What's Moyer worth?

by The Navigator on May 6, 2008 1:53 PM EDT

If you were Ruben Amaro Jr., would (that is, should) you sign a league-average pitcher to a multi-year deal for 2009+? And would it make a difference if that pitcher was currently 45 years old?

Moyer is, so far this year, almost the definition of a league-average pitcher. His ERA is 4.15 in a league with a 4.34 average; his WHIP is 1.59. He's throw at least 199 innings in each of the last seven seasons. Watching him last night, I found myself appreciating how slender and flexible he is - I hope to match that when I'm 45 - and admiring his approach at the plate. Set aside his two hits, although they were pretty tasty; focus on that bunt. How rare is it to see a Phillies pitcher who regularly lays down good bunts?

Anyway, the point is, he looks like he could keep this up for another three or four years. Throwing that 76-MPH slop up there can't be taxing his arm too much. The guy I saw last night looked like a good candidate to be throwing 175+ innings of league-average ball in 2010.

So, how crazy would it be to offer a multi-year deal to a guy who'd be 46 in the first year? That's insane, right - baseball malpractice? I'm just posting this here because I caught myself thinking that it might not be insane, and that we could actually regret <i>not</i> resigning Moyer next year, a la Lohse.

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If he ends the year on a good note, I wouldn’t be opposed to giving him the same 2-year contract that he has right now (with inflation). If he was amenable to signing that contract at age 43, no reason to expect him to demand more years at age 45.

A one-year deal would be better of course, but the risk involved in a two-year deal isn’t horrendous.

by taco pal on May 6, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I think Moyer would go year to year or year with option.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on May 6, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply reply 0 recs

Fantastic question (and I’m front-paging this sucker so more get to see it asked).

I’d go one year, at most one year with a buyout or vesting option. I don’t think it’s discriminatory (and I don’t particularly care if it is) to speculate that when Moyer loses it, it’ll be gone for good. Sucking up a few million in the year it happens, if that year is 2009, is one thing; but I don’t want to burn that same number in a second year for a guy who’s terrible.

Actually, I guess that if he retires, the contract is void, right? So in that case, it becomes like an NFL contract if you believe (as I do) that Moyer would have the decency to hang ‘em up when it becomes clear he’s finished.

by dajafi on May 6, 2008 3:37 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

certainly if you could get him to sign something like Tim Wakefield’s contract...

Tim Wakefield rhp
1 year/$4M (2006), with recurring $4M club options

06:$4M, 07:$4M club option, 08:$4M club option (added 10/06)
club exercised $4M option for 2008 11/2/07
club exercised $4M option for 2007 10/06
additional 1-year, $4M club option is added each time club exercises 1 option, continuing until the club declines an option
annual performance bonuses:
o $50,000/GS for starts 11-20
o $75,000/GS for starts 21 and beyond

...I think you’d have to do it.

by perfectdepth on May 6, 2008 4:18 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

I was just about to mention Wakefield’s contract. Damn. I’m not sure if the Player’s Union or Moyer himself would be up for it, though. The Wakefield contract has gotten a fair amount of publicity for how club-friendly it is, and Moyer’s family and kids are all back in Seattle, meaning that it might not be a situation where he’d want to be perpetually tied to the Phillies (he might want to leave the door open to returning to the Mariners, or going to the West Coast, assuming he wants to keep pitching).

It’s awfully fun to watch him when he’s “on” like last night, but he was pretty awful for much of 2007. He was shelled throughout the second half of the season, and this year’s nice ERA conceals the fact that hitters are hitting .319/.362/.509 against him—he’s getting by because he has pitched a lot better with men on base than with bases empty, and his ground ball rate is up. Neither of those things are gonna last, I bet.

I guess it’s nice having a pitcher in the back end of the rotation who can guarantee you innings rather than a series of guys who are constantly threats to meltdown, but he’s not the same caliber pitcher as Wakefield, so you’d be locking up a #5/6 type starter perpetually, not a solid #4.

by bugbear on May 6, 2008 4:31 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Let’s remember that Moyer’s ERA after the All Star last year approached 6 and that his 2007 pre All Star numbers were the result of a low BABIP. A WHIP around 1.6 is not going to keep his ERA around league average.

by bshelly on May 6, 2008 7:15 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs

Player-pitching coach? Has that ever happened before?

"You can't worry if it's cold; you can't worry if it's hot; you only worry if you get sick. Because then if you don't get well, you die." -Joaquin Andujar

by Wet Luzinski on May 6, 2008 9:32 PM EDT reply reply 0 recs