Those damn expectations...
They will kill you. We certainly have developed a feeling of deservedness. What is good can always be better. The old version is always better than the new one. How quickly we forget what it was like when we had the old version. If only I could break the space-time continuum and have people taste test last year's Phillies with this year's and really see what they'd prefer. 2 less wins and in third place or 2 more wins and in first place? It seems obvious, but, you'd not think that listening to a lot of grumbling around town. It took the Atlanta Braves like 6 or 7 years to get sick of making the playoffs. We aren't even through half of the second season...
Whiner: The Phils aren't as good as last year! Their offense sucks and their pitching is lucky!
Truth:
Last year:
Phils Scored: 5.51 runs/game (OPS+ 111)
Phils Allowed: 5.07 runs/game (ERA+ 97)
This year:
Phils Score: 4.89 runs/game (OPS+ 103)
Phils Allow: 4.27 runs/game (ERA+ 113)
So, we have a net loss of 8 points in OPS+ and a net gain of 16 points in ERA+. Our offense has obviously dropped off from last year while our pitching has made up for it two-fold. The easiest complaint is that the pitching is playing over it's head and isn't this good. Can we not make the same comment about the offense?
Whiner: The Phils playing down to their opponents. They can never beat scrubs from bad teams!
Truth: Like every team in the league doesn't do the same thing. The Phillies have losing records against 7 clubs:
BOS 1 2
FLA 5 7
LAA 0 3
NYM 4 9
OAK 1 2
TEX 1 2
TOR 1 2
Those teams have an average winning percentage of .533. Only Oakland had a losing record and that is because they traded off a few of their best players.
Whiner: But the Phils are so inconsistent in their offense. They have been shutout 8 times. Look at the Mets, just 4 shutouts!
Truth: Many good teams are inconsistent.
Marlins: 7 shutouts
Cubs: 6 shutouts
Braves: 11 shutouts
Red Sox: 6 shutouts
Detroit: 11 shutouts
White Sox: 9 shutouts
Yankees: 7 shutouts
Look, I'd love for them to be shutout less, but would 1 or 2 runs really do it for you?
Whiner: But they hit into so many double plays!
Truth: Before last night's debacle...
Phillies: 77 GIDPs. 25th in MLB and just 1 more than the 28th team.
Whiner: But they have a #1 and 4 #5s!
Truth: Phils have a #1, a #2 and possibly 3 #3s.
Hamels: 133 ERA+
Moyer: 118 ERA+
Kendrick: 102 ERA+
Myers: 87 ERA+
Blanton: 136 ERA+ (limited time)
Myers has looked very good since coming back up and Blanton is somehow getting it done. I think most teams wish they saw these numbers next to their starter's names.
Whiner: But this team has no heart like last year's team. With Rowand, we'd be like 10 games up and suckling on the teat of division champions already!
Truth: Mr. Grit took his flying facesmash act to where the money was. If he wanted to win so badly he would have stayed in Philly. We can see how good his BBQs are doing for the Giants. Also, his line is very mediocre.
2007: .309 .374 .515 OPS+ 123
2008: .281 .352 .432 OPS+ 106
That is 28 points in BA, 22 points in OBP, 83 points in SLG and 17 points in OPS+.
Whiner: But this team is so unlikable! Whaa whaa whaa.
Truth: You are just looking for a reason to hate. Last year's team wasn't any better than this one. You only loved them on the final day of the season; they were frustrating as all hell up until that point (ok, maybe Hamels' beaut on the Friday before). The Phillies are in first place on August 11th and have been there for 63 days this season. Last year's Phillies were in first for 2 days.
Bottom Line: Of the three teams in the NL East, the Phillies have played the best so far. They have the best run differential AND record, which means that as inconsistent as they have been, the Mets and Marlins have been even MORE inconsistent (lets not forget that the Marlins lost a game where they scored 17 runs). Interestingly enough, the Phillies are 7 games better than the Mets against the rest of the league and 4.5 games better than the Marlins against the rest of the league. The Mets and Marlins are not better than the Phillies, so, we can expect them to play better against those two teams.
Take a freakin pill you effin whiners. Your team is LEADING the NL East by 2 games, has the SECOND best run differential in the NL, has the THIRD best record and has a solid 60% chance of making the playoffs. All people do around here is complain. Maybe we have found out the reason why the Phillies have the WORST homefield advantage in all of baseball since 2004. The fans here can really suck.
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14 comments
Comments
Good analysis
I’m still in the optimism camp and I think a large part of the poor (or inconsistent) offense is BABIP. As I posted here:
They have a .230 BABIP in August (three games apiece at STL, vs. FLA, and vs. PIT).
Overall, they have a .281 BABIP. With a 19.4 LD%, we’d expect that BABIP to be around .315.
http://crashburnalley.com/
by Crashburn Alley on Aug 11, 2008 6:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Not to be negative...
But on the converse, our DIPS is like 111 which means our pitching has been lucky the other way, probably by justa s much. All this means to me is that the pitching is likely to come back down to earth and the hitting will likely heat up and instead of losing a 12 inning game scoring no runs, we’ll win a 9 inning game by the score of 7-5. Record will likely be around the same even with both regressing to the mean.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Aug 11, 2008 7:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s a good point, jonk.
http://crashburnalley.com/
by Crashburn Alley on Aug 11, 2008 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Excellent post. It certainly opened my eyes a bit and made me feel better about the Phillies’ position and chances.
by Cluttered_JML on Aug 11, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Personally, I think the reason we have had the worst homefield advantage is because our ballpark is too damn small—not enough room for angels in the outfield.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 11, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Whining
Great post, a reality check, and…you do get that you are whining about whining, right? It is bred into we Phils’ Phans.
by Valo on Aug 11, 2008 12:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So how the hell did Adam Dunn clear waivers? Let’s see, Geoff Jenkins or Adam Dunn…hmm, tough one.
by FuquaManuel on Aug 11, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Trade
You’d still have to send Cincy some minor leaguers, maybe even a real prospect or two. They didn’t just let him go.
by EastFallowfield on Aug 11, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i’m betting Adam Dunn make significantly more than Geoff Jenkins.
Believe it or not, he probably strikes out more as well, and is likely a worse fielder.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t rather have Dunn, but it’s not a total slam dunk. Jenkins is bad, but Dunn is selectively worse in certain categories.
A 500’ homer counts just as much as a 320’ homer that is actually a foul ball.
by Bilzo on Aug 11, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Dunn has an OPS of .900…he gets on base 37% of the time. Compare that to Geoff Jenkins .300 OBP and sub-.700 OPS and you have a player whose offensive value far eclipses any difference in defense that exists between these two players—and I say this without actually having looked at their defensive numbers, for all I know Dunn is better than Jenkins. Yes, Dunn over Jenkins is a 100% total slam dunk, no brainer.
I wonder what kind of prospects Arizona gave up…
by FuquaManuel on Aug 11, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
inconsistency
the phillies offense is far more inconsistent in the past. the standard deviation of RS/G this year is way higher than previous years. I commented on another post the other day with specific numbers, but it was something like 5.0 RS/G with a SD of 3.7, compared to previous years having about 5.4-5.5 with SDs of 3.0-3.3 for 2005 and 2006.
all in all, i think it’s a mixture of people being disappointed that we were so far ahead and have regressed, and expectations based on last year—we’re pretty spoiled.
by Matt Swartz on Aug 11, 2008 7:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m checking in from vacation to state that I approve of this message.
The pitching staff really has been a revelation. I’m going to write something about this when I get back. Intensely annoying as the offense is-and as worried as I am that the Jenkins/Bruntlett/Ruiz “Black Hole II” could doom the Phils in the playoffs or even block them from getting there-the terrific work of the bullpen and the recent great run of starts is a way bigger deal.
On balance-and accounting for health as a huge factor in the comparison-you have to take the 2008 team thus far over last year’s model.
by dajafi on Aug 11, 2008 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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