June 5: Bailey vs. Hamels
by dajafi on Jun 5, 2008 12:31 PM EDT
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PrintCincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies, Jun 5, 2008 1:05 PM EDT
After being shut out last night by Reds phenom Edison Volquez, the Phillies this afternoon face Homer Bailey, who a year ago at this time was regarded the way Volquez is now. Bailey was regarded among the top prospects in the game in early 2007, but spent the season bouncing between the majors and triple-A. Today will mark his big-league debut for 2008. With the Reds, he went 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in nine starts. This year in the minors, he went 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA.
Cole Hamels takes the hill for the Phillies, coming off two of the worst starts in his own brief major league career. Hamels went just four innings with a no-decision in the Phils' 15-6 win at Houston on May 25, and took the loss after allowing eight hits and seven runs in 5 2/3 innings last Saturday against Florida. His career numbers against the Reds are quite good: 2-0, 0.86 in three starts. Hamels set his career high in strikeouts at Cincinnati on April 21, 2007, fanning 15 in a 4-1 Phillies win.
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According to a different Phillies blog
Tim Malcolm Says:
June 5th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Rollins: Supposedly he’s "under the weather." He’s sitting on the bench. No worries methinks.
87 pitches through 7 innings for Cole. I think 8 innings should be it…no matter what. Shutouts are nice and all, but I don’t like the idea of trading 130 pitch shutouts for two outings in which he gives up 7 ER each.
Rotoworld on J-Roll
“Jimmy Rollins left Thursday’s game after five innings and the Philadelphia Inquirer speculates that he may have been benched for not running out a fly ball.”
Well that’s how internet rumors get started i guess, the comments on that post are kind of sad
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Do not send Hamels out for the 9th, PLEASE….you got arms you haven’t used for a while and a 5 run lead, get someone an inning
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 3:07 PM EDT reply actions
OT
How’s Jason Schmidt doing these days with the Dodgers? Say didn’t Baker let him lead the league in CG with the Giants for a few years. Oh and how’s Prior with the Cubs? Another Baker boy.
I almost want hamels to give up a home run so they pull him
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions
What’s the principle? Todays pitchers are fragiile dolls?
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
What I mean is that if they pulled hamels after 104 pitches in the 6th it would be an alright outing, the ‘magic 100’ – so why does it matter if the 104 took 9 instead of 6 to get too? It means he pitched efficiently doesn’t it? less than 12 pitches per inning isn’t exactly a bad thing…
I was more concerned about the low K rate for Cole for this game actually
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel you. I just think he was awfully close to 100 before he went back out for the 9th. Sure, he had been efficient up to that point, but I don’t see the harm in just sitting him down and letting Condrey get the last 3.
Wellthere’s the assumption that Condrey would get the last 3, when i originally put the ‘anyone’ post i was going to write madson or condrey, but not sure i’d be comfy with either of them with just a 5 run lead, but there are guys who haven’t pitched in a while i think, like seanez? Or durbin? because of the closeness of these games.
All in all you have to be glad the phils took 3 out of 4 and take some very nice pitching mojo out of this series….on to atlanta to where they can now crush the braves dreams
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
The principle is that you shouldn’t make your young stud pitcher throw more pitches than reasonably necessary, even in situations where his total would be acceptable in the general case.
104 pitches isn’t an unreasonable amount…and not sure when and why the 100 level became some sort of magic number…you can’t coddle them and you can over use them, i see neither being used today, 104 pitches is fine, i’m sure he would have had a quick hook if it didn’t take less than 10 pitches or so to get out of the 9th…charlie manuel makes lots of questionable decisions, i don’t believe that 104 pitches for cole hamels is one of them
by jemagee on Jun 5, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
WHat you said
The principle is that you shouldn’t make your young stud pitcher throw more pitches than reasonably necessary, even in situations where his total would be acceptable in the general case.Now, the phillies only have one stud pitcher, and he was pitching yesterday and with in the realm of this threaded discussion it was posited that hamels was in the game too long even though he only threw slightly over 100 pitches yesterday.
I interpreted within that context that you felt the phils were violating the principle you stated as you didn’t make it clear which direction you were leaning in regards to hamels pitching performance…my apologies if you don’t feel hamel pitched ‘too much’ yesterday
by jemagee on Jun 6, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me spell it out for you.
In my comment of 12:39 p.m. yesterday, I used the word “reasonably” (an adverb), not “reasonable” (an adjective).
Adjectives modify nouns. If I had used the word the word “reasonable,” that adjective could have referred to Hamels’ pitch count, which is a noun.
Adverbs, in contrast, modify verbs or adjectives. In this case, the adverb “reasonably” modified the adjective “necessary” which directly followed it.
From this, it should be possible to ascertain that:
(1) Although I believed Hamels’ pitch count to be reasonable in an absolute sense (as shown by the last clause of my post, which read, “even in situations where his total would be acceptable in the general case”),
(2) I did not believe that his pitch count was “reasonably necessary“
There is no magic number of pitches that divides too much from too little. Instead, you have to do a dynamic cost-benefit analysis at all times. Pitches 95-105 may come with a low level of risk. However, if you are winning 5-0 in the ninth, then Pitches 95-105 also come with very little benefit. The principle is that when the risks outweighs the benefits, you should take your pitcher out. This applies not only when the risks are high and the benefits are low, but also when the risks are low but the benefits are even lower.
Obviously, the latter situation is a much less serious violation of that principle, but the principle remains what it is.
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