Conlin connects again

by dajafi on Mar 28, 2008 12:19 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

He's still a jerk, but the old man is on a roll:

During a winter conversation [...] I mentioned a college pitcher with the Clearwater Threshers last season, Drew Carpenter, who won 19 games, including two in the Florida State League Championship Series. "Don't know much about him," Charlie said. "Our people say he don't throw that hard."

So that brings us to nonroster Drew Carpenter shutting out a Yankees varsity lineup Wednesday in a mature, four-inning, six-strikeout relief appearance.

Here's a capsule summary of why the Phillies have had the worst pitcher development track record in baseball history:

Carpenter was not put on the 40-man roster despite winning more games than any '07 minor league pitcher. Why? Apparently, Andrew gained too much offseason weight, which raises this question: How did John Kruk ever get invited to spring training? Or Tony Gwynn? Thus, Carpenter was not invited to major league spring training. Thus, Charlie Manuel had to wait until the final Bright House Field exhibition to find out what many already knew: The big guy from Long Beach State really knows how to pitch. Unfortunately, whichever incompetent signed off on this blunder will keep his job. A higher-level incompetent will make sure of that.

Now, here's the irony: The 2007 Paul Owens Award for top minor league pitcher was won by Michael Zagurski, a fat lefthander with the worst body in the organization.

Carpenter--who should have won the Owens award that somehow went to Zagurski-- might or might not get to Philadelphia before the all-star break. He might or might not take a role similar to what Kyle Kendrick did last year, and might or might not have a similar level of success. But the organization's baffling decision to keep the kid away from big-league camp--cutting off his torso to spite the whole body--means that the manager and his staff will eventually make that decision with less complete information than they should have.

The line on Carpenter, a second-round pick from the 2006 draft, has always been that he has middling stuff but "knows how to pitch." This is sort of the opposite of the classic "projectable" Phils pitching prospect, who boasts superior stuff but questionable command and mound demeanor; based on his spring performance, Josh Outman is a decent representative of this type. The problem is that you don't want to throw that guy, with his longer developmental path, into the fire when Adam Eaton proves beyond any remaining doubt that he stinks; you want someone with a lower ceiling but a higher floor. Like Drew Carpenter.

I need not add what Kyle Lohse did yesterday, right?

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Poor decision-making by the Phillies front office? Egads!

Watching Kyle Lohse this season will be like looking through a Victoria's Secret catalog and finding your ex-girlfriend.

Or something like that.

http://crashburnalley.com/

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 28, 2008 1:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

don't forget Eaton

Add to watching Lohse the pain of watching Eaton, and it's going to be tough.

by David S. Cohen on Mar 28, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure what Conlin's point is here. Why should the club put him on the 40 man roster when they don't have to? Why should he have been with the big club during spring training? He was in single A last year. He's not a dominant pitcher. He's almost certainly not ready for the big show.

He pitched four really good innings in a spring game. He also loaded the bases with no one out and got out of the inning because he got to face guys like Chris Woodward instead of real big league hitters. That won't happen in the real games and that's why spring games aren't really all that good for evaluation.

Jim Nash and Gary Neibauer and Dave Downs and plenty of guys pitched a good game for the Phils once. Rosario pitched some good innings this spring too. It doesn't mean they were any good. And Carpenter's spring appearance with the big club, while very nice, shouldn't mean all that much either.

It's possible that Carpenter can be this season's Kendrick. Given the sorry looking state of the Phils starters right now, he might get his chance. But Kendrick wasn't in the big league camp last year either. And he really shouldn't have been.

by smitty99 on Mar 28, 2008 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Exactly. Conlin didn't "nail" this -- he just showed that he doesn't understand roster management.

by phatj on Mar 28, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my point

Was just that he should have been in big-league camp--not necessarily for him to start the season with the Phils, not in place of Carrasco and Outman and Savery, but so Manuel and Dubee could get a more complete sense of who he is than the possibly distorted view of what he did against the Yankees, and his 2007 numbers. Though the other guys are (very slightly) closer to MLB based on where they finished last season, I think it's a commonly held view that Carpenter would have a better chance to succeed if called upon to do something like what Kendrick (and Segovia, and Happ) were called upon to last year. But we're guessing, and since Manuel and his staff didn't get to watch the guy every day for seven weeks, they're unfortunately guessing as well.

I never get too worked up over 40-man roster decisions (except when, e.g. they lose Derrick Turnbow in the Rule 5 because someone thought Alex Arias was a key guy), so that isn't my issue here.

by dajafi on Mar 28, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

eh...

He probably should have been in the big camp (there would have been no downside, after all). But none of us were outraged about it when the decision was made at the beginning of the spring, even though we knew all about Carpenter, so I don't think we can suddenly start being outraged now. There would have been a small benefit to having him in camp, but I don't see what the great loss is in not having had him there. Manuel and Dubee will be given fuller scouting reports when the need arises, and Gillick & co. who actually make the personnel decisions already have a more complete picture.

Also, the pitching development record over the past ten years or so hasn't been great, but it hasn't been terrible either. Someone's got to clue Conlin in on the fact that his memories from the Hugh Alexander era aren't relevant anymore.

by taco pal on Mar 28, 2008 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hey neato

I wasn't sure I liked this new software at first because the layout just seemed too busy for my tastes. But now after used the commenting function - pretty snazzy...

by taco pal on Mar 28, 2008 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

I'm having a similar reaction. I was fearful until about noon today, now I'm kind of into it...

And the Phils' development of Myers and Hamels almost has to put them above the "worst" designation that Conlin applies. Once might be a fluke; twice is pretty strongly indicative they're doing something right.

by dajafi on Mar 28, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs