The Good Phight: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Backing the Pack for NC State Fans!


Tough Road to ASB

I will have to preface this by saying I'm overjoyed that the Phils have spent more time in 1st place this year than they have pretty much in the past decade combined.  That being said, we could have a tough road between now an the All Star Break.  If we take a look at our schedule to this point and take into account the winning % of our opponents, we can get a weighted opponent's winning %, which is different than the overall opponent's winning % (out of 60 games, the more that are against worse teams, the easier the schedule), which gives us a kind of strenght of schedule to this point:

Team Games Wins Losses % % Weighted by Games
Wash 6 24 35 0.407 2.441
NYM 6 29 28 0.509 3.053
Cin 6 28 31 0.475 2.847
Ari 4 32 27 0.542 2.169
Atl 3 31 28 0.525 1.576
Fla 3 31 26 0.544 1.632
Mil 2 31 28 0.525 1.051
SF 6 25 34 0.424 2.542
ChC 3 38 21 0.644 1.932
Hou 7 31 28 0.525 3.678
Pit 3 27 31 0.466 1.397
Col 5 21 38 0.356 1.780
SD 3 23 37 0.383 1.150
Tor 3 32 28 0.533 1.600
Total 60 403 420 0.490 28.848
Opp. Weighted %  0.481

 

So, over our first 60 games (where we went 35 and 25), not only does our opposition have an overall record of .490, but they weighted % by the number of times we played them is slightly lower at .481, meaning we played the worst teams more often.  So against a weighted schedule of .481, we were able to win about 58% of the time.

Now if we take a look at the remainder of the schedule between tonight's game against Cincy and the ASB, it's a little more difficult.

Team Games Wins Losses % % Weighted by Games
Atl 6 31 28 0.525 3.153
StL 6 35 25 0.583 3.500
Bos 3 36 25 0.590 1.770
Fla 3 31 26 0.544 1.632
NYM 4 29 28 0.509 2.035
Tex 3 30 30 0.500 1.500
Ari 3 32 27 0.542 1.627
LAA 3 36 24 0.600 1.800
Oak 3 32 27 0.542 1.627
Cin 2 28 31 0.475 0.949
Total 36 320 271 0.541 19.593
Opp. Weighted % Until ASB 0.544

So, if we take a look at the ramaining 36 games, our opponent's winning % has moved to .541 (a .051 increase), and a weighted % of .544 (a .063 increase).  Notice over these 36 games, the weighted % is higher than just the total % (and we are playing the better teams more often so this makes sense). 

It's a give that there are many other things that come into play (ie. injuries to key players like David Ortiz), but I'm just pointing out that the remainder of our schedule until the ASB will probably be much more difficult.

0 recs | Comment 3 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Just tread water…

by Neduol Caz on Jun 4, 2008 11:05 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not sure if it affects anyones thinking, but there are 6 games against the braves who just announced that smoltz is done for the season

by jemagee on Jun 4, 2008 11:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I hadn’t heard that. Wow.

Mixed feelings. Personally, I think Smoltz is a true a-hole, but he was an incredible competitor and, unlike the similarly dickish Roger Clemens, I think he played the game with honor and pride.

by dajafi on Jun 4, 2008 12:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Analysis and features focusing on Philadelphia Phillies baseball.
Start posting about the Phillies »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Phillies_2008_cropped_jpeg_small
Phillies-Braves Series Sweep: Hmm, That Went Well
Wholecamels_small
Random Thoughts
Boys_small
Platoon Pitchers?
Boys_small
Obscure Phillies
Boys_small
Can't stop being Werthy...
Img
Bastardo Out For Next Start
Small
Phillies starters need to follow Happ's lead
Phillies_2008_cropped_jpeg_small
And You Thought Steroids Were No Laughing Matter
Phillies_2008_cropped_jpeg_small
Phillies Home Debacle: 'Til Death Do Us Part?
Djack_small
clay condrey to the dl

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini

SPONSORS


Blog Lords

Wholecamels_small WholeCamels

Boys_small jonk

Dsc04697_small David S. Cohen

Meltingface_small dajafi

Colevatar_small MattS

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports