Moyer, Kendrick, & Eaton: cherry-picking some stats

by PhillyFriar on Jun 20, 2008 1:08 PM EDT

Haven't posted much here but I've read for awhile. It's a great site.

Anyway, I remain convinced that this Phillies team is one front end starter away from being legitimate World Series contenders. The offense is fine, the bullpen is fine, but I have this nagging feeling that the rotation isn't necessarily playoff-caliber. Moyer, Kendrick, and Eaton can get by in the regular season by locating their okay stuff, trying to put together a quality start, and letting the offense win the game. In the playoffs, against lineups both patient and powerful, I don't think that's going to fly.

As I said in the title, it's certainly cherry-picking stats, but I took a look at the rotation's back three against the three teams we've played that are very likely to be playoff-bound: the Cubs, the D'Backs, and the Red Sox.

Moyer: 1-1, 4.23 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 19 H, 6 BB, 11 K in 17.0 IP (vs. Cubs, D’Backs, Red Sox)
Kendrick: 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, 16 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 9.0 IP (vs. D’Backs, Red Sox)
Eaton: 0-1, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 5 H, 3 BB, 1 K in 4.0 IP (vs. D’Backs)

We're 2-4 in those games overall, but 3-1 against the same teams when either Hamels or Myers pitches (and Myers hasn't even gotten on track yet). Even considering the small sample size, that doesn't bode well for October should we make it there.

I did a post over at my blog (Them's Good Eaton) expanding on my reasoning here, but this is the basic point. I don't know what pitchers are necessarily going to be available yet, but we'll have a better idea next month. I don't suggest mortgaging the future for a rental, but if there's a deal that makes sense, then Gillick should pull the trigger.

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Moyer’s stats don’t look too bad, for whatever it’s worth.

On a somewhat related note, Jim Salisbury had what I thought was a pretty reasonable column today. Link. If Myers turns it around, a trade becomes much less appealing. It’s one thing to give up on prospects to upgrade from a seven-game series rotation of

Hamels / Moyer / CrappyMyers / Kendrick-Eaton / Hamels / Moyer / CrappyMyers

to a rotation of

Hamels / Sabathia-Bedard / Moyer / CrappyMyers / Hamels / Sabathia-Bedard / Moyer

The same price becomes less worth paying it if you’re upgrading from

Hamels / GoodMyers / Moyer / Kendrick-Eaton / Hamels / GoodMyers / Moyer

Hamels / Sabathia-Bedard / GoodMyers / Moyer / Hamels / Sabathia-Bedard / GoodMyers

Still an upgrade, but the difference is considerably smaller.

I’m actually not worried about Myers long-term but I am worried that he might not be able to turn it around in time to help this year. There is a precedent for this. Myers was pretty awful for all 2004. He was decent both immediately before and immediately after.

He’s not the only good starting pitcher who’s ever gone through a yearlong slump. It happens all the time. See, for example, Derek Lowe 2004.

by taco pal on Jun 20, 2008 7:17 PM EDT reply actions

Excellent point about the weakness of the bottom three in the rotation vs. top-quality opponents, although I see Moyers as more or less consistent in his outings, while having certain teams he does better or worse against (Marlins and Red Sox come to mind). I guess we’ll have to add Eaton’s performance tonight against the Angels to the list of poor results against teams that are likely playoff-bound. What I wonder about is the thinking of Charlie Manuel that would leave Eaton in to bat in the bottom of the fifth, trailing 3-0 with over a hundred pitches thrown. Was he determined to see if Eaton could get that magical “quality start” by getting three quick outs with Anderson and Guerrero coming up (4 for 5 with a HBP in three previous trips)! Why not just bring out Madson and give Eaton the rest of the night off? The pitching staff has done so much better than expected that it’s a surprise when something like this happens when it could have been easily avoided.

by phillyinportland on Jun 20, 2008 9:16 PM EDT reply actions