It always pains in April

by jonk on Apr 7, 2008 12:20 AM EDT

I think I have determined the real issue with the agony of a bad start. The Phillies are 2-4 which isn't good, but, in reality, all teams go through multiple stretches of winning 2 out of 6 games. The Phils will likely do it again, but it won't feel as bad. I think it comes down to expectations. If this were 1990, then we might actually be happy with a 2-4 start. What drives me batty is that they are a good team and you want to jump on that bandwagon at the starting line. While we often over react to early season losses, it doesn't make them less painful.

A loss in April is more painful than a loss in June. While it certainly doesn't mean more to the team, it definitely hurts my fragile psyche more.

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If you're speaking pragmatically, I disagree that a loss in April is more painful than a loss in June; I think they're equal. Both show up as one loss in the standings, no more no less.

If you're speaking emotionally, then I can see how an out-of-the-gates 2-for-6 start is more aggravating than a 2-for-6 stretch in June.

Either way, I'm not too worried.

http://crashburnalley.com/

by Crashburn Alley on Apr 7, 2008 1:00 AM EDT reply actions

My point is emotionally to the fan.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Apr 7, 2008 7:20 AM EDT up reply actions

What worries me

Is that last year it took a great late run by the Phils and a historic collapse by the Mets for us to overcome a poor April and make the playoffs.

So, while it's true that technically a loss in April is the same as one in June... The losses in Aprils past have doomed us to a year of chasing the team(s) that didn't start out so bad.

The fact is that if we're chasing the Mets or Braves come Sept again, chances are about 1 in a million we're going to get the benefit of another historic collapse.

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by JasonB on Apr 7, 2008 1:50 AM EDT reply actions

But if those losses occured in june instead of April, then we'd be in the same predicament. Going 13-12 in April instead of 11-14 means nothing if you go 13-11 in June instead of 15-9 (or however you want to break it down).

I am merely talking about the emotional impact to the fan and basically having the air let our of our balloons when we come in with such high hopes.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Apr 7, 2008 7:23 AM EDT up reply actions

The losses in Aprils past have doomed us to a year of chasing the team(s) that didn't start out so bad.

Yeah, I just can't agree with that. Sure, the Phillies lost more games in April than any other month last season, but just as easily as you can say, "If the Phils had won 2 more in April..." you can say that about any month. If the Phillies had won 18 instead of 16 in August, the Phillies' epic overtaking of the Mets wouldn't have needed to have been so epic.

It's far too early to worry about the Phillies. If you recall, the Phillies started off losing 75% of their first 12 games (that's a 3-9 record). They finished the month nearly at .500 (11-14).

I don't really buy into the "chasing" concept either. The sub-.500 Reds, Cubs, Cardinals, and Astros were all "chasing" the 12-12 Pirates after April 30. Players know who they've got to contend with and don't let the standings play head games with them until the last third of the season or even later.

Just keep a level head, or pop a Valium, this month won't last forever!

http://crashburnalley.com/

by Crashburn Alley on Apr 7, 2008 3:32 AM EDT reply actions

Does history say otherwise?

For how many years were we chasing the Mets or Braves late only to come up short? Like I said, last year were it not been for a historic Mets collapse we'd have been in the same boat.

The common thread all those years seems to be that we've been chasing since game one. So while players may not watch the standings until late in the year, it would be nice to not look up and see a seven-game deficit with 17 games to play. Despite the miracle last year, I'd still always rather be the team with the 7 game lead and better play in April would be a way to do that since it's the month with the largest margin for improvement.

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by JasonB on Apr 7, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions

it would be nice to not look up and see a seven-game deficit with 17 games to play.

I think that you're subconsciously favoring the narrative.

You're right that April has the largest margin for improvement, and that's why I'm not concerned in the least by the Phillies' chronic slow starts. They have been, at least for the last four or five years, a great second-half team. There's just something about July, August, and September (or maybe nothing at all) that makes the Phillies play better: perhaps it's the hot weather combined with the way the wind blows at Citizens Bank Park.

They've shown that they do take that large margin for improvement and utilize it.

I'd actually be a little concerned if the Phillies broke tradition and were mediocre in the second half going into September, especially with that offense.

http://crashburnalley.com/

by Crashburn Alley on Apr 7, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny you mention 1990

I'm going by memory on this (I'll check baseball-reference later), but I'm pretty sure the Phillies actually got off to a shockingly hot start in 1990 and were in first place for about one day sometime around May 1. I remember this because as a kid, I was at the Vet on that one day when Dan Baker introduced the team as "your first-place Philadelphia Phillies." (This was the first of Lenny Dykstra's seasons as an elite, possibly steroid-inflated player, and he hit over .400 throughout the first month of the season.)

So 1990 just goes to show even further that April isn't everything.

by taco pal on Apr 7, 2008 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

I was at that game

I think it was Schmidt's retirement ceremony. They played the Braves, and got crushed. Jeff Treadway had three home runs.

by dajafi on Apr 7, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

that must be it

Because I remember that clearly also. I was in the 500 level in right field and I remember each of the three homers coming our way and then disappearing from view just before they went out. But you could immediately tell they were homers from the groans of the ballpark.

Damn you, Treadway! I'll never be able to erase that memory.

Another thing I recall is that Wilson Goode was one of the dignitaries who came to honor Schmidt and he was booed lustily by the entire ballpark. (Or maybe that was at the Carlton ceremony. I was at both.)

by taco pal on Apr 7, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

definitely Goode

that night. I wasn't at Lefty's night.

Everyone else, including as I remember some fairly controversial people, got at least slight applause. Hapless Wilson, though, got the loudest boo I've ever heard at a sporting event. Which is saying something.

by dajafi on Apr 7, 2008 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions

here's the box score

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI199005260.shtml

The ill-fated Pat Combs started that day and was knocked out in the 3rd. I remember being a big Combs fan at the time and hoarding all of his "Future Stars" baseball cards. Oh well. (Combs ended up having a half-decent rookie year in '90, but then came the arm trouble.)

The ill-fated Pete Smith pitched for Atlanta and went the distance.

by taco pal on Apr 7, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions