Prediction Time!

by David S. Cohen on Mar 28, 2008 1:07 PM EDT

With Opening Day just a few days away, it's time for the Good Phight season prediction thread. How will the Phils do this year? Let's hear from you on the following things:

Wins:

Runs scored:

Runs allowed:

Team stolen base %:

Hitter with most HR:

Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats):

Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings):

Pitcher with most saves:

NL East champion:

World Series champion:

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Wins: 90

Runs scored: 907

Runs allowed: 834

Team stolen base %: 79

Hitter with most HR: Howard, 54

Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Burrell, .392

Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Hamels, 3.11

Pitcher with most saves: Lidge, 33

NL East champion: Mets

World Series champion: Rockies

http://crashburnalley.com/

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 28, 2008 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

OOPS!

I read the last category wrong. I think the Indians will win the World Series, and they'll beat the Rockies, so they're the NL Champions.

http://crashburnalley.com/

by Crashburn Alley on Mar 28, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Wins: 87
Runs Scored: 853
Runs Allowed: 820
Stolen Base %: .862
Hitter W/ most HR: Howard (51)
Highest OBP: Utley (.406)
Pitcher w/ lowest ERA: Madson (2.30)
Pitcher w/ most saves: Madson (13) ties with Lidge (13)
NL East champion: Mets
WS champion: Tigers

by FuquaManuel on Mar 28, 2008 1:48 PM EDT reply actions

call me a homer, but...

Wins: 94

Runs scored: 875

Runs allowed: 827

Team stolen base %: 84

Hitter with most HR: Howard (58)

Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Burrell .400

Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Mad Dog 2.85

Pitcher with most saves: Lidge (35)

NL East champion: Phils

World Series champion: Detriot Rock City

by phillywriter21 on Mar 28, 2008 2:09 PM EDT reply actions

March Optimism

I can't help but be an optimist this time of year.

Wins: 92
Runs scored: 925
Runs allowed: 805
Team stolen base %: 84
Hitter with most HR: Howard (51)
Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Howard (.435)
Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Lidge (1.90)
Pitcher with most saves: Lidge (28)
NL East champion: Phillies
World Series champion: Phillies

Howard will rebound closer to 2006 performance, Burrell will finally put together a full season of MVP-like performance, Victorino will make us say Aaron-who?, Hamels and Myers will be strong enough to make up for the weakness at the back of the rotation, and the bullpen will be much improved, anchored by a dominant Lidge and a healthy Madson.

by phatj on Mar 28, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions

wow

that is optimistic.

And I guess you think Eaton is going to string together 34 starts, and 200 innings with a 4.00 ERA?

by FuquaManuel on Mar 28, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

huh?

805 ER would mean an ERA in the 4.6's. Is that optimistic? If Eaton just cuts his ERA to 5 or so, and 08Kendrick = 07Kendrick+07Garcia, and everyone else just repeats, that should be enough right there.

by taco pal on Mar 28, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

woops

I meant to say 805 R, not ER.

805 ER would mean something close to 900 R. There's no way things are going to get that bad.

by taco pal on Mar 28, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Moreso

If Howard hits 47 homers and has an OBP% of .435, he is going to be NL MVP.

Also, if Lidge has an ERA of 1.90 and throws over 50 innings and just 28 saves, then the Phils are winning a TON of games in extra innings.

by jonk on Mar 28, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

who knows?

Wins: 86
Runs Scored: 899
Runs Allowed: 831
Stolen Base %: .817
Hitter W/ most HR: Howard (54)
Highest OBP: Howard (.403)
Pitcher w/ lowest ERA: Myers (3.36)
Pitcher w/ most saves: Lidge (18)
NL East champion: Mets
WS champion: Indians

by dajafi on Mar 28, 2008 2:23 PM EDT reply actions

here we go

Wins: 91
Runs scored: 880
Runs allowed: 808 (can't imagine they won't at least be better than last yr)
Team stolen base %: 87.9
Hitter with most HR: Howard
Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Burrell
Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Madson
Pitcher with most saves: Lidge
NL East champion: Phillies (I feel obligated)
World Series champion: Boston (puke)

by taco pal on Mar 28, 2008 2:56 PM EDT reply actions

pooper

Wins: 85
Runs scored: 870
Runs allowed: 850
Team stolen base %: 84%
Hitter with most HR: Howard
Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Howard
Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Hamels
Pitcher with most saves: Lidge
NL East champion: Mets
World Series champion: Red Sox

by r.qatar on Mar 29, 2008 12:08 AM EDT reply actions

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while...

Wins: 90
Runs Scored: 901
Runs Allowed: 811
Team Stolen Base Percentage: .832
Hitter with Most HR: Howard, 55
Hitter with Highest OBP: Utley, .411
Pitcher with Lowest ERA: Lidge, 2.65
Pitcher with Most Saves: Lidge, 38
NL East Champion: The schmucks about two hours north of us...
World Series Champion: The schmucks about six hours north of us...

by Neduol Caz on Mar 29, 2008 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

Wins: 85
Runs scored: 894
Runs allowed: 866
Team stolen base %: 80%
Hitter with most HR: Howard
Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Howard
Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Myers
Pitcher with most saves: Lidge
NL East champion: Phils
World Series champion: D-backs (over tigers)

what do we get if we win?

by char6587 on Mar 29, 2008 2:00 AM EDT reply actions

how do you figure?

How do you figure that the Phils can possibly win the division with 85 wins? The Mets are at the very least a 94 win team. Not to mention that the Braves should win no fewer than 88 games.

by FuquaManuel on Mar 29, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed...

I am not sure about the 94 wins for the mets, injuries could easily derail that team. But I mostly agree, it should take at least 90 wins to seal the deal.

by Neduol Caz on Mar 29, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions

sorry, i meant 95 wins--not 85, of course

by char6587 on Mar 29, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Pythagorus

That should be an 84-win team based on runs scored and allowed. 95 would be nearly as amazing as what the Diamondbacks did last year.

by phatj on Mar 29, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Wins: 94

Runs scored: 940 (5.8 per)

Runs allowed: 745 (4.6 per)

Team stolen base %: 84

Hitter with most HR: Ryan Howard- 53

Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Ryan Howard .440

Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Ryan Madson- 2.35

Pitcher with most saves: Brad Lidge- 34

NL East champion: Phillies

World Series champion: Phillies

The Phils will actually increase run production this year and Howard will bounce back big time for a 3rd consecutive Phillie as MVP. Utley will finish top 3 in voting as well. Hamels and Myers will combine for 35 wins, 12-14 for Kendrick, 10 from Moyer and 3 for Eaton/8 for Benson. By midseason Gordon will be 7th inning pitcher with Madson/Romero holding down the 8th. Brad Lidge will have 34 saves with about 7 blown saves. Jimmy Rollins and Shane will combine for 80 steals.

by schrifty on Mar 29, 2008 10:59 AM EDT reply actions

Sounds good...

I hope everything you said comes true. I just wanted to point out that the pyth' on your suggested run differential has the Phillies as a 100 win team...

by Neduol Caz on Mar 29, 2008 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions

Predictions

Wins: 87
Runs scored: 905
Runs allowed: 870
Team stolen base %: 80
Hitter with most HR: Ryan Howard
Hitter with highest OBP (over 150 at-bats): Ryan Howard (is this a trick question)
Pitcher with lowest ERA (over 50 innings): Ryan Madson
Pitcher with most saves: Tom Gordon
NL East champion: NY Mets
World Series champion: Arizona Diamondbacks

by c60 on Mar 30, 2008 10:30 PM EDT reply actions