How to Lose a Winnable Game

by dajafi on Jun 23, 2008 1:29 PM EDT

If you're in a blaming mood, Sunday's 3-2 loss to the Angels offers a target-rich environment. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard failed to deliver in the first inning after Jimmy Rollins and Greg Dobbs reached base to start the game. So Taguchi ended the game with a horrible, horrible at-bat just as it seemed LAA closer Francisco Rodriguez was coming apart. Pat Burrell was 0 for 4, and the whole lineup other than Jimmy Rollins and Howard, who had two each, managed a grand total of two hits.

But to me it was Geoff Jenkins' at-bat in the second inning of yesterday's game that perfectly captured why the Phillies fell to their fifth straight defeat. I'm not saying it was the most important moment in the contest, nor am I denying a certain animus toward Jenkins' game anyway that renders me something less than totally objective. But this was dumb baseball at a moment when the team could least afford it.

The situation was this: Angels starter Jered Weaver escaped trouble in the first inning, but had thrown 28 pitches. LAA scored their three runs in the top of the second, with the inning ending when Weaver--making a rare appearance at the plate--narrowly failed to beat out an infield grounder. He seemed a bit fatigued in the bottom of the inning against Shane Victorino, batting sixth in Charlie Manuel's reconfigured lineup, and walked Victorino on five pitches.

This was Weaver's second walk of the game against six hitters. The Phillies had stolen three bases in their half of the first inning, and Victorino had been moved to the six-hole in large part to inject some speed, some capacity to manufacture runs, toward the bottom of the order. Mike Napoli probably wasn't going to throw him out; Weaver wasn't even throwing over. The opportunity was there to get him in scoring position with nobody out and put further pressure on a pitcher who seemed tired.

Victorino took off on the first pitch... and Geoff Jenkins skied it to left field for an easy out, sending Victorino back to first. Two pitches later, Carlos Ruiz did the same thing. Cole Hamels managed to see seven pitches--fouling off four straight, with Victorino running on each of them--but ultimately grounded out, stranding the team's fastest runner where he started the inning, at first. It wasn't quite the ballgame, but it did preview the frustration the rest of the afternoon would bring.

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Finally starting to reemerge from my weeklong depression here… All of those games were pretty horrible, not just Sunday.

The clamor in the papers and the airwaves for more starting pitching is starting to get deafening. I wouldn’t be against that necessarily, but the ironic thing about the last two crappy weeks is that the pitching actually did pretty well. Against some good lineups, they put up roughly the same above-average ERA they’ve had the whole year (3.99 for the last two weeks, 3.86 on the year, which is 3rd-best in the league). We just couldn’t score any runs.

Maybe we should really be on the lookout for more hitting. It would certainly come cheaper, I would think. You can never have too much hitting, as the saying goes.

by taco pal on Jun 24, 2008 11:43 AM EDT 0 recs

Another irony is that they seem to have much more credible in-house options on pitching (Happ, Carrasco, Benson maybe) than with position players. But I guess the question is who you’d replace.

Obviously I’m no fan of Jenkins. Problem is that the one guy who’d make sense in his role, Snelling, is hurt again (possible torn ACL) and basically needs to be kept in bubble wrap at all times when he isn’t at the plate or in the field. Maybe then too. Ruiz and Feliz have been mediocre at best, but Coste and Dobbs are already with the team and I just don’t see the Phils throwing Lou Marson into a pennant race at age 21-22.

They’re going to have to come out of the hitting slump with the guys they have, basically.

by dajafi on Jun 24, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Anyone besides me hear some rumors about the Phils quitely shopping Myers as a closer??? And talking to the Rocks about Fuentes? I wouldn’t mind them getting Fuentes… he’s another tough guy on lefties. I think between he and Romero, we pretty much lock up lefties in the late innings.

by foos05 on Jun 24, 2008 12:20 PM EDT 0 recs

I read somewhere about a Fuentes deal that might send Fabio Castro to Colorado. Sign me up…

Also, the Rockies evidently are shopping Garrett Atkins. I’d love to see the Phils somehow bring him aboard. Another power righty bat would be useful. Feliz would be an expensive bench player, but not absurdly so.

by dajafi on Jun 24, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree about Atkins. It wouldn’t be such a bad thing to have Happy on the bench… I’d rather have his bat on the bench than Taguchi. I think we have enough OF depth without him… The Bat, Vic, Werth, Jenkins, Dobbs and Burntlet can both play out there as well. I will say, even with how Bruntlet started out, I’m glad we picked him up. He can play all over the place and has decent speed as well.

What kinda deal do you think they’d have to put together to get Fuentes and Atkins in one shot? Castro +2 others probably… Also… speculation as to why are they shopping him?

by foos05 on Jun 24, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up 0 recs

Atkins isn’t a very good 3Bman and his home/road splits are a concern. Feliz is a great glove and he will give you some home runs and doubles. His OBP right now is a career high .313. What’s most troubling to me about him though is that he hits mistake fast balls but breaking stuff and pitches out of the strike zone (that he swings at with alarming frequency) result in swings and misses (bad) and grounders to SS (worse). He hits into tons of DPs and runs like he’s wearing cement loafers.

So Feliz isn’t all that great. But his glove and his occasional power has value. I think they need to address other problems really. Feliz isn’t hurting the team overall. If Utley, Rollins, Burrell, Howard and Jenkins start to hit they’ll score tons of runs. Pretty much all of those guys are second half hitters. I even have hope for a small resurgence from Ruiz (who really is good defensively I believe).

I look for their pitching effectivness to drop as we hit the dog days and for the hitting to pick up. Their runs scored totals have been boosted by some great hitting with RISP; with runners on base; and by some incredible pinch hitting (by everyone except Taguchi). As those things normalize, we should see the overall hitting by the main cogs improve and the runs scored begin to come back to a high level. The key to me is how much the pitching effectivness degrades and what Gillick and company will do about it.

by smitty99 on Jun 24, 2008 2:19 PM EDT 0 recs

Career, Atkins is not quite an .800 OPS guy away from Coors, which is pretty decent. At OFJOAB, he’d still be advantaged by his home yard. The question is his price tag going forward and how he projects in his early 30s. (He’s a few weeks younger than Ryan Howard.)

Otherwise, I agree. What bugs me about this current slump is that I figured when they hit a skid, it would be because of the pitching coming back to original expectations. Since I still expect that at some point, this one feels sort of arbitrary.

by dajafi on Jun 24, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

Regarding Atkins

Well .769 is pretty far away from .800. And his home OPS is .927. His walk and power numbers are similar home and away. But he has a giant 68 point advantage in batting average (.337 to .269) at Coors.

I’m not sure what that means though. He’s certainly better than Feliz with the bat.

by smitty99 on Jun 24, 2008 3:15 PM EDT 0 recs

Thought it was closer than that (.792?). Maybe I looked at the wrong set of numbers… oh, I know what I did: 2005-2007 cumulative splits on espn.com.

Anyway, I suspect his production in Philly would be fine. Defensively he would be a downgrade from Feliz, though.

by dajafi on Jun 24, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up 0 recs