Phillies Rotation Leading to All-Star Break

by phillyinportland on Jun 12, 2008 7:38 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

After seeing the fortunes of Cole Hamels and Brett Myers the last two nights, I took a look at the schedule from now until the All-Star break. If the Phillies stay on schedule with no rainouts or postponements, they will play 96 games before the break; and if they stay with their current five-man rotation that has held up all season, we will end up with the extra game for the first half being pitched by Brett Myers, not Cole Hamels.

However, there are three scheduled off days between now and July 1st, giving an excellent opportunity for Charlie Manuel to make a switch from Myers to Hamels as the number one guy in the rotation without having to pitch Hamels on anything shorter than his usual every fifth day. I doubt that an extra day of rest will mess up Myers - and Hamels should be the top of the rotation guy, in my opinion. It just seems strange this season to keep going through the intact rotation and coming back to the top and seeing Myers there. As far as I can see, the only changes Manuel has made to the rotation this season were the two flip-flops with Eaton and Kendrick - once when Kendrick got shelled by the Mets and Manuel wanted to get Eaton lined up for the next Mets series, and then after Kendrick had the short outing because of the rain, against Toronto. Manuel probably thinks that as long as the rotation is working, why change it.

Well, what would the Phillies get by flipping Hamels and Myers on Saturday June 21st (after a day off at home between the Red Sox and Angels series) - or after the off days on June 23rd or June 30th (which one of the three doesn't affect Hamels' and Myers' slots at all)?

Without going through all the matchups, the end result is that moving Hamels ahead means he pitches against the Braves and Diamondbacks and misses the Mets series (the one drawback to the switch). Myers would basically get Hamels' start against the Mets and would miss the Braves and Diamondbacks. What's more, if they don't move Hamels ahead of Myers, at this point he would pitch a Wednesday game against the Cardinals and then sit until after the All Star game, and he'd be a prime candidate for multiple inning use in the All Star game if he's selected and hasn't pitched in nearly a week. I hope Charlie Manuel can see the benefit of making this switch.

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I sort of find myself hoping Hamels gets left off the all-star team. For one thing, I want him resting those days, and for another I want him good and pissed with something to prove for the stretch run—”Okay, that jerkass Hurdle left me off the all-star team, so I’ll just have to win the goddamn Cy Young Award.”

by dajafi on Jun 13, 2008 12:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I often
wonder how many bumps and bruises these guys get? Baseball is a constant grind mentally and physically and the ASB is probably a nice break to heal and take care of family matters, especially those players with young ones at home. But these guys, for the most part, are driven by ego. It would be an honor to play with the best of the best (or maybe the most popular). Knowing Coles makeup I thnk he’s gonna be pissed if Hurdle passes him by but physically it could turn out to be a plus.

by Steve-O- on Jun 13, 2008 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If there’s one department Hamels isn’t lacking in, it’s ego.

by taco pal on Jun 13, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True…

Bleeding Green Nation - Philadelphia Eagles Blog

by JasonB on Jun 13, 2008 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent idea

It certaintly makes sense to have your ace get as many starts as possible. If Myers was pitching like a number 2 I’d probably leave well enough alone. The problem is he is not pitching like a serviceable #5, therefore I could care less if Charlie hurt his ego.

One thing about Charlie is he is as loyal to his players, well maybe to a fault. Look how long it took for him to give Coste more playing time. Look how long he has left Howard in the clean up spot.

So in the end I like your idea of switching Hamels/Myers but it won’t happen. Now with Bowa…......lol.

by Steve-O- on Jun 13, 2008 12:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Something

Something needs to be done. I like this idea, but I doubt it’ll happen.

Date IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT ERA Dec
4/2/2007 7.2 4 3 3 2 2 9 5 10 106 3.75 -
4/7/2007 4.1 8 6 6 1 2 6 2 9 89 7.17 L
4/13/2007 3.1 3 7 7 2 5 4 2 4 88 10.00 L
3/31/2008 5 5 4 3 0 2 2 5 8 86 8.81 -
4/6/2008 5 8 4 4 2 3 4 6 6 95 8.48 L
4/11/2008 8 5 3 3 3 0 5 15 9 115 7.22 W
4/17/2008 7 5 1 1 1 1 8 9 6 112 6.17 W
4/22/2008 7 11 6 6 2 2 3 10 14 111 6.17 -
4/27/2008 5 8 4 4 2 1 5 10 3 80 6.48 L
5/3/2008 7 6 2 2 1 3 10 7 6 121 6.01 -
5/8/2008 5 9 7 6 1 3 5 7 8 101 6.39 L
5/14/2008 4.1 9 8 6 3 3 6 6 4 75 6.80 L
5/19/2008 6 8 3 3 0 3 2 13 5 108 6.61 L
5/24/2008 6 8 4 4 0 4 2 10 5 112 6.57 L
5/30/2008 8 6 3 3 0 3 11 5 12 117 6.27 W
6/4/2008 7.1 1 1 1 0 6 8 3 9 115 5.90 L
6/10/2008 5.1 7 5 5 3 4 5 – - 99 6.05 L
Totals 102.1 111 71 67 23 47 95 – - 1730 6.05 (3-10)

Sorry I can’t get this to paste correctly in chart form. If you want to take a better look you can probably paste it into Excel. The point is, this is Myers’ last 17 starts. He’s barely averaged 6 innings pitched, given up around 4 earned runs, and pretty much given up a HR every 5 innings or so. His ERA over these 17 starts…. 6.05 with a record of (3-10). Let’s be honest with ourselves here. If this was Kendrick’s last 17 starts, he’d be boasting a metallic swine uniform right about now. He is clearly not the same pitcher from the 2006 season where he pitched like a #1 or #2 guy. Honestly, say Benson comes up after the ASB and shows that he should be in the rotation, who moves to the pen? Let’s take a look see..

Hamels – (6-4), 99 IP, 3.27 ERA, 86 SO, 1.02 WIP, 2CG… also hitting .314… Nope he stays
Moyer – (7-3), 83 IP, 4.12 ERA, 43 SO, 1.37 WIP… Keep ‘em
Kendrick – (5-2), 68.1 IP, 4.87 ERA, 30 SO, 1.49 WIP… Not too shabby
Eaton – (2-3), 74 IP, 4.62 ERA, 40 SO, 1.38 WIP, leads the team in quality starts, and is atleast giving us a chance every game he starts
Myers – (3-8), 86 IP, 5.34 ERA, 76 SO, 1.56 WIP…. DING, DING, DING!!! Brett Myers, come on down! You’re our new long man/ slop up guy!!!! Be sure to pick up your complimentary toaster oven on the way to the Pen!

by foos05 on Jun 13, 2008 9:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Doest most of the evidence point to benson providing absoultely nothing this year? I’d rather see someone from the AA roster who is pitching well brought up.

by jemagee on Jun 13, 2008 2:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The probability that one of our prospects will come up to the big leagues and succeed right away is no higher, and almost certainly lower, than the probability that Myers will right the ship and regain some of his form going forward.

by taco pal on Jun 13, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Home Boy

Myers ERA at home: 3.66.

On the road: 7.32.

That’s kinda weird.

by smitty99 on Jun 13, 2008 4:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No way they’re going to shift the rotation for this. Hamels got snippy last time he pitched on short rest, so if a change means he misses a day of rest, I doubt it’ll happen.

I still feel Myers can turn it around. Even if he can’t, I don’t know what your better option is. After what Kendrick has pulled, it’s easy to think you can call up any guy from AA and he’ll pitch respectably, but that just isn’t the case. The team’s gotten especially lucky from Kendrick’s performance.

Short of trading for a pitcher, I think Myers is where you have to go. Chad Durbin is the starter in the waiting, but I don’t wanna screw with the bullpen all that much at this point.
(short of putting Tom Gordon on a heluva short leash, as in first batter he lets reach, he’s pulled). You still have JD Durbin in AAA, he’s got experience and can pitch respectively enough once in a while. I’d still prefer Myers over him tho.

by Bilzo on Jun 13, 2008 4:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Phillies Rotation

That was an interesting observation, Bilzo, on Hamels’ reaction earlier – I hadn’t heard anything about that – so maybe that would be an important factor. But as many others have pointed out, Myers isn’t pitching like even a number two starter, Hamels is the ace, and I’d think many clubs would jump at the chance to showcase Hamels that way while also getting a better chance at winning. Anyone know offhand what Hamels and Myers have done vs. the Diamondbacks?

by phillyinportland on Jun 13, 2008 7:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

PHILLIES ROTATION

It took me a while, but to answer my own question from last week, the records of Hamels and Myers vs. the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks are a perfect illustration of why switching Myers and Hamels makes sense, even though it probably won’t happen unless Myers gets injured. (I’m proposing a switch that would add Hamels for the Braves and Diamondbacks series, missing the Mets, and vice versa for Myers.)
Here are what I came up with lifetime and this season for the two:
Myers vs. Braves: 4-7. Lost once this year, got shelled.
Myers vs. Mets: 8-6. Didn’t face them this year.
Myers vs. Diamondbacks: 2-2. Lost once this year, got shelled.

Hamels vs. Braves: 4-2. Shut them out in his one game this year.
Hamels vs. Mets: 1-2. Lost to Santana in his one game this year.
Hamels vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0. Hasn’t faced them since 2006, I believe.
And, to support smitty99’s obvservation, the net loss would be losing a road start by Myers – that sounds good to me.

by phillyinportland on Jun 19, 2008 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs