Bad Stretch Leaves a Bad Taste

by dajafi on Jul 24, 2008 6:51 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

So since that 20-run eruption against the Cardinals on June 13, the Phillies are 13-20 and, after today's latest painful loss to the Mets, finally have relinquished first place in the NL East. What went wrong? What happens next?

In a word, it's the hitting. Aside from the one magic inning Tuesday night, the Phils managed six runs in three games against their toughest divisional foe. This continues the lousy recent trend, which you've already read too much about--but suffice it to say that they've scored four runs or less in 22 of those 33 games, and two runs or less in 12 of them. Aside from Adam Eaton and Brett Myers, the pitching has been more than adequate--the team has lost three quality Cole Hamels starts over that stretch, three more from Jamie Moyer (including two against the Mets), and one from Kyle Kendrick. It's hard to lose seven quality starts in 33 games unless you're really, really not hitting. And pretty much nobody other than Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard have been particularly good since that game in St. Louis. As a team, the Phils hit .240/.313/.410 between June 14 and July 22, which was Tuesday night's win--so those numbers are even worse now.

Schedule has a little to do with it. Here's another breakdown of the last 33 games:

5 vs. St. Louis (57-46): 2-3
3 vs. Boston (60-43): 1-2
3 vs. LAA (62-39): 0-3
3 vs. Oakland (52-49): 1-2
3 vs. Texas (52-50): 1-2
3 vs. Atlanta (48-53): 3-0
7 vs. Mets (55-47): 2-5
3 vs. Arizona (50-51): 2-1
3 vs. Marlins (53-48): 1-2

27 of them have been against teams currently over .500; in those contests, the Phils are 8-19, and have lost eight out of nine series. Of the six games against Atlanta and Arizona, they've won five.

So now what? The next six games are against the Braves and Nationals. Maybe that bodes well, though I can't imagine they're going to sweep Atlanta in three consecutive series; I'd take two of three at this point. The Nats are a mess, but the Phils will see Tim Redding in that series, which means trouble. Then they've got a return visit to St. Louis, where all this misery started, to begin the month of August. Then a six-game homestand against the Marlins and Pirates, and then a west coast swing through LA and San Diego. By then, we should know what kind of stretch run we're in for.

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At the same time...

Checked this out today. At the same time as those series (and even a few before then) the team we were playing had a better record than the team the Mets were playing. Sometimes by a little, sometimes by a lot. (Not counting head to head series).

The exception: one series we played Atlanta while they played St Louis. That’s happening again, and they’re getting at least one bad starter going against them again, which just about evens the Braves and Cards out.

Sure, they’ve played some of those teams, but they’ve had their Rockies, Giants series mixed in there too.

by EastFallowfield on Jul 24, 2008 8:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

There’s a very simple reason the Phillies are not looking up at the Mets.

They’ve been pretty much dominated by the Mets. Haven’t the Mets one every single series between the two?

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by JasonB on Jul 24, 2008 8:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yup. Mets have won nine of the thirteen games, covering all four series. In three of them, the Mets came back to win the series after the Phils took the first game.

by dajafi on Jul 24, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, since it’s the bats, thank god we got joe blanton and are now targeting relief pitching, that will wake up the bats.

Nice to jimmy benched for disciplinary reasons again?

by jemagee on Jul 24, 2008 9:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is really the issue. It’s almost like they can’t figure out how to “fix” the bats-or they’re too invested in the idea that Utley and Rollins (the two biggest culprits over the last month-plus, at least compared to expectations; if Ruiz puts up a .450 OPS over 33 games, is it a surprise?) will “come around” and bring everyone else along even to contemplate and plan for the contingency that they won’t—so they futz around with the pitching.

That said, I think the last two games showed that the long-awaited pumpkinization of the bullpen has begun. So another reliever might be useful.

by dajafi on Jul 24, 2008 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rollins benching...

I lifted the following quote from the article on the phillies official website. It’s by Jimmy Rollins:

“In the past, a loss was like, ‘We needed this one.’ Now it’s like, ‘We didn’t get it, let’s go out there tomorrow and win.’ That’s the difference in attitude. That’s what usually starts turning things around.”

uhh… I’d really prefer that they took the earlier approach. The latter mentality scares me.

by Bilzo on Jul 25, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s so tough to quantify things like “lack of urgency.” But something seems different. For now I’ll continue to call it “worse approach to at-bats.”

And it’s contagious. It’s easy to remember the three first-pitch swings that ended yesterday’s game. But earlier, Feliz hacked at ball four on a 3-0 count, then was popped up. And Burrell, who’s consistently had the best approach all year, had a terrible AB with Bruntlett on 3rd and one out in the 6th—he swung at a high and outside fastball, popped it up, and the runner was stranded. That’s just pressing… I think.

by dajafi on Jul 25, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lack of bats

Yea it’s a culmination of things and it appears that some players are trying to make up for things with one at bat and trying to hard to hit the long ball. They need to have more patient at bats and make the pitchers throw to them and find themselves in hitter counts. Utley struggled in the Mets series and has been struggling since before the All-Star break. He is too good a hitter to be held down for long, he will come around. JRoll needs to step it up and the more production we get out of the top of the lineup the easier it is to jump out ahead which typically means a W.

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by Oddsboard on Jul 25, 2008 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs