Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

by David S. Cohen on Feb 19, 2008 3:26 PM EST in News

The big question for the future of the Phillies right now is Ryan Howard. With his arbitration tomorrow, all attention is focused on the difference between $7M and $10M. But, obscured in the focus on Howard is the fact that, barring a trade, he's going to be a Phillie through at least 2011.

The big bat that the Phillies might lose after this season is Pat Burrell. So, this spring training is a good time to put Burrell's career with the Phillies in perspective.

Here, I'm going to look at a particular perspective. I compared the Phillies' left field output from the day Burrell's career started (May 24, 2000) until now with every other team's left field output.

How do Phillies' left fielders compare? Pretty well. Their ranks in the majors are as follows:

TPA	5
HR	5
RBI	3
BA	28
OBP	8
SLG	11
OPS	10

Going up against the likes of Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and Brian Giles, these rankings are pretty good. Obviously, Pat Burrell's batting average issues are reflected here, but otherwise, his and the other Phillies left fielders' production has been substantially above average.

Pat Burrell constituted just under 80% of these plate appearances, so others contributed to these impressive numbers. However, as a left fielder, Burrell produced an .856 OPS, compared to the Phillies overall left field OPS for this time of .839. Thus, his replacements have been worse than he has. Suffice it to say that Pat Burrell has been a significant offensive force during his time here, one most teams would love to have in their lineup spot for their left fielder and one that the Phillies have missed when he's not in the lineup.

The full chart of teams' left field performance during the Burrell era, ranked by OPS, is below the fold.

	TPA	HR	RBI	BB	K	BA	OBA	Slug%	OPS
San Francisco	5470	332	850	1197	656	0.303	0.461	0.612	1.073
Boston	5507	269	869	670	1002	0.292	0.382	0.530	0.912
Pittsburgh	5383	247	800	718	993	0.283	0.385	0.518	0.903
Colorado	5369	224	793	420	960	0.302	0.363	0.519	0.882
Arizona	5510	214	746	651	690	0.286	0.376	0.498	0.874
Cincinnati	5423	276	761	713	1276	0.262	0.366	0.504	0.870
Houston	5410	193	742	563	866	0.286	0.365	0.485	0.850
St. Louis	5351	221	741	506	1009	0.283	0.356	0.492	0.848
Florida	5331	196	753	491	957	0.286	0.358	0.485	0.843
Philadelphia	5469	243	828	740	1234	0.260	0.361	0.478	0.839
Los Angeles AL	5355	180	828	354	721	0.299	0.345	0.483	0.828
Toronto	5539	127	603	416	759	0.295	0.358	0.450	0.808
Milwaukee	5354	218	742	433	1042	0.267	0.333	0.473	0.806
Atlanta	5289	149	638	546	879	0.283	0.360	0.446	0.806
Chicago NL	5357	199	673	427	866	0.278	0.338	0.463	0.801
Los Angeles NL	5318	196	668	527	894	0.270	0.347	0.452	0.799
Detroit	5219	205	748	387	901	0.271	0.328	0.467	0.795
New York NL	5315	163	634	486	854	0.276	0.350	0.444	0.794
Texas	5332	153	624	476	886	0.274	0.343	0.445	0.788
Oakland	5344	171	641	488	814	0.268	0.339	0.444	0.783
New York AL	5380	159	701	495	740	0.276	0.345	0.436	0.781
Chicago AL	5327	159	613	424	798	0.277	0.338	0.439	0.777
Seattle	5390	132	653	530	844	0.278	0.351	0.426	0.777
Tampa Bay	5453	110	579	376	911	0.285	0.337	0.426	0.763
Minnesota	5383	136	597	395	839	0.279	0.337	0.426	0.763
San Diego	5446	140	605	595	931	0.263	0.346	0.416	0.762
Montreal	5271	148	579	487	1082	0.256	0.331	0.419	0.750
Cleveland	5321	144	605	416	923	0.266	0.327	0.419	0.746
Baltimore	5133	129	598	454	807	0.263	0.332	0.409	0.741
Kansas City	5191	128	603	372	828	0.260	0.316	0.403	0.719

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Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

Nice work. So Burrell essentially was the third-best RBI man at the position, behind Bonds and Man-Ram? I can live with that.

But I'm not entirely sure the Phils have screwed up, or are on a path to screwing up, by not having extended Pat yet. He'll be 32 to start the 2009 season, and his B-R comps mostly tended to drop off in their early 30s (though a few did not). At two years, $22 million I'd happily take the chance, but given his "old player" skill set and chronic foot issues--that he always plays through, a fact his critics somehow have missed--I can't totally blame the Phils for seeing whether the first-half or second-half Burrell shows up.

by dajafi on Feb 19, 2008 4:35 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

I agree with all of this. I'd love to get him back on a reasonable short-term contract. But, more than that, I'd pass.

by David S. Cohen on Feb 19, 2008 4:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

I don't really disagree, but it raises the problem: if not Pat, then who?

since there is really no internal replacement, that leaves trades and free agency. next year the only real options in the corner spots are Burrell himself, Dunn, and our old friend Bobby Abreu.

if Werth or Dobbs post anywhere close to respectable numbers this year, I would not be at all surprised if we see some kind of Jenkins/Werth in right & Dobbs/bargain FA in left setup. not something I'm looking forward to.

by perfectdepth on Feb 19, 2008 4:45 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

My fear is that we see Werth and Jenkins flanking Victorino in the corners next year. That seems like a pretty sure way to minimize what the Big Three infielders come up with.

by dajafi on Feb 19, 2008 8:38 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

What are Burrell's fielding stats like these days? To the naked eye, it sure looks like he's gotten unbelievably slow and bad out there, but then looks can be deceiving.

Obviously, the bat's still the main thing for a LF either way, but it's a consideration.

by taco pal on Feb 19, 2008 8:29 PM EST 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

I think the consensus of the fielding stats is that he's unbelievably slow and bad out there.

by phatj on Feb 19, 2008 11:25 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

And the running stats too. Actually, his baserunning may be even worse than his fielding, if that's even possible.

by David S. Cohen on Feb 19, 2008 11:40 PM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

According to David Pinto's Probabilistic Model of Range*, Burrell has been at the bottom of left fielders over the last 3 years.

He was last of all left fielders in 2007, 6 from the bottom in 2006, and 9 from the bottom in 2005. Or by plays:

176 made/198 predicted (-22)
205/214 (-9)
216/231 predicted (-15)

So, yeah, Burrell pretty much sucks in left field.

*PMR looks at characteristics of each ball hit(e.g. velocity, angle, etc) and evaluates a probability of the ball being caught. The sum of these probabilities is the number of predicted outs. Links to the data: 2007, 2006, 2005

by christonabike on Feb 20, 2008 12:46 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

Burrell as a hitter has been very good and shockingly very consistent the last 3 years. He has OBPs of .388, .389, and .400 which is outstanding. His SLGs were .504, .502, and .502. The consistency there is absurd. Burrell may fluctuate from week to week or even month to month, but by the end of the season you pretty much know what you are getting at the plate which is a damn good hitter. The BBs are increasing while the K's are decreasing which are very good indicators. I know he is awful in the field, and truth be told he would make a perfect DH, but I would be pissed if the Phils lose him, especially if his numbers again fall in line with the last 3 years (which should be expected). Burrell's OBP, which is much more important than SLG, would be sorely missed and it would be hard to replace.

by zdavis2512 on Feb 20, 2008 4:11 AM EST 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

David, excellent job....excellent.

I too, would like to see Pat back on a ST deal, but I think we all realize that's not going to be possible. 2 yrs/22mil is just not going to get it done. He's also unlikely to take a significant pay cut from the 14MM he's making this year.

Oter GMs will figure out what you've presented here, and he'll get at least 3 years from some team. After all, he is the #3 RBI guy at the position.

Here's something that might work:

3 yrs, $42 - 45 MM with vesting (or some kind of team/player) options that can increase the length of the deal to 5 yrs. That keeps him in Philly at least as long as Howard.

I won't say his bat is irreplaceable, but as zdavis2512 points out....who else is out there?

Actually, this just occurred to me: Maybe an extension for PB will hinge on whether they think Golson can actually turn it around in AA this year. I certainley don't view him as a 'prospect', but the FO does seem to be engaging in some unfounded hope as far as Golson is concerned.

They sould e reminded of the old adage about 'a bird in the hand...."

by AWH on Feb 20, 2008 7:21 AM EST 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

One thing that fans tend to miss is the upward trends in some of his numbers these past five years.

Isolated Power has gone up every year for the past five years.

Secondary Average has gone up every year for the past five years.

BB/SO has gone up every year for the past five years.

BB/PA has gone up every year for the past five years.

AB/HR has gone down for every year for the past five years.

His OPS has stayed the same these past three years, so the quality of his at bats are getting better from year to year. He may very well explode this year, especially if that foot is healthy.

As for his defense, he can be hidden for half the games in Citizens Bank, so his offensive numbers should commpensate.

Good stuff.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=4214

by kwahraps on Feb 20, 2008 9:09 AM EST up 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

good ryan howard piece here....u can vote on the arbitration hearing which is today.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/02/20/will-ryan-howard-get-his-cheddar/

by em3 on Feb 20, 2008 9:37 AM EST 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

Although Burrell's fielding is mediocre most of the time, he does have a knack of coming up with big plays at the right times. Whether it be one of his sliding catches or throwing a guy out at second, quite a few times a season he comes up with game changing plays in the field. He is definitely slow in the field and had a career worst year in the field as he was supposedly slowed by foot injuries. That being said, I think his bat caused more wins than his glove did losses. 10 errors in a season is bad for a LF but factor in 30 hr 97 rbi and a .400 obp and I would still love to have him back. It even seems he would be willing to accept a hometown discount and he has blocked more than one trade so he did not have to leave philadelphia.

by schrifty on Feb 20, 2008 11:16 AM EST 0 recs

Re: Pat Burrell's Career in Perspective

Also, OVer last 3 yrs Burrell has averaged:
151 gms
78 runs
26 doubles
30 hr
103 rbi
104 walks
.392 obp
.266 Batting Average
His strikeouts are still high but have gone down each of the last 3 seasons.

by schrifty on Feb 20, 2008 11:30 AM EST up 0 recs