What Might Have Been: Randy Wolf
Baseball Prospectus has a new daily feature looking at games of interest. I haven't been checking it out, partly because workload has been such that time has been at a premium and partly because while I don't mind content with an expiration date, "ten hours from now" is a little quick for me.
Today's story, though, has a fascinating and depressing look at how the Phillies ruined lefty Randy Wolf. Without further ado, here it is:
Wolf offers a prime case of what might have been. One of the most promising arms ever developed by the Phillies organization lately, Wolf was overworked early in his career, as one can see from the progression of his player comments from the Baseball Prospectus annuals:
1999: Uberprospect who faced a dangerously high workload at SWB this year...should be a very good pitcher if the Phils haven't ruined him; if they have, the entire organization should be canned, because they just wasted their best pitching prospect this decade...
2000: Here’s the perfect example of how not to handle a young pitcher. Wolf was still working on polishing his curve at Triple-A when injuries forced the Phillies to call him up to the majors. They then rode him hard, frequently letting him throw well over 100 pitches. If he doesn’t burn out...he’s going to be an outstanding pitcher. Unless the team changes its approach to handling pitchers, that’s not going to happen.
Wolf threw 107 pitches in his major league debut at the age of 22, on June 11, then 119 and 116 in his next two starts. He continued to be worked like a dog throughout the sweltering Philadelphia summer, throwing over 100 pitches in 17 of his 20 starts, over 110 in 10, and over 120 three times, including a 133 pitch effort on August 6.
2001: Terry Francona’s legacy may be the destruction of Randy Wolf’s star potential. If he has survived the abuse, Wolf could be a fun pitcher to watch for years to come because he has four good pitches thrown at four different speeds...Unfortunately, Bowa will likely finish the job Francona started.
2000 offered more of the same for Wolf: 27 of 32 starts over 100 pitches, 19 of 110 or more, and 11 of 120 or more, including outings in which he threw 131 and 134 pitches. He finished fifth in the majors in Pitcher Abuse Points (PAP) at the age of 23, behind Randy Johnson, Livan Hernandez, Rick Helling, and Al Leiter.
2002: As badly as Wolf was abused in 2000 and in the early going of 2001, he seemed to recover his arm strength during his demotion to the bullpen, returning to post a 2.19 ERA and allow just 62 base runners in 70 innings over ten post-break starts. On talent alone, Wolf is among the NL’s best young pitchers; by the end of 2002, he’ll either be a Cy Young contender or he’ll have a torn labrum.
On back-to-back starts in early May of '01, Wolf threw 138 and then 119 pitches, then a start later, followed that up with 124- and 128-pitch efforts.
2003: After a case of elbow tendonitis in the spring, Wolf was among the best pitchers in the majors in the second half. If he stays healthy, and with a good chance at a whole lot of runs being scored for him, a Cy Young isn’t out of the question.
In 2002, Wolf was a worthy Cy Young contender, thanks to a fantastic August-September in which he lowered his ERA from 3.95 to 3.20. From August 16-31, Wolf made three starts in which he pitched 26 innings without allowing a run; that success came at a price, however, producing pitch counts of 126, 124, and 117.
2004: On July 23 last year, Wolf was staring at the possibility of a Cy Young award, sitting at 11-5 with a 3.07 ERA. He threw a four-hit shutout against the Cubs that day, striking out 13 while throwing 132 pitches -- well above his 99 pitch per game average. In his next six starts, he allowed 33 runs in 30 innings; for the rest of the season; his ERA was 6.61. Was it worth the shutout?
And there you have it. Randy Wolf's career displays the startling length that teams have come in the past ten years in terms of better handling of young pitchers. Following that critical turn in 2003, Wolf has never been the same; he threw 136 2/3 innings in 2004, 80 in '05, and 56 2/3 in '07, ending his Phillies tenure. Last year he bounced back somewhat with the Dodgers, but still managed only 18 starts and 102 2/3 innings with an ERA above league average. Wolf is still just 31, and San Diego's big ballpark is a great place to revive a career, but it is doubtful he can recapture the potential greatness that was squeezed out of him.
Have the Phillies as an organization learned their lesson? The evidence is unclear but mildly encouraging: Cole Hamels, an even higher-ceiling homegrown lefty, was just 42nd in Pitcher Abuse Points in 2007, and his maximum-pitch outing was 117. In his rookie year of 2006, Hamels was 68th, with a max-pitch game of 116. Charlie Manuel has been similarly sparing of Kyle Kendrick, the only other rookie starter of note he's had for an extended stretch.
As the mighty phuturephillies writes elsewhere today, this is an issue of ongoing importance for a Phillies organization rich in pitching prospects and looking at some rotation openings in the big leagues within the near future.
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another thing
I wonder if it was this mishandling, rather than or in addition to the speculated reasons of wanting to stay out west or pitch in larger parts, that prompted Wolf to choose the Dodgers and Padres over the Phils as a free agent these last two off-seasons.
by dajafi on Apr 15, 2008 4:25 PM EDT 0 recs
Dajafi, it sounded like Wolf was sad about leaving Philly in favor of returning “home” to the West Coast for less money. I don’t think it was how they used him in games that made him leave, it was just homesickness.
I wonder if Charlie Manuel uses his younger pitchers lightly because of the statistical analysis that has come about recently, or if it’s simply a coincidence. He seems like a bright guy despite popular opinion, so I’m going to assume he’s gone over the analysis before.
Good post, Dajafi.
http://crashburnalley.com/
by Crashburn Alley on Apr 15, 2008 5:09 PM EDT 0 recs
could be
It wouldn’t come as a surprise to me that Manuel is attuned to the thinking about not being reckless with young pitchers. Another (arguably preferable) possibility is that someone upstairs told him to handle the young arms with great care. Was Gillick Seattle’s GM when they lost what seemed like a roster’s worth of pitchers to injuries?
by dajafi on
Apr 15, 2008 7:39 PM EDT
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Relief?
It also appears that Gillick has done a better job giving his manager at least half decent arms to use in the pen. Better than what Francona had at least.
Could that be somewhat of a factor here as well? Bottom line is that a manager is judged on how many games he wins, not necessarily if he ruins a pitcher over the course of several years. Francona is possibly the greatest example of this. Here’s clear evidence on how Francona did a poor job handling Wolf, but now with 2 rings on his hand will you find anyone willing to say Chico is a bad manager?
Honestly I can’t blame a guy for sticking with(abusing) a starter if he’s pitching well when he has no confidence in his bullpen. If his bullpen is constantly blowing games, that manager won’t be around to benefit from the pitcher’s success later on in his career.
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by JasonB on
Apr 15, 2008 10:15 PM EDT
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I doubt Manuel thinks a whole lot about statistical analysis while he makes his decisions, but if his instincts happen to coincide with it, there’s nothing wrong with that.
On a somewhat related note, I’m becoming more and more disturbed by the increasing prominence that Mitch WIlliams is getting in the local sports media. With his perches on both radio and TV, the man is on his way to turning himself into a mini local franchise. The average WIP-listening fan on the street these days thinks Mitch is the city’s foremost authority on pitching, and that isn’t a good thing.
I’m sure the Phillies front office and coaching staff doesn’t care about Mitch’s opinions per se. But I think Mitch affects popular opinion, and may have a greater and greater effect on it as time goes by. And popular opinion can work insidiously. Teams can be affected by it in small, gradual ways, even if they don’t think they’re listening to it.
This past Saturday, I tuned in to Mitch’s radio show for a few minutes, just long enough to hear him have the following exchange with a caller.
CALLER: The best move Gillick made this offseason is picking up Rudy Seanez, because now that makes Ryan Madson expendable!
WILLIAMS: Absolutely.
This all had to do with Madson’s statement to the press about how he didn’t want to pitch back-to-back days while his arm was sore because he didn’t want to put his career in jeopardy. Mitch spent a lot of time ripping on him for that, and talking about how when he used to pitch for Bobby Valentine in Texas he would sometimes have to pitch four days in a row and he never complained about it, yada yada.
by taco pal on Apr 15, 2008 10:04 PM EDT 0 recs
The reaction annoyed me
Madson was probably out of line taking his gripes to the press… but he didn’t come off as selfish or a whiner to me. He came off as a guy who knows his body and is listening to what it’s telling him.
I have no problem with that.
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by JasonB on
Apr 15, 2008 10:10 PM EDT
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meanwhile...
Wolfy has a no-hitter through six, per the late BBTN. But he’s at 99 pitches, so I’m assuming he won’t get to try and finish it, particularly given that SD is up 6-0.
I still love the guy and hope he wins 20 games. Just not against the Phils, of course.
Not living in Philly, I don’t have a sense of Williams as a broadcaster but I thought I’d heard or read that he’s decent. Maybe not.
by dajafi on Apr 16, 2008 12:16 AM EDT 0 recs
With Floyd and Wolf
flirting with no-no’s, my money is on Lohse to take one into the 9th in his next start.
by ken on
Apr 16, 2008 10:17 AM EDT
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Taylor Buchholz is doing well too
Out of the pen for the Rocks.
by taco pal on
Apr 16, 2008 11:28 AM EDT
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williams
He’s a good broadcaster in the sense that he’s articulate and keeps things interesting. Also he actually has some insightful things to say about hitting every now and then. It’s ironic, because on pitching he’s a disaster. He’s knowledgeable about mechanics and stuff like that of course, but he seems to view pitching as a tough man competition.
I forgot to mention that I also heard him say he’s still fully confident Kyle Kendrick will win 15 this year. Maybe he knows something we don’t, but given his track record I doubt it.
by taco pal on
Apr 16, 2008 11:28 AM EDT
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At 113 pitches right now. Money for my fantasy team.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Apr 16, 2008 12:29 AM EDT 0 recs
That 132 pitch game
That was an abomination. Bowa should be sued by Wolf over that.
by David S. Cohen on Apr 18, 2008 5:12 PM EDT 0 recs









