Ryan Howard, Re-Reconsidered

by dajafi on Jul 10, 2008 4:34 PM EDT

The Phillies slugger has gotten a lot of attention lately for the, let's say extremism, of his offensive results. Sportscenter noted last night that since last year's all-star break, a stretch of 165 games, Howard leads all big-leaguers with 51 home runs, 149 RBI, and 227 strikeouts. After today's big game--yet another against his hometown Cardinals--those numbers stand at 166 games, 53 jacks, 152 RBI, and 228 strikeouts. The strikeout came in his last at-bat of the afternoon, giving him 125 for this season to go with 27 homers and 83 RBI--all league highs, of course, and the last a Phils pre-all star break record with three games to play. It ended a string of 12 plate appearances without a whiff, which tied his previous high for this season (May 26-28). He's currently enjoying a 13-game hit streak, over which time he's hitting .351 (18-51) with 8 homers and 18 RBI.

Jason Weitzel at Beerleaguer offered a great take on Howard earlier today:

Here’s what we know about Howard, in this his fourth season as a regular contributor. He can’t field and he’ll start slowly. During this time, other players will need to carry the offense, and Beerleaguer will entertain a flood of posts on why he should be traded. He’ll become more productive as the season wears on. Eventually, he’ll get the point where he can carry them, like last night, for example. For the sake of comparison, measure him only against himself. He's a different animal.

I think this is substantially correct--but it's in the nature of baseball fans to draw comparisons, and "measuring him against himself" doesn't really work because the track record isn't yet long enough. Howard might be the most intensely frustrating hitter I've followed in 30 years of fandom; his lethargic three-pitch strikeout against Pedro Feliciano after the rain delay Sunday and the first-inning GIDP last night, on which it looked like he hardly even bothered to run, are but two examples. His defense is probably described as "Stink, With Episodes of Shocking Competence." But he's also got four multi-homer games this season, and he recently got to 150 career bombs in fewer games than anyone in baseball history (495; runner-up is Eddie Matthews, in 569 games).

What's confounding for the Phillies is what to do with Howard going forward. As we've discussed endlessly on this site and elsewhere, he's not a particularly young player and not very likely to age well, given his body type. He's probably going to make something like $13-14 million next year, going up from there. With the possible exception of strike zone judgment, all his negatives are likely to get worse going forward. But how do you deal away the greatest power hitter of his generation?

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I think Howard’s ultimate fate is inextricably tied to the “window,” if you will, that the current nucleus has. With Utley, Rollins, Howard, Burrell et al. in their primes, Howard stays for the foreseeable future.

If I’m the Phils, I consider dealing him either after next year, or more likely, after the 2010 season. At 30 or 31, he’ll be on the way to a slow decline (while he gets probably $17 million in arbitration), and you see what you can get for him from an AL team at that point. Then I’d move Burrell to 1B (though that’s of course contingent on re-signing him this offseason).

In the meantime, though, you just ride the roller coaster. I think the way you’ve described him - “the most intensely frustrating hitter I’ve followed” - encapsulates all of our feelings, but we’ll take the bad with good and hope he’ll help bring us a title.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 10, 2008 7:47 PM EDT 0 recs

Personally, I think the organization should concentrate less on taking advantage of the window, and more on ensuring that the window stays open. Who’s to say we can’t develop or acquire another Rollins, Utley, or Howard? Maybe we don’t have that kind of talent in the system now, but then, I would told you the same thing five years ago.

In my view, it is the unalterable tendency of sports fans to always believe, no matter what, that now is the time, that the future is hopeless, that moves need to be made immediately, and so forth. Even as early as 2003, 2004, you could find plenty of Phillies fans saying the team needed to make their move NOW, dump their prospects NOW, etc. I’m not saying that feeling is never correct, but the intelligent fan should always try to compensate for human nature by presuming in the first instance that it isn’t.

I think back to the early ‘80s – if there was ever a time when it made sense to believe that the Phillies had only a small “window” left, that was it. By then, they’d already been a playoff-caliber team for six or seven seasons and Schmidt and Carlton were both well over 30. But in retrospect, if they had done nothing at all then the team that they would have fielded for years to come (Ryne Sandberg, Julio Franco, Mark Davis, etc.) would have remained pretty good. Instead we ended up with a decade of crap.

But this is all off topic.

by taco pal on Jul 11, 2008 10:25 AM EDT up 0 recs

I’ll admit that three or so years ago, I figured that a new Dark Age of Phillies Baseball would begin around 2007. Though this probably had more to do with Wade’s annual unsuccessful attempts to make “win now” moves, forfeiting draft picks to get the likes of David Bell, than anything else.

I agree that the point is to keep the window open. Our system is on the upswing, and our two best players-Utley and Hamels-should still be good when whoever from the Dom Brown/Kyle Drabek/Travis Mattair cohort of prospects shows up. Maybe even when the Tools Team (all the guys we drafted this year) arrives in Philly.

Which is not to say that they shouldn’t do anything at all. And Howard, I suspect, won’t still be effective in 2013 or so when those guys start showing up in force.

by dajafi on Jul 11, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

To me, the Phillies best course of action is a two pronged move. The first is to negotiate a deal with Mark Teixeria. He grew up in Baltimore, I think staying “close to home” might have some value to him, but with Boras as his agent, its ultimately going to come down to money. Not every Boras client jumps to the place where he’ll collect every last penny, but most do. Boras is reportedly floating $23M out there, we know that won’t happen. The Yankees will bid heavily for him, and thats tough to compete with, but they are also going to empty the bank for Sabathia. I think 7 years, 120 million gets you close. Tex is a gold glove caliber defender, he’s more athletic than Howard, and he’s a switch hitter. He doesn’t have as much raw power, but no one in baseball does. But he does have better plate discipline than Howard. He’s drawn 47 unintentional walks this year in 394 PA’s, for a rate of 11.9%. For his career, his uBB% is 9.5%, so he’s actually gotten a bit better this year. Howard has drawn 38 uBB this year in 399 PA, a rate of 9.5%, with a career uBB rate of 9.7%. Howard turns 29 in November, Tex turns 29 in April of 2009.

Signing him, as a Type A free agent, will cost us our first round pick. If we end up making the playoffs this season, our first round pick will again be in the 22-30 range, outside of the “sure fire” drafting zone, if such a thing exists. But that brings me to part 2. The team that misses out on Tex, whether it be the Yankees or Red Sox or Angels, will still want a big bat. Howard will net you a premium package, especially from an AL team that can utilize him as a DH. Howard’s contract demands are well published, whether they are totally believable or not is up for debate. What we do know, however, is that his arbitration paydays will continue to rise, as he broke the record last winter for players with his amount of service time. When he ends up with 130-140 RBI this season, the Phillies will be looking at $15M in arbitration.

In a trade, Howard will net you either 2 elite prospects plus a player, or a major leaguer and an elite prospect. The prospect(s) will offset the loss of the draft pick, and will be closer to the majors than the draft pick would have been out of the gate. The crux of the biscuit, however, is agreeing to a deal with Teixeria, but keeping that fact quiet so you can maintain your leverage in the trading of Howard. If teams know Tex is signed while Howard is still on the team, it eliminates your leverage entirely. If you trade Howard before a deal is done with Tex, you run the risk of the entire scenario falling apart.

To me, Howard is the much riskier player if you are looking at the next 5 seasons. If he loses bat speed, his value takes a massive hit, as he’s a negative value defensive player, and he can’t really give you any value on the base paths. Because of the shift, he needs to hit 40 HR a year, essentially, to provide value to the team. Tex, while not a lock to hit 45-50 HR, will balance the lineup a bit because he can switch hit, and he is a quality defender at 1B. The question is, can you sign him for 7/120, does he want to come to Philly, and can you do all of this in secrecy so as to not eliminate your leverage with trading Howard? Lots of ifs. But thats my plan.

by Woland on Jul 11, 2008 3:22 AM EDT 0 recs