Looking forward to next offseason?

by schrifty on Feb 8, 2008 12:28 PM EST

After this season the Phillies have a large sum of money coming off of the books. What should/will they do with this money? First, here are the expiring contracts and their values:
Jime Thome- $7 million
Pat Burrell- $14 Million
Wes Helms- $2.15 Million
Jamie Moyer- $3.5 million
Tom Gordon- $5.5 Million
Brad Lidge- will hopefully be re-signed if has a good season but, $6.35 million

It is possible that if Burrell has a big season to follow up the second half of last year's campaign he could be re-signed. But, we would have to assume at a reasonably lower cost. Maybe in the 8-10 million range. Ryan Howard obviously is due a raise. The questions remains if the phillies will go through the arbitration process every year or will give him a large contract. Either way, if the team increases it's spending as they have been doing on an annual basis, most of our core players are locked up.
Is there any possibilty the phillies could throw monster money at C.C. Sabathia and maybe a Joe Nathan or Jason Ingringhausen? Ben Sheets will be a free agent possibly A.J Burnett will as well. Derek Lowe and Jon Garland should be free agents. IT does not seem like many position players will be available. The top ones have option years. IT may be best to re sign Burrell and pick up some more pitching!! What would you like and what do you think the Phils will do? http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2002/02/2008-09-free-agents.html

Tweet Comment 10 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

Some of those guys won't reach the market, but even those who do would probably charge a 15 percent premium to come pitch in OFJOAB. Unless/until they move back the fences or otherwise reconfigure the park, the Phils will have to find pitchers through player development or trade. It's unpleasant but true.

I'd offer Burrell two years, $20 million plus incentives right now.

by dajafi on Feb 8, 2008 12:41 PM EST reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

Derek Lowe would be amazing here! 3.37 Groundball to flyball ratio. Our park would not hurt him a bit. Our defensive infield would prob lower his era altogether. Pitchers will pitch here if they are paid. The game runs more on money than future statistics for most players. Plus, they have a built in excuse if their eras creep upwards. I agree on burrell completely.

by schrifty on Feb 8, 2008 12:59 PM EST reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

Yeah, I'd love to see Lowe in Philly and I agree he's ideal for our park and our infield defense. But I think he's a Boras client.

And maybe the bigger problem even than the ballpark is the unwillingness of ownership to pay top dollar for top talent. They'd rather shell out 3/$24m for Adam Eaton than 4/$46 for a #2/#3 pitcher like Lowe.

by dajafi on Feb 8, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

I would break the bank to have a Hamels/Lowe/Myers 1-3 not to mention kendrick as a 4 or 5 and maybe a Carrasco or Outman next year. Johan who??

by schrifty on Feb 8, 2008 1:10 PM EST reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

Lowe is the only guy on that list who I think has even a chance to play in Philadelphia. the money coming off the books isn't going to be that significant when you account for the raises going out: Howard (hard to predict, but in the $5-10M range), Utley (+$3.5M), Myers (+$3.5M), Feliz (+$2M), Eaton (+$1M), and Rollins (+$.5M).

so by my count, that's going to be close to (if not over) $18M added to the books for 2009--and that doesn't count raises to guys like Hamels (super 2 arb-eligible in '09?), Victorino, Werth, Ruiz, etc. the guys you have listed only account for $38.5M, and there's also the matter of buyouts for Gordon ($1M), Helms ($0.75M), Taguchi (unspecified).

that's only going to leave us with $18M or so to spend on a starting LF, 200 innings in the rotation, a closer, and a setup man.

in other words, the Phillies are not sitting on a windfall in 2009.

by perfectdepth on Feb 8, 2008 3:41 PM EST reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

First of all, ONLY 18 million? Thats assuming that the phillies do not actually add payroll as they have been doing every other year. If the Phillies set an attendance record this year, and there is no reason to believe that they won't, then they will surely spend money in free agency to keep the team competitive. Unless we win the world series this year, we will have to continue to upgrade our team and our payroll.

by schrifty on Feb 8, 2008 6:18 PM EST reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

"First of all, ONLY 18 million?"

you missed the second part of that sentence: $18M to spend on a starting LF, 200 innings in the rotation, a closer, and a setup man. when you need to buy four quality players, $18M is not very much money at all these days.

"Thats assuming that the phillies do not actually add payroll as they have been doing every other year...they will surely spend money in free agency to keep the team competitive."

that's an assumption that is not supported by reality. actual payroll has been cut since 2005, from $95M to $88M in 2006 and $89M in 2007. even with the Thome payments, that's essentially static. and there are no signs that payroll is going to increase this year beyond a few million.

given the number of players the Phillies will need to acquire next year, unless they raise payroll substantially (i.e. at least $115M) they're not going to be able to compete for the services of any of the top free agents.

by perfectdepth on Feb 8, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

The phillies have setup men. MAdson and Romero are setup guys. Plus, we do not know what we may get out of zagurski or other young guys. I figure 18 mill goes to primarily a starting pitcher and a left fielder.
According to forbes.com The phillies spent 106 on player obligations in 2005, 104 in 2006 and 108 in 2007. Team value rose from 392 mill in 2005 to 424 in 2006 and all the way to 457 million in 2007. Are we supposed to assume that the phillies value will continue to rise while raising seat and vending prices but, they won't increase payroll as well? MArk my words, next offseason the phillies will finally open up the vault and with some more top tier pitchers, increase team value even further.

by schrifty on Feb 9, 2008 9:20 AM EST reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

the word for this kind of logic is "wishcasting."

by perfectdepth on Feb 9, 2008 5:34 PM EST up reply actions

Re: Looking forward to next offseason?

Dollars are worth a whole lot less than they were a few years ago. Gas tripling and minimum wage going up almost 50% makes the value of the dollar a lot less.

by Homer on Feb 9, 2008 8:08 PM EST up reply actions