s vs. lefties compared to Burrell’s 154.

So while the career numbers aren’t lying, they don’t always give the most pertinent information. Ibanez wasn’t the best the Phils could do, but he adds value (contact) to the lineup where it was desperately needed.

by Aspeed8 on Dec 28, 2008 11:00 PM EST up reply actions

Oh, I forgot how important strikeouts were – thanks for reminding me

by jemagee on Dec 29, 2008 11:20 AM EST up reply actions

worst thing

No, the worst thing a batter can do with runners on base is hit into a double play. Burrell hits into approximately 10-12 double plays a season; Ibanez averages around 13. Fairly small, but it’s measurable, especially when you consider that Burrell likely has hit with more baserunners on than Ibanez has on some pretty woeful Mariners teams.

Burrell flat out makes fewer outs than Ibanez. The rather small subset of situations where a productive out is preferable is far, far outweighed by Burrell’s superior non-outmaking prowess.

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WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Dec 29, 2008 12:06 PM EST up reply actions

bottom line

Burrell may make fewer outs and have a higher OBP but winning baseball games comes down to scoring runs… Ibanez has driven in more (110 in 2008) than Pat (86 in 2008) and scored more (85 in 08) than Pat (74 in 08). Those numbers are not like that for just last season but in plenty of seasons past dating back to Raul’s first full season in 2003 (minus 2004 when he was hurt for a portion of time). Ibanez put up those better run production and run scoring numbers for worse offensive teams and in a much more spacious ballpark than the bank. By June nobody will remember pat is gone.

by phatso on Dec 29, 2008 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

Let’s see

WHo was batting in front of Pat Burell and who was batting in front of Raul Ibanez.

The people trying to make Ibanez a better option than Pat Burrell would make Dallas Green proud…loves them counting stats.

by jemagee on Dec 29, 2008 8:17 PM EST up reply actions

Making fewer outs is basically the same thing as scoring more runs. The stats you’re using are not good measures of run-scoring contributions because of how team-dependent they are.

Here’s a little thought experiment for you. Say there are runners at the corners with less than two outs. Which option is usually better: (a) making a “productive out” and knocking in the runner at third, or (b) walking to load the bases (and thus not getting an RBI)? Pick one and explain your reasons why.

by taco pal on Dec 29, 2008 9:17 PM EST up reply actions

You’re MEAN

by jemagee on Dec 29, 2008 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

Its pretty simple in my opinion and not as bad as u guys are making it out to be… Ibanez will bat 5th against right handed starters and probably 6th against lefty starters with Werth probably fitting into the 5 hole. I agree that the phils could have possibly gotten better value by waiting and signing someone else later sometime before spring training but I think Raul will be everything that Burrell wasnt (a timely, contact hitter who makes productive outs). We might miss the occasional 2 or 3 run bombs but I think Ibanez is a more practical fit in the long run. Late game lefty lefty matchups with 3 lefties in a row scares me a lot but the Mets won’t be as lefty stacked in their bullpen as they were last year (Schoenweis and Wagner are gone) and I cant see the mets lifting Putz in any 8th inning situations to put in Feliciano. Other bullpens in the division dont scare me much. I truely believe Ibanez will be a fan favorite when its all said and done.

by phatso on Dec 27, 2008 10:28 PM EST reply actions

thats true
thanks for saying something productive rather than pointing out every flaw with this post.

by phllyfan22 on Dec 27, 2008 11:47 PM EST up reply actions

Walks are almost always better than “productive outs”. Burrell is much better at drawing walks than Ibanez is.

The fans in this town do not have a strong track record when it comes to choosing the best players as their favorites.

Ibanez isn’t a bad player. He will probably be no more than a small step down from Burrell next year. It’s even possible that he will have a slightly better year than Burrell. But he wasn’t worth the money, the years, or the wasted draft pick(s).

As for lineup order, I’m not terribly concerned about that. As long as you don’t have Utley, Howard, and Ibanez all batting consecutively. If they bat 2-4-5 or 3-4-6 or whatever, it won’t be a killer, though it would still have been better to have just kept Burrell.

by taco pal on Dec 29, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Is RISP the only available ‘RBI opprtunity’ statistic out there? Is there any better kind of examination of how guys convert (percentage wise) when they have a chance to bat guys in?

by jemagee on Dec 29, 2008 8:30 PM EST reply actions