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Trade Target: A.J. Burnett

Another rumored Phils trade target, Blue Jays right-hander A.J. Burnett, pitched on Sunday and had probably his best start of the season: 8.1 IP, 6 hits, 1 walk, 1 run on a solo homer, 8 strikeouts in a 4-1 win that raised his record to 10-8 and brought his ERA below 5 (4.96). Burnett now leads the American League in strikeouts with 126. Interestingly, he did all this--throwing an economical 98 pitches--on three days' rest.  

It's never cool to admit that one start turns around your opinion on a guy, but I have to do so here. While I'm still wary of Burnett, the big win over the Yankees and his strikeout dominance has me thinking maybe he would be a worthwhile pickup after all. Burnett's 2008 game log is fascinating: especially recently, he's been either superb or awful. Since June 1, he's had nine starts; in four of them, he went at least seven innings and allowed two runs or fewer. And the lineups he did this against--the Angels, Reds, Braves and Yankees--aren't exactly patsies. Over the same stretch, he's surrendered at least seven runs five times--against the Orioles twice, Brewers, and the same Angels lineup he'd held down earlier. 

Still, this might be a great chance to buy low. Burnett's last four seasons have all been solidly above average, with ERAs of 3.68, 3.44, 3.98, and 3.75. His strikeout rate is terrific, and he doesn't allow many home runs. The downside is clear as well: questionable durability, lack of much pennant-race experience, the fact that he's never won more than 12 games in a season. (Interesting fact about Burnett: for the moment, he's gone 10-8 in each of the last three seasons.) But if the Phils can get him for, say, Jason Donald and two lesser pitching prospects--say, Carpenter and Castro--I think he's a risk worth taking. 

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Burnett is clearly a decent option, and would be much better than no move at all, assuming they don’t give up too much for him. If he’s healthy, he’ll opt out and they’ll be in good shape. But if he hurts himself and doesn’t opt out, we would be in trouble.

I thought I heard on BSG that Burnett would veto a trade to Philly as he has a no trade clause. Does anybody know if this is true?

by MattS on Jul 14, 2008 4:27 PM EDT   0 recs

He does have a no trade clause but has apparently said he’d be interested in pitching for a contender. I would imagine that Phillies would fit that description.

by JasonB on Jul 14, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ken Rosenthal reported that
1. He would require his extension to be exercised to be traded
2. He wouldn’t waive his clause to come to Philadelphia

by RodeoJones on Jul 15, 2008 12:38 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ken Rosenthals reliability has always been questionable to me…

by jemagee on Jul 15, 2008 10:07 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

RodeoJones:

Where did you see this reported? It hasn’t been in any of Rosenthal’s recent articles. I’m just desperately hoping it’s not true; if it is, then I have some serious questions about Burnett. I mean, who would rather waste away out of contention in Toronto than be a key cog in a pennant race?

If Burnett would waive the clause to come to Philly, I honestly wouldn’t mind tacking on a third year at $12 million. Yeah, it’s a decent chunk of change, but a starter of his caliber would cost far more than 3 years, $36 million on the open market, so it’s really not that bad of a deal.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 15, 2008 12:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

more accurately

I heard it on 950 ESPN radio here in Philly.

by RodeoJones on Jul 16, 2008 12:27 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Better than Bedard

I like Burnett. I’d trade quite a bit for him. I saw a rumor somewhere that Toronto was interested in Golson—I’d trade him in a microsecond for Burnett. I wouldn’t move either Carrasco or Marson though.

If Burnett would veto a trade to the Phillies, he needs better advice. He’s exactly the sort of pitcher who would do well at CBP—a strikeout pitcher who also gets ground balls.

by phatj on Jul 14, 2008 5:08 PM EDT   0 recs

ntc

I’ve heard all sorts of different stories regarding Burnett’s no-trade clause. Until someone says something definitive otherwise, I’ll assume he’s a possibility. And J’s exactly right—if he doesn’t want to come to the Phils, that probably suggests we shouldn’t want him either (as well as that he needs smarter people advising him).

by dajafi on Jul 14, 2008 5:17 PM EDT   0 recs

No shame in coming around to Burnett, dajafi. But this saga is certainly going to be an interesting one, for several reasons: (1) that we’re on his no-trade list, as mentioned above; (2) his contract situation; and (3) how the contract situation will affect his value.

If he’s going to opt out, then his value is only that of a rental—and one who won’t even garner Type A compensation in the offseason. In that case, I’d give up a Golson/Castro type package, or maybe a Donald/Castro type package (though I’d prefer the former), but I certainly wouldn’t mix and match any of the top prospects. If I’m Ricciardi, I have to seriously consider those deals, since Burnett is likely to opt out at the end of the season anyway (again, without compensation).

Of course, in the unlikely scenario that Burnett were to waive his opt out clause, I’d certainly surrender Golson, Donald, and a B-list prospect to bring him to Philly. He’d be equivalent to signing a great free agent starter on a 2 year, $24 million deal. Not gonna happen though.

Lastly - since Utley’s up in a minute here - Joel Sherman says the Phils actually made an offer on Burnett, but that the Jays were “thoroughly unimpressed” with it. Link here.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 14, 2008 8:44 PM EDT   0 recs

Forgot to mention...

...this is obviously a change from my earlier fanpost, i.e. that I’m not willing to give up both Golson and Donald (mostly for the draft pick compensation issues). But whatever the case, I’m increasingly drawn to Burnett as an option, because it’s a trade the Phils could pull off without surrendering Carrasco (unlike a potential Bedard deal).

by PhillyFriar on Jul 14, 2008 8:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks. The fact that the Phils are “unwilling to discuss Golson”... hmm. If it’s a bargaining position and they “cave” at the 11th hour, that’s cool. If they’re for real on the guy, I won’t be happy. Maybe the light still will come on for Golson; maybe all the performance analyst types (Law, Goldstein, Sheehan, et al) just are biased against anyone with that awful of a walk rate; maybe the light really will come on and he’ll start recognizing pitches. But I’d certainly deal him.

Also, I have a feeling they won’t trade Carrasco pretty much no matter what. For someone like Josh Beckett, you include a prospect like that; for a guy who’s never won more than 15 games or pitched 200 innings-like Bedard-I don’t think you do, the way the game works now.

by dajafi on Jul 14, 2008 9:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Whoops...

...meant my below post in response to you right here, dajafi.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 15, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I’m with you 100% on Golson. I do hope it’s just a bargaining position, though the drafting of uber-tools guy Anthony Hewitt this year frightens me into believing that Gillick & Co. actually consider Golson can’t miss.

At this point, Burnett is my Option #1 because he can be had for less (even if he is only a rental). But if the Phils can’t get anything done, then they’d have to give serious consideration to Option #2, a Bedard deal. I’d certainly be reluctant to give up Carrasco, but unless they want to make a push for Greinke, Bedard’s the only other #1/2 type starter on the market. Carrasco/Golson/de Fratus for 1.5 years of Bedard isn’t a bad tradeoff, in my opinion at least.

by PhillyFriar on Jul 15, 2008 12:13 PM EDT   0 recs

If Bedard’s healthy. The more I read about that, the more I wonder.

by dajafi on Jul 15, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If I'm wrong...

...which is possible, how about Golson, Donald, Edgar Garcia and Eaton for Burnett? If we sweeten the pot would it allow us to rid ourselves of the Eaton problem?

by RodeoJones on Jul 16, 2008 12:29 AM EDT   0 recs

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