The Downside of Upside: Position Battles
The Phillies have avoided their usual awful April thanks in no small part to the best bench they’ve had in decades. Jayson Werth (.958 OPS, 68 plate appearances), Greg Dobbs (.992, 33 PA), and Chris Coste (1.172 OPS, 31 PA), all projected as platoon guys or subs when the season started, have taken advantage of opportunities to play—and saved the team from the worst effects of an injury to Shane Victorino (.571 OPS, 51 PA) and the early struggles of Geoff Jenkins (.600 OPS, 76 PA), Pedro Feliz (.654 OPS, 82 PA) and Carlos Ruiz (.484 OPS, 62 PA). But with Victorino a few days from returning to action (he's rehabbing in Reading this weekend ), Jenkins and Feliz the club’s two big offseason additions on the positional side, and Ruiz the favorite of Charlie Manuel and the better defender by reputation, how should the club divvy up the playing time?
This is probably where Manuel the strategist versus Manuel the clubhouse leader most comes into play. I don’t think he’s at great risk of “losing” any of these guys; when Pat Burrell was benched last season, he never breathed a word of discontent and came back with a monster second half, and even guys who never escaped the bench—Wes Helms and Rod Barajas—didn’t cause trouble by it. Jenkins, Feliz and Victorino all have great clubhouse reputations, and while I haven’t heard Ruiz discussed either way, a guy who spent as many extra years in the minors as he did without complaining isn’t likely to start doing so now.
So the question is who gives the team the best chance to win, short-term and long-term. Outfield is probably the easiest call here. My take at this point is that Werth, Jenkins and Victorino all should go into a job-share arrangement between center field and right field. Career numbers suggest that the original idea of platooning Jenkins (.878 lifetime OPS vs. RHP) and Werth (.888 lifetime OPS vs. LHP) was a good one, and while Jenkins has looked awful thus far, he’s earned some benefit of the doubt as to his coming around eventually. Werth, meanwhile, offers above-average on-base skills, power, speed and defense; that’s a guy who deserves more playing time than two starts a week against lefties. He isn’t the defender in center that Victorino is—but he’s a better offensive player, and Shane isn’t built for 160 games anyway.
My usage would be that Jenkins always starts in right against right-handers, Werth starts in right against lefties, and mans CF twice a week or so against righties as Shane gets a rest. For any such games in which the Phils lead late, Manuel can shift Werth to left field for Burrell and inserting Victorino in at center—strengthening the defense without imposing quite as big an offensive hit as we see when So Taguchi comes in for Pat.
Third base is a somewhat tougher call. We knew Pedro “Happy Pete” Feliz wasn’t a good hitter, but that he would be a defensive upgrade from the Dobbs/Helms mess of a year ago. Meanwhile, Dobbs has at-bats where he looks totally lost, but also shows signs of developing into a serious offensive asset at the hot corner. (Dobbs turns 30 this July, but never had a sustained chance to play in the majors before 2007; I'm not entirely convinced there isn't more to his game than we've seen.) His platoon split (career .667 OPS vs. LHP, .745 vs. RHP) is significant enough in isolation to justify a job-share, but the defensive difference probably cancels that out. The complicating factor is that right now, the Phillies need offense more than they will once Jimmy Rollins is back healthy and Ryan Howard starts to resemble the 2005-2007 model rather than Mo Vaughn: The Final Days. With that in mind, the way to go is probably a temporary platoon, with Feliz reverting to 80 percent or so of the starts when everyone is healthy and hitting.
That leaves catcher, where Chris Coste has looked like Mike Piazza in his prime and Carlos Ruiz has resembled Rey Ordonez with a parasite. Put to the side Coste’s own protestation that he doesn’t think he should be a starter : it’s interesting but irrelevant, as he’s not primarily paid to be a talent evaluator. More to the point are the questions of whether Coste can come close to sustaining his offensive performance, and if Ruiz can play his way out of the slump. I’m a big fan of both players and I think Coste is probably the best backup catcher in the league, but with 23 games to go off, I’m feeling the answers are still No and Yes respectively. Coste perhaps should start twice a week rather than once—and it was quite odd that he wasn’t in there yesterday afternoon following the night game 18 hours before—but I’m still not ready to anoint him the starter.
Your thoughts?
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pffft...
Nice analysis. No real thoughts except to say I need a keyboard cleanup after spitting diet coke when I read the Rey Ordonez with a parasite comparison. Being stuck at work around people who don’t care about baseball and not being able to share that one is a major bummer.
by heyelander on
Apr 25, 2008 4:38 PM EDT
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Rey Ordonez haunts my nightmares
I try to work him in every couple weeks at least. It’s therapeutic.
Seriously, he was such a terrible hitter, yet there were years when he killed the Phils—who, perhaps from an admirable-in-abstract sense of compassion, would throw him the high fastballs which were the only pitches he could do anything with.
by dajafi on
Apr 25, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
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The complicating factor is that right now, the Phillies need offense more than they will once Jimmy Rollins is back healthy and Ryan Howard starts to resemble the 2005-2007 model rather than Mo Vaughn: The Final Days.
I don’t understand this notion. Dobbs and Feliz can each be viewed as capable of producing some number of runs per game offensively and saving some number of runs per game defensively. Whoever has the higher sum of these two values should be getting the playing time (and I’m not saying that it’s Dobbs). That is, even if the Phillies were on pace to score 1,000 runs, it doesn’t make sense to sit a poor defender if he’s producing more runs then he’s costing you.
That leaves catcher, where Chris Coste has looked like Mike Piazza in his prime and Carlos Ruiz has resembled Rey Ordonez with a parasite.
Coste has put up a .850 OPS in 382 PA over 3 years. Yet he seems to still be regarded as a fluke and incapable of keeping it up. We’ll never know this unless he’s given a shot.
by christonabike on
Apr 25, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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Oh and I totally agree with everything you said re: Werth. He definitely needs to be getting more playing time when Shane is back then once/twice a week in RF against lefties.
by christonabike on
Apr 25, 2008 4:42 PM EDT
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I think in theory you’re correct, but the relative weights of offense and defense might change depending on whether you’ve got Jimmy Rollins or Eric Bruntlett in the lineup.
Situationally there’s a difference as well: with pitchers like Moyer and Kendrick who tend to generate a lot of ground balls to the left side of the infield, it might do better to have Happy Pete’s glove in the game. For Hamels or Eaton, flyball guys, if there’s a righty starting maybe you play Dobbs.
As for Coste/Ruiz, I’m probably the least sure about that one. Ruiz probably isn’t a five-year solution at catcher anyway, with Lou Marson on the way and others coming up as well. If he matches or improves upon his 2007 performance, he’s probably worthwhile, but if he can’t, he isn’t. Coste certainly has earned more playing time; I’m just not sure he’s “won” the job. Remember, we’re still just three and a half weeks into the season.
by dajafi on
Apr 25, 2008 5:00 PM EDT
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Coste/Ruiz
I’m pretty sure Ruiz is the better catcher in the long term—over the course of a full season. But Coste is hot right now and Ruiz is not. Coste should get more starts,perhaps the majority of them until he starts to cool off and Ruiz starts to hit better.
Coste admitted to having some sort of flu this past week which prevented him from starting some games. I think we’ll see much mre of Coste here in the short term at least.
Coste’s numbers in 8 minor league seasons are .286/.335/.421 for a .756 OPS. Last season, he hit .279/.311/.419. He is 35 years old. He is not some great, great player the Phils are refusing to play.
Ruiz hit for a .810, .812 and .894 OPS in his last three minor league campaigns. He has the potential to be a better hitter than Coste I think.
The Phils are in very good shape at the catcher position. They have two guys who are pretty good. Many teams don’t have any. Almost none have two. It’s a good problem to have.
by smitty99 on
Apr 26, 2008 2:21 PM EDT
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I am not sure Ruiz will adapt to major league pitching to the point where he is more valuable than he was last year. It’s not like he’s a kid either anymore.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on
Apr 27, 2008 3:13 AM EDT
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My main gripe concerning Ruiz is his consistant and predictable habit of trying to hit the 3 run homer with no one on. He has warning track power. Once he figures that out he’ll be fine, I hope. I do like his D and arm as well.
As for Coste. Yes he is a feel good story. I admire him for sticking with the minors long after a sane man woulda called it quits. At this point he is the hot hitter and should be in the line up. At least he gives us a chance in the bottom of the order. I pray to God I never see the Mendoza quartet of Jenkins, Happy Pete, Bruntlett, and Ruiz…Jeesh that’s scary eh?
by Steve-O- on
Apr 27, 2008 12:05 PM EDT
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Ruiz looked really good in spring training, and Zolecki printed an interesting stat in late March: I don’t remember it exactly, but paraphrasing it was something like guys who slugged at least 150 points higher in ST than in the previous season in some sizable number of at-bats almost always showed dramatic improvement the next year.
I took this knowledge and drafted Ruiz in several fantasy leagues. In a related item, I’m never playing fantasy baseball again…
by dajafi on
Apr 28, 2008 11:32 AM EDT
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