The Frightening Brilliance (or Uncanny Luck) of Charlie Manuel
Somewhat lost after Pat Burrell's 9th-inning heroics last night was the key run the Phillies scored in the 8th to cut the Rockies lead to 6-5. It was driven in by Greg Dobbs' pinch-single, which continued a remarkable April run by Phillies pinch-hitters this April.
Through 21 games, Phils' pinch-hitters have put up the following line: .316/.381/.579. They've blasted three home runs (Snelling, Dobbs, Feliz) and knocked in 8. Dobbs (4 for 9, HR, 5 RBI) is leading the charge, but eight Phillies have hits off the bench, including Cole Hamels and, alas, Jimmy Rollins.
The Phils lead the league in pinch-hitting by an absurd margin. The next-best team in terms of triple-slash numbers is the Braves, with a .219/.306/.406 mark through the early going. The rest of the NL has four pinch-homers to the Phils' 3. Dobbs has as many or more pinch-hits than five NL teams.
In today's Inquirer, Phillies subs give Charlie Manuel--a bench guy himself in his playing days--credit for knowing which late-game buttons to push . But Manuel's late-game strategery--never previously considered one of his strong suits as a manager--has another dimension as well.
The Phillies' bullpen leads the NL with a 2.76 ERA, 32 points better than the Marlins' next-best figure.
I'll write that again, because I don't entirely believe it myself: the Phillies have the best bullpen ERA in the NL, at 2.76.
Now, they haven't been perfect, as four losses clearly indicate. And they've walked 35. And I'm pretty sure the collective relief ERA won't stay below 3. But there's also reason to believe this early success represents something real, not just early-season illusion. Collectively, the Phils' relievers have pitched 65.1 IP, the third-fewest in the league. The starters--who, as a group, have been middle-of-the-pack--generally have gone deep enough into games not to overburden the bullpen. Chad Durbin (10 games, 14 IP) and J.C. Romero (10 games, 9.2 IP) have borne the heaviest workloads, but Durbin as a former starter and Romero as a situational guy are probably better prepared to handle that than anyone else in the 'pen.
Manuel's deployment of these relievers has been superb. After Tom Gordon got crushed on Opening Day, Manuel didn't lose faith in him, and since that inauspicious season debut, Flash has been mostly excellent (2.45 ERA, 10 K/3 BB in 7.1 IP). Brad Lidge--whose injury the Phillies handled as well as they botched Rollins'--has started to show why he was considered the league's most dominant closer three years ago. New pickup Rudy Seanez has walked seven, but still has a spotless ERA.
The line on Manuel--and certainly my take on him--has been that he's a good manager overall for his work in the clubhouse, but that he's far from a master strategist between the white lines. His use of the bench and bullpen through the early going in 2008, though, suggests that either he's been very lucky through the first 21 games, or that we've severely under-rated him.
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Not buying it... yet
Let’s look back in another couple of months and see where we stand.
I realize that the bullpen and bench have a lot of new faces, but Manuel was pushing the buttons the last couple of years and the results were very, very different.
by phatj on
Apr 23, 2008 12:20 PM EDT
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That’s fair. But even within those seasons, I had the view that Manuel was able to learn from mistakes: the pinch-hit ABs squandered on the likes of Tomas Perez and Noonerz tended to drop as the season went along, and he was willing to marginalize mistake acquisitions like Barajas. Maybe that trend of improvement has just continued in a larger sense.
by dajafi on
Apr 23, 2008 12:51 PM EDT
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Great Set Up
I don’t buy ours as the best bullpen (no way Rudy Seanez and Durbin keep it up, given their wildness and “hittability” respectively), but Manuel has accidentally stumbled into a highly optimal bullpen situation, in terms of roles-using Gordon as setup, Lidge as closer, and most importantly, J.C. Romero in the “fireman” or “bullpen ace” slot-as long as his control doesn’t eat him alive, you can bring him into tight spots and expect a GB or K, have him pitch 2 innings against your arch rival, and pitch him 4 out of 5 days or more down the stretch. Never good to give out 4 year contracts to pitchers, but I’m pretty damn glad we have him for this year, at least.
The pinch hitting seems to be the result of both luck (duh), and having an offensive-minded backup catcher and two platoon situations on the roster. Though I have challenged a couple of Manuel’s button-pushes, his willingness to empty the roster last night was very encouraging—I feel like most managers are too conservative when it comes to saving the backup infielder, the backup catcher, etc. when the worst that can happen is playing a guy like Feliz out of position a couple innings and losing a game you were on your way to losing anyway.
by bugbear on
Apr 23, 2008 1:38 PM EDT
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Good point
That’s a great point about the way the bullpen roles are set up. Of course, if any of the big three gets hurt or otherwise loses effectiveness, it might all fall apart.
by phatj on
Apr 23, 2008 1:47 PM EDT
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Really good post. But I think the point is that Seanez and Durbin-who have definitely pitched in some fantastic luck, as I suspect their BABIP rates would bear out-don’t have to be stoppers. They (and Madson) just have to be good more often than not, so long as (to j’s point) the big three relievers keep on keepin’ on.
I agree that Romero in particular has been shockingly good so far.
by dajafi on
Apr 23, 2008 1:54 PM EDT
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I’m happy Burrell was actually in the game in that spot. Before we talk too highly of Cholly’s managerial nuance, lets try and guess how many late game heroics Pat could have been a part of had he still been in the game over the past few years?
by JasonB on
Apr 23, 2008 1:45 PM EDT
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Just a few things to add...
Romero signed a three year contract I believe, not four as previously mentioned by bug. Bug also makes a good point as to why our bench has been so good. The platoon in left field has allowed Werth or Jenkins to be on the bench. Even though Victorino is hurt and Werth plays everyday now, Jenkins is still coming off the bench most nights as Charlie is looking for some speed at the top of the lineup with STG. Also, Dobbs and STG have been very good pinch hitters throughout their careers, so I see no reason why that should be deemed luck this year. Finally, Coste is an awesome bat to have coming off of the bench. He just always seems to understand the situation and adjust his at bat accordingly. Really smart player, that is my perception anyway. And as I am writing this, I am getting more and more excited to see our offense perform in the warm summer months when Rollins and Victorino are back. I don’t think the Met’s or Brave’s offenses even come close.
by Neduol Caz on
Apr 23, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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This is supposed to make Manuel look good? This is an indictment. He bench is hitting, his relievers are throwing great, he has two guys lighting it up offensively and this team is just 11-11. Putting a lefty in to face a righty is a no-brainer. I am glad that Manuel is equivalent to a guy with no brain. But these guys are playing so well and we are still losing. Howard is partially to blame (Manuel is the hitter’s dream, no?).
Let me put the numbers up and look at it simplistically.
Phils OPS for: .800
Phils OPS against: .709
Phils bench: #1
Phils bullpen: #1
Phils record: 11-11
Hmmm…
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on
Apr 24, 2008 12:42 AM EDT
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You're Missing Fielding
The Phillies have made 21 errors this season, second only to the Pirates. These errors have led to 15 unearned runs, plus some “earned” runs that probably shouldn’t be counted (missed DPs, etc.).
Right now, the Phillies have scored 106 runs and allowed 99. This gives them a PE wins of 11.5. Had they allowed no unearned runs, their PE wins is 13.6.
While it’s definitely unreasonable to say a team should give up no earned runs, I’d still say the Phillies fielding bears some blame for sitting at .500 despite their lopsided OPS/OPS against numbers.
by christonabike on
Apr 24, 2008 3:01 AM EDT
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I mentioned this before, and while I was concerned about it, Baaseball Prospectus has us as the 3rd best fielding team in the league in turning balls in play into outs. Yeah, we have made some errors, but we have also made more good plays on balls that should have landed than most other teams. That is the problem with fielding percentage as it ignores the stuff you do above and beyond league average.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on
Apr 24, 2008 3:12 AM EDT
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Brilliant job Manuel did tonight. Leaving Hamels in for the 8th after he was already over 100 pitches and Durbin was warming. After a brilliant performance through 7 Hamels comes out for the 8th and gives up a 2 run shot to Fielder when we had a 1 run lead. Not to mention that the moron took out Burrell after 7 again. I would have been furious if Burrell’s spot came up in the top of the 9th and we would have had to endure T.J. Bohn in his stead. But alas, only 1 of Manuel’s brain farts ended up killing us tonight.
by FuquaManuel on
Apr 24, 2008 1:06 AM EDT
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Yeah, his moves last night weren’t very well timed to support my argument ;)
So maybe it was luck. I know I wouldn’t have risked Hamels’ health; after Braun doubled to lead off the 8th, I wrote in the game thread on Back She Goes (because our site was down last night) that I was fine with losing the game but saving Cole’s arm, sort of okay with winning the game by extending Cole, and absolutely not okay with sending him back out there to lose the game. Which, of course, is what happened.
by dajafi on
Apr 24, 2008 11:10 AM EDT
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But Charlie went to the well once too many...
In leaving Hamels in for the eight after his logging 110 pitches in seven innings, Charlie was bound to pay the price. Check out http://www.blogging-baseball.com
by blogging-fool on
Apr 24, 2008 1:53 AM EDT
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I sent you a warning and this will be the last one. Please, if you are going to promote your blog, put it into your signature and do not ask people to come to it. Also, please make the effort to add to the conversation rather than to just make a comment so that your blog name appears, otherwise I will have to delete the comment.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on
Apr 24, 2008 3:16 AM EDT
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How Apropos
Indeed FM. Hamels was at 120 pitches and Steve Carlton he aint. It’s not like the BP has been over used for christsake. Charlies comment after the game was it was the right decision leaving Cole in and he would do it again. Oh really !
Another thing is he needs to sit his boy down and tomorrow being a day game on the road would be a good time. Howard is making Richie Sexton look good..well maybe that’s a stretch. Howard is lost big time and I have read 3 times this past week from 3 Phillies saying the same thing “One good swing will get him over the hump, blah, blah, blah”.
by Steve-O- on
Apr 24, 2008 1:55 AM EDT
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