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Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants

UPDATE: Arthroscopic surgery for Lidge! Three to six weeks recovery. Whether he'll be ready for Opening Day remains to be seen, but I doubt it. Don't you looooooooovve this team?

Well, it only took one pitch, but the Phillies' brand new closer/overpriced late inning reliever Brad Lidge felt a twinge in his surgically repaired knee while throwing off the mound, limped off the field and shut it down.

With limited information and insistence from all parties that it's nothing serious, I guess it's not time to fly off the handle, but I can't imagine that there's anyone not having Freddy Garcia flashbacks right now.

What are the odds that Brett Myers boobytrapped the mound to get his old job back?  Trying to adorably recapture the national spotlight after the phenomenally successful Kyle Kendrick prank?

Myers (standing over Lidge, who is on the ground clutching his knee and writhing in pain):  "You just got PUNK'D!!"

(graemlin courtesy j.karn)

0 recs | Comment 43 comments

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Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Mr. Baker, let's, pleeeeeeeeeease, keep the punking to the locker room.

My prediction:  it's just a tweak.  He'll be ready to go.  There was no ligament damage in the knee, which is a far more serious problem, so if he felt a "pull", it probably was scar tissue.

Of course, it's not my knee, so what do I know.

by AWH on Feb 24, 2008 8:53 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
The Phillies are pretty notorius for keeping the physical condition of their players a big secret.  It's something they seem to think is very important for some reason.

Normally, I don't worry as much about knees as I do about elbows and shoulders.  But with the Phils, you never do know.  

If Lidge's knee really isn't a problem, I think he'll be excellent this year.  But I'm always worriesd about Phillie injuries because they just are not honest about them.

by smitty on Feb 24, 2008 9:25 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
While this may be true, I don't see why the Phillies have any obligation to be honest with their fans about injuries. Even if they gave us accurate information, what would we be able to do about it? The spinning is annoying because it's usually gratuitous and serves no strategic purpose, but I don't think it really matters in the grand scheme of things.

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 12:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I will believe Lidge is healthy when I see him pitch in a regular season game.  Before then, I will not listen to a single word that comes from the Phillies.

by Neduol Caz on Feb 24, 2008 9:46 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
At least Freddy Garcia made it to opening day...
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Feb 24, 2008 11:52 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
no, he didn't.  segovia had to make the first start in his spot.  he showed up during the second week of the season or so, and left in early june i think.

by MattS on Feb 24, 2008 5:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Surgery for Lidge. He'll have his knee scoped, he thinks he'll be back by the start of the season. He should miss almost all of spring training though.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Feb 24, 2008 3:35 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
He says he will be throwing again within a week.  Just not off a mound.  HE should be ready in 3-6 weeks.  HOpefully they wont rush him back before he is ready.

by schrifty on Feb 25, 2008 8:19 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Just as important as losing Lidge-as-closer is the resultant thinning of the pitching staff that results.  Flash is certainly capable of being an effective pitcher, but Romero's regression to the mean is going to be pretty pretty ugly this season, and who knows what to expect from Madson, Condrey, etc.  Lots of high leverage innings for lots of mediocre, injury-prone arms.

Mathieson's emergence this season, while doubtful, would be really, really, really big.

by WholeCamels on Feb 25, 2008 9:42 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Is it guaranteed that Romero can't have a great year? It seems everyone has accepted this as fact.

by schrifty on Feb 25, 2008 9:52 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Of course it's not guaranteed, but it's so unlikely that he'll come close to repeating what he did in 2007 that only the foolhardy would construct their team on the assumption that such a player will remain a "lights out" set-up guy.  Especially a pitcher whose K/BB ratio hovers uncomfortably close to 1:1, and who's been dreadful for half of his career.

A smart team would plan around Romero being at best mediocre.

by WholeCamels on Feb 25, 2008 10:44 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Romero has hardly ever been mediocre.  He's been very good or really bad most of the time.  ERA + isn't everything but here's his numbers since 2002: 236; 91; 135; 128; 68; 243.

The "mean" he is going to "regress" to looks like an ERA + of around 130.  I'll take that.

Romero is a durable, hard throwing lefty who throws lots of ground balls and really cuts off the running game well.  Yes, he has control problems.  But most of the time he is effective, even with the poor control.  He doesn't get hit all that hard and he keeps the ball on the ground and with Rollins, Feliz and Utley behind him he should be fine -- despite the walks.

I don't think anyone is thinking Romero will be "lights out."  Right now it looks like Madson, Romero and Gordon will support Lidge with a couple of guys who throw hard but who haven't turned the corner yet (Durbin; Rosario; Bisenius; Castro; Zagurski; Smith and guys like that) fighting it out for innings at some point during the year.  It's a plan that could succeed pretty well without Romero being "lights out."

by smitty on Feb 25, 2008 2:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
You are assuming every single pitcher in our 'pen is going to have a good year.  Romero pitching to the tune of a 130+ era would be a great season, Lidge staying healthy and returning to his old form would be nice, Gordon having a healthy and productive season in his 40's is awesome, and Madson staying healthy and productive would give us one of the league's best bullpens.  But guess what, it isn't going to happen!  It is just as likely that Romero suffers one of his sub-100+ era seasons, Lidge is hurt/ineffective, Gordon moves into a retirement home, and Madson posts a frustratingly inconsistent campaign.  Also, Durbin, Rosario, and Bisenius are triple A arms, not productive big leaguers.  I love Castro, however, he has never put it together.  And here is the kicker, Zagurski and Smith are both injured!  Now, all of my scenarios will not end up happening just like all of you optimistic predictions are, well, hopeless.  The actual season will most likely be somewhere down the middle.  So, in conclusion, while we would all like money to grow on trees and a permanent rainbow in the horizon, it just doesn't happen.

by Neduol Caz on Feb 25, 2008 9:34 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I'm not assuming anything.  This was not a prediction post.  I was defining what "regressing to the mean" is for Romero.  I was actually wrong.  The mean of 236, 91, 135, 128, 68 and 243 is 150 not 130.

I also described the condition of the bullpen.  It is a crew that can be good -- perhaps very good.  But, as with most bullpens, it could also not be so hot.  I think we all know how volitile bullpen pitchers are from year to year.  But you are wrong about the arms of the guys competing for the last bullpen slots -- they have big league arms.  They lack command and control but that might change.  And with as many candidates as the Phils have, some of them might come through.  It's better, in my view, than depending on a bunch of Turk Wendells and Roberto Hernandezs and guys like that.

And we all know that Smith and Zagurski are hurt.  Mathieson (who I forgot to mention) and Bisenious are also recovering from owies.

You're a smart guy -- I'm surprised you misunderstood my post so badly.

by smitty on Feb 26, 2008 2:33 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Romero's career ERA+ is 108... you can't add his ERA+'s up and find your mean..

by Homer on Feb 26, 2008 9:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Good point.  You can't just add them up and divide by six.  But he, in fact pitched many more innings in his first outstanding season than he did in his poor one and he pitched more innings in his 135 ERA + season than he did in his 91 ERA + season.  So his mean over the last six seasons  may be even better than 150.  

His career numbers are skewed badly by two very poor seasons early in his career when he was miscast as a starter.  I think the last six seasons are more relevant to what we are discussing.

He has had two outstanding seasons, two very good seasons one mediocre season and one horrible season in his last six.  That's not too bad.  I think if he "returns to his mean", it will be a very good thing for the Phils.

by smitty on Feb 27, 2008 5:03 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I would agree that the two seasons as a starter shouldn't count. My back-of-the-envelope calculation says that from 2002-2007, Romero's ERA+ has been 156.

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 12:17 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Regardless, ERA and ERA+ are biased stats for left-handed relievers who frequently come into games with one or two outs.  Unless a LOOGY has a weakness in homeruns, his only runs surrendered are going to be in big innings.  There are too many situations where you come into a game with second and third and two out, give up a 2-run double and get a flyout and lower your ERA.  

by MattS on Feb 27, 2008 12:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
But Romero hasn't been used strictly as a LOOGY during most of his career.  I agree that ERA + isn't the best tool to use for a reliever.  But it's hard to make the case that a guy with an ERA + of 150 over the last six years isn't pretty good.

Romero does pretty good using the fancy stats like WxRL too.

by smitty on Feb 27, 2008 1:54 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Right.  I mean, I think we can all agree that Romero isn't going to be as good as he was last August and September - I don't think anyone anywhere has said that he would be.  But he's still likely to be well above average.

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 2:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
well, his ERA+ from 2002 to 2007 is actually 128. and I think it's a fair point that ERA isn't an accurate metric since he averages less than an inning per appearance, so it's probably likely that he's either frequently inheriting runners or leaving runners on.

by perfectdepth on Feb 27, 2008 2:08 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
a few more seconds of research and I find that his IR% is a pretty decent 31%. but that still means he let 85 (of 272) inherited runners score - of all relievers with 250+ IP from 2002 to 2007, Romero ranks fifth in that category.

by perfectdepth on Feb 27, 2008 2:14 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I don't get it. If the rate was decent, then doesn't this just mean he pitched a lot of innings for a reliever during those years?

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 2:28 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I'm not saying his inherited runner rate is necessarily bad or good. I'm just saying that it undermines the accuracy of looking at ERA to gauge a reliever.

by perfectdepth on Feb 27, 2008 2:50 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
And I'm not disagreeing with you. I just think the problems with using ERA would tend to even out when you're working with a larger sample (for example, six seasons).

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
It's an imperfect metric, but you have a pretty substantial sample size there. Why assume that runners that he inherited over a six-year stretch scored at a disproportionately high rate, or that runners that others inherited from him were stranded at a disproportionately high rate?

In any event, Romero's WHIP over that period was 1.40, which is so-so, but he also had a consistently good K rate and a 2-1 groundball ratio.  If his ERA+ was 128 over the six years, then that doesn't necessarily sound implausible to me.

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 2:27 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I would say a WHIP of 1.4 for a reliever is a lot worse than so-so.

by perfectdepth on Feb 27, 2008 2:49 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Eh, I don't agree. And anyway, like I said, his other stats indicate that to the extent he gets into jams, he's uniquely well-suited for getting out of them as well on a consistent, replicable basis. Which would also help to offset any negative traits he might have in regard to inherited runners. (He also doesn't give up the longball: HR/9IP from 2002-07 = 0.6)

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 4:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
A 1.4 WHIP isn't good.  But we know that's because he walks way too many guys.  The question is, is he able to overcome that weakness.Well, he cuts off the running game and throws a tremendous number of ground balls (GB/FB rate of over 2 in 3 of the last four years).  Those are good things.
I don't expect Romero to be a great pitcher this year.  But he has a pretty good chance of teaming up with Madson and perhaps a semi-healthy Gordon to provide very fine support for Lidge. 
 I expect some of the young (or semi-young) guys to have decent or better seasons.  Mathieson or Bisenius maybe.  Durbin, Rosario, Castro -- later Smith or Zagurski perhaps.  

The Phils MIGHT have a strong bullpen this season.  Bullpens are funny things.  I think the Phils have quite a few guys who could have pretty good seasons.  The trick will be identifying them and using them properly -- not really a Manuel strength it seems.  I'm looking forward to seeing how it works out and hoping guys like Mesa and Alfonseca and the like do not take the mound for our heroes this year.

by smitty on Feb 27, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
It's just not that it's an imperfect metric.  There are two problems with ERA.  One is the typical argument that it is biased.  However, there is another argument for relievers.

If you pitch the end of innings frequently, but not the beginning as much, you will have a lower ERA than you would if you started every inning.  Consider a pitcher who only enters games with two outs.  His runners have to score before no one gets out to count against his ERA.  If you have give up a double every other batter and get a strikeout every other batter, you will give up 2 runs in every innings you pitch if you start them.  If you do the exact same thing but starting every inning with two outs, you give up 0 runs in every inning.  That's a part of the reason why relievers have lower ERA s than starters (though not the whole reason).

by MattS on Feb 28, 2008 7:28 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Oh-- forgot to say-- that means that a large sample size will not correct for this error.  Noisy measures become more accurate with large sample sizes; biased measures do not.

by MattS on Feb 28, 2008 7:29 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Yes I understand that concept, but I'm not aware that Romero (or anyone else for that matter) enters ballgames mid-inning disproportionately compared to other relievers, certainly not consistently over a six-year stretch.

The problem with your argument is that it proves too much. Any baseball statistic can be biased if you start your analysis by simply assuming certain hypothetical bias-favoring conditions to be present on a consistent basis. Reliever ERA is no different from any other statistic in that regard. But unless there's some factual or logical basis for that assumption - in this case, some reason why Romero would have consistently been used in the same way over six consecutive seasons - then that theoretical possibility doesn't provide any reason to simply disregard the statistic.

I don't think the mere fact that Romero is a lefty is a sound basis for that assumption. Yes, LH relievers sometimes enter games mid-inning to face specific lefty hitters. However, they also leave games mid-inning for the same reason. I don't see why lefthandedness would cause only the first condition without also causing the second.

by taco pal on Feb 28, 2008 1:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Everything you say is true.  ERA isn't perfect.  But it isn't worthless either and it clearly points to Romero as a very fine pitcher most years.

If you use other metrics -- more advanced ones -- he does well too.  VORP and WxRL and that stuff.

He has a high WHIP but he overcomes that most of the time by keeping the ball on the ground and in the park and by cutting off the running game.  

He is nearly the opposite of Jamie Moyer but he gets the job done most of the time too.  Romero is one of the most consistent and durable middle/set up relievers around.  He isn't great.  But he'll most likely help the Phils win this year.  

by smitty on Feb 28, 2008 1:40 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Oops.  I forgot something too.  Yes, theoretically, a reliever can be lousy and give up a lot of inherited runners and still have a low ERA.  But if you look carefully at Romero's record, you won't find that he does give up a lot of inherited runners.  So his low ERAs are a pretty good indicator of his effectivness.

In my view the best way to use him is to start innings with him and let him pitch multiple innings at times.  He can be an effective LOOGY but he is more valuable as a one inning or more guy.

by smitty on Feb 28, 2008 1:44 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Turk Wendell had an 11 year big league career with a career era+ of 109.  He had a horrible stint in '01, but bounced back nicely in '03 with an era+ of 118 in 53 games for the Phils.  Roberto Hernandez is still enjoying a great career, pitching in 17 seasons with a career era+ of 131.  In '04 with the Phils he provided slightly below league average statistics, culminating in an era+ of 94.  In my opinion, I would love to have these type of pitchers for my middle relief crew.  Now, lets compare these pitchers with Durbin, Rosario and Bisenius.  Durbin (I am assuming J.D.?) has appeared in 23 games spread across parts of two seasons.  He is entering his age 26 season with a career era+ of 75.  Rosario, 27, has appeared in 40 games, also across two seasons, and has a career era+ of 76.  Bisenius, while I think will never be more than a 12th man, at least has "potential", albeit a very little amount of potential.  His era's have steadily rose as he progressed through the minor league levels, culminating in a 5.48 era in AAA last year.  Now 25, this year is really the last chance Bisenius has to turn his career into something meaningful.   I hate to say it, but pitchers rarely find "command" and "control" when they are 25, 26, and  27.  Generally, pitchers at these ages are what they are.  In the case of Durbin, Rosario, and Bisenius, these pitchers are not good.

by Neduol Caz on Feb 26, 2008 9:46 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
I disagree that pitchers who are 25, 26 or 27 "are what they are."  A famous example is Jim Konstanty who was 33 before he was any good.  J. J. Putz, the Ms great closer, was 28 before he was any good as a big leaguer.  Brendon Donnely was 30 before he became one of the better relief pitchers around.  George Sherrill was 29 before he established himself and he had a fabulous year last season.  Scott Proctor was 29 before he had a good year.  B. J. Ryan wasn't really good until he was 27.  

Lots and lots of relief pitchers don't establish themselves before they are in their later 20s.  I'm not a big fan of stocking the bullpen with a bunch of veterans who are on their last legs.  You remember the Turk Wendell who had a great first half for the Phils in 2003, but I remember the worn out guy who was slapped around for a 5.40 second half ERA and an .811 opponent OPS.  

I think the best way to build a bullpen is to mix in veterans and young guys.  I could be wrong.  But I think that is the most effective way to build a bullpen.  

by smitty on Feb 27, 2008 5:26 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Can the Phillies trade for a high-profile pitcher and have it work out?  I guess Billy Wagner worked out, but other than that - Ashby, Millwood, Garcia, now Lidge.  Ugh.

by David S. Cohen on Feb 25, 2008 10:17 AM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Wagner was hurt for a long while in his first season.  It likely cost the team a playoff spot as the bullpen was really good when he was in there with Worrell and Madson.  The Phils record in this regard is horrible.  Lidge still has a chance to be the most successful (healthy) guy in his first season.  But he isn't starting off so hot.

If he does happen to pitch the whole regular season without incident maybe the Phils should stick to signing pitchers on crutches.

by smitty on Feb 26, 2008 2:37 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Well, I was wrong about it being a tweak.  So much for speculation, eh?

by AWH on Feb 25, 2008 8:16 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Check out Don McKee today. "Surely, putting the pennant race on the unstable shoulder of Tom Gordon is a time bomb waiting to explode. It would seem the Phillies have only two real options: trade for another closer, or bite the bullet and return Brett Myers to his chosen role, then trade for another starter. While all you wussies were only worrying that Lidge might miss the beginning of the season, McKee has already concluded that Lidge will be out for the entire year, all the way through to the pennant race. That's how a real journamalist jumps to conclusions.

Personally, I think pants-crapping of all varieties can wait until we know some more facts.

by taco pal on Feb 27, 2008 12:06 PM EST   0 recs

Re: Lidge tweaks knee; fans crap pants
Yeah, I'd say McKee is getting a little ahead of himself.
Bleeding Green Nation Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Feb 27, 2008 1:03 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

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