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The High Price of Being Cheap

Kris Benson's long road back from injury took a detour today, as the veteran right-hander missed a scheduled start with an unspecified ailment he self-diagnosed as biceps tendinitis. Meanwhile, Kyle Lohse slips on his Cardinals uniform after signing a one-year deal with St. Louis for a bit over $4 million plus incentives. ESPN analyst Keith Law praises the Cards for the move:

Kyle Lohse's one-year contract with St. Louis is well below his early-offseason demands, but Lohse has posted league-average ERAs in two hitters' parks since coming over to the NL in the middle of 2006. He's always been a guy with better stuff than his results would indicate, but moving to a neutral park and to a team with several plus up-the-middle defenders (Cesar Izturis, Yadier Molina and perhaps Colby Rasmus) should all help him perform better than that. One year and $4.25 million for 180-200 innings of league-average or better pitching is an unbelievable bargain, and another feather in the cap of new Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, who's done a nice job in a difficult situation and avoided long-term commitments in a bad pitching market this winter.

Over at BackSheGoes.com, TGP poster MattS suggests that the Phillies were "afraid of having 6 starters." I think this is correct, with the slight modification that their real fear was "paying for six starters." Once they made their deal for Benson, the door closed on a Lohse return.

The problem is that Lohse projects for about 2.5 Wins Above Replacement Player (see here for the definition of WARP) in 2008, according to Baseball Prospectus; by comparison, Adam Eaton comes in at 1.7 (and BP is more optimistic about him than anyone else), Travis Blackley is under 1, Chad Durbin a bit over 1, and Benson himself at 0.6.

But at least the owners won't be out that $4 million and change for the ingrate Lohse. They sure showed him.

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Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
I'd say they're "penny-wise, pound-foolish," but with Adam Eaton's contract (as well as others), it's more that they're "penny-dumb, pound-foolish."

by David S. Cohen on Mar 17, 2008 5:16 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
I wrote about this earlier, too. I think Boras might be an explanation for the Phillies ignoring Lohse.

The only plausible reasoning I can think of is Scott Boras. He and the Phillies have a bitter past (think J.D. Drew on draft day), and the two sides may have just been unwilling to negotiate with each other. If this explanation is actually true, then this is a colossal failure to do right by the people who keep the team in business. The front office owes it to the fans and to the players to put together the best team they can to attempt to win a World Series. Lohse, a league-average pitcher who would slot in at #5 in the Phillies rotation, gives the team a noticeably better chance at accomplishing that goal. Teams kill for a league-average pitcher at the back of the rotation, and Lohse was asking for well below market value!

by Baerwcb on Mar 17, 2008 5:55 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
If it's true that the Phils offered Lohse a three-year, $21 million deal in December, and the pitcher and Boras turned it down then, I guess that might have renewed some of the bad blood from the Drew days. Otherwise, I'd been under the impression that was no longer a factor.

by dajafi on Mar 17, 2008 6:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
I hate being fatalistic, but really, how much worse could this offseason have been? bullpen looks horrible, the rotation looks just as bad, and there's even reason to worry about the offense (although I'm doing my best to repress that). as if that wasn't bad enough, MIKE HAMPTON IS PITCHING! EFFECTIVELY! (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=280317124&prov=ap)

I mean, come on.

by perfectdepth on Mar 17, 2008 6:05 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
We added a starter in Brett Myers.  We added a closer in Lidge.

We added offense and defense in Feliz and Jenkins.

Pretty good off-season.  The reason the bullpen sucked so much last year was because everyone was hurt.

Lidge, Romero, Madson, and Gordon.  There is only room for one or two or three more guys and one of those guys will likely be Chad Durbin.

Defend and Repeat 2008.

by j42justin on Mar 22, 2008 9:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
you can't say we added a starter in myers AND a closer in lidge.  either we added a closer and transferred myers, or we added a starter in myers and swithed myers in for lidge.  you can't double count.

by MattS on Mar 24, 2008 12:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
Almost every team in the NL is a contender.  Most of them lack starting pitching depth.  Doesn't it seem strange that a team with one of the smallest chances of being any good is the team that signs Lohse.  Where were the Mets or the Braves or Colorado or one of the other maybe teams?

 

by smitty on Mar 17, 2008 6:15 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
     I think everyone needs to take a deep breath and calm down.  Instead of harping on some ST negatives, lets take a look at our considerable positives.  The Phillies scored the second most runs in all of major league baseball last season.  The '07 offense returns relatively intact.  We lost a good bit of offense from Rowand, however, I feel the Jenkins/Werth platoon will essentially make the entire situation a wash.  The only position where we got below league average production last year was third base, and I do not see that situation being any worst (impossible, right?).  Finally, the biggest positive is that we are returning Burell, Victorino, Rollins, Howard, Utley and Ruiz; all of which are entering their primes.  Another happy note, Howard, Utley and Victorino all missed large portions of the '07 seasons, hopefully that will not happen again.  
     Our defense is not great, but is certainly not poor.  I would say 4/5 of our infield is well above average defensively, while we have only one defensive star in the outfield, luckily in center.   Another good sign, we are very strong up the middle.  The defense of Ruiz, Rollins, Utley and Victorino is pretty darn good.  In fact, I can't remember the last time we were stronger up the gut.  
     The pitching.  Oh, the pitching.  Lets see if I can find some positives.  We have one of the greatest young pitching stars in the game to anchor our rotation (forget about opening day this and opening day that), and he is a lefty too in Hamels.  Following Hamels is Myers, who in his last two seasons as a starter ('05 and '06) pitched a combined 413.3 innings with a 3.81 era and 397 strikeouts.  Our one-two punch may not be the most dangerous in the league, but it is certainly formidable.  Following Hamels and Myers is Moyer.  Moyer has posted era's of 3.27, 5.21, 4.28, 4.3 and 5.01 in his last 5 seaons.  His lowest innings pitched in those 5 years is 199.3.  Everybody is taking the pessimistic view with Moyer saying he is too old, he will fall off of a cliff, he can't make it through the entire year...  Really?  I ask why.  He has never been dependent on his "stuff", so why should his age matter?  Has he ever shown a glimpse of breaking down or being injured?  No.  I say the Philadelphia native is good for another 200 innings of sub-5 era production.  The final two spots in our rotation do not look pretty, do not get me wrong.  But, instead of seeing what could go wrong, lets look at what could go right.  Why can't Kendrick duplicate his success from '07 (I am very pessimistic about this one)?  Why can't Eaton pitch to his career averages?  Why can't Carrasco/Outman/Happ/Carpenter/Savery catch lightning in a bottle and be this years staff savior (I am most excited about Happ)?  Finally, why can't Benson return in May and be a fantastic number 5 in our rotation?  Our bullpen looks shaky but it could turn out to be pretty good.  I do not see why Lidge isn't a premier closer in this league, I fully expect him to be.  Also, with Romero, Madson and Flash as the setup men, I don't see any reason why the Phillies can't shut the door on opponents when Charlie turns the ball over to the 'pen with a lead.  
    Everyone is harping on the negatives, I just feel like by doing so, people are forgetting our many positives.  Sure, the Mets and the Braves look good from a distance.  But up close, both of our division rivals have as many warts and blemishes as we do.  The Mets are compiled of men who are about to go on social security as soon as the season ends, and yet we are the ones worrying about injuries?  And the Braves, yeah they look pretty good, and I have said in the past not to sleep on them, but lets have a look see at their blemishes.  This is a team that has lost Jones, Renteria and numerous bullpen arms to trades/free agency/injury, added Tom Glavine (maybe it is just me, but I was happy when the Phils got to face Glavine last year) and are depending on Chipper and Mike Hampton to be injury free and effective!  Please, give me a break.  Am I afraid of either of those teams?  No way in hell.  This isn't to say I think the Phils are the favorites, but neither are the Mets or Braves.  Let's quit worrying and play some ball...

by Neduol Caz on Mar 18, 2008 3:14 PM EDT   0 recs

Re: The High Price of Being Cheap
This does sum up the upside pretty well. The bullpen is actually way down my list of concerns--I have a decent amount of faith in the front four, and the last three relievers are always a scramble; if not, you've paid too much for them.

My issues are the rotation, the cheapness and myopia of the front office, and concern that the team's psyche is way ahead of its accomplishments, in that order.

by dajafi on Mar 18, 2008 4:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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