The Crazy Descision to Play Ryan Howard Against Lefties

by christonabike on Aug 23, 2008 2:37 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Ryan Howard has now had 752 PAs against left handed pitchers. His line?

.221/.304/.440 (OPS: .744) with strikeouts in 41.4% of ABs. In 2008 against LHP he has hit:

.184/.254/.337 (OPS: .591), striking out just over 44% of the time.

It is time to stop playing Ryan Howard against left handers. More evidence and ideas inside.

The most asinine part of playing Ryan Howard against lefties isn't that he plays at all. It's that he's still batting clean up. Ryan Howard has the highest leverage index (a measure of the importance of batting situations) of any player on the Phillies that hasn't seen significant pinch hitting duty.

For reference, here is the career OPS against left handers of every Phillie that typically starts against LHP*:

Jimmy Rollins: .796
Shane Victorino: .823
Chase Utley: .861
Pat Burrell: .949
Jayson Werth: .892
Pedro Feliz: .761
Chris Coste: .933

In case you couldn't tell from the above numbers, Ryan Howard is the worst hitter in the lineup against LHP. This year, when Ryan Howard has faced lefites, he's been worse than Carlos Ruiz.

Now, admittedly the Phillies don't have anyone else they can play at 1st that would hit better than Howard against lefties. If only there was someone available for the major league minimum...

Don't like Richie Sexson? The minors are packed with RH 1B that can only hit lefties. In fact, the Phillies already have one. HIs name is Jon Knott, he's 28 years old and has never seen significant playing time in the majors. Oh, and he's been crushing LHP at AAA to the tune of a 1.103 OPS (83 ABs) and is at .902 for his career.

If the Phillies want to be competitive this year or in the future, they need to find a solution for Ryan Howard's ineptitude against LHP.

*Bonus challenge: Can you construct a lineup better against LHP than the one the Phillies use? I'm prett sure a randomly generated line up would be better.

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Comments

Couldn’t agree more.

If Howard is worse than Ruiz against lefties then why not plug Coste into 1b and start Ruiz at catcher against LHP?

by FuquaManuel on Aug 23, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That statement was meant to say that Howard against LHP this season has been worse than Ruiz against both RHP and LHP.

Ruiz is actually one of those weird right handers with reverse splits – he’s better against RHP than LHP. While Ruiz has been better against LHP than Howard this year, he isn’t for his career and I don’t think he would be consistently.

by christonabike on Aug 23, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

because then you don’t have a backup catcher if one of those two guys pulls a hammy in the 2nd inning.

by Bilzo on Aug 25, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Um, isn’t the other one a backup catcher?

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Aug 27, 2008 4:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think .744 against LHP is probably still slightly above replacement level for a 1B. certainly not the OPS of a cleanup hitter.

by Matt Swartz on Aug 23, 2008 3:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I believe that .744 is also above replacement level for a 1B. However, the Phillies don’t need a 1B capable of putting up a .750 OPS against RHP and LHP. They need one capable of putting up .800 against LHP only. My claim would be the latter is far easier to find than the former.

by christonabike on Aug 23, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cole looking super-dooper.

by FuquaManuel on Aug 23, 2008 4:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wrong thread, sorry.

by FuquaManuel on Aug 23, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My biggest concern hasto do with high leverage situations. Howard starting against a lefty batting 4th or 6th might not make that big of an impact in the final score. Howard facing a lefty with 2 on and 2 outs in the 8th is the concern. Now, you could pinch hit for him, but it is hard to do that because he is your big power hitter, is probably a better bet for a homerun than someone off the bench and you may need him if the game goes extras.

The best move to protect Howard from lefties is what we have seen the Phils just do. Put Pat batting ahead of him. Now, a lefty either has to face Pat if Chase is up that inning and they bring one in, or Howard faces a righty (unless they make a move for each player).

The best way to manage is to give your players the best chance to succeed. Benching Howard when a lefty comes up isn’t putting him in the best spot to succeed. Forcing the other team to make a ton of moves or let Pat or Ryan face the opposite handed pitcher IS what gives your players the best chance to succeed.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Aug 24, 2008 5:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think that at the least, he needs to hit lower in the order against lefties. But in terms of boosting his numbers, a more patient approach against them would help. Yesterday he pretty much put that game away against Kershaw (who admittedly looked gassed at the time) in the 5th: he got ahead 3-0, zoned in, and hit the pitch into the gap for a two-run double that made it 6-2.

In terms of a lineup against lefties, how about:

Rollins
Werth
Utley
Burrell
Victorino
Howard
Feliz
Coste
(Pitcher)

Rollins, Werth and Victorino are basically interchangeable here; Jimmy and Shane both hit for considerably more power against lefties, as (of course) does Werth.

by dajafi on Aug 24, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lefty Lineup for Me

Victorino
Werth
Utley
Burrell
Rollins
Howard
Coste
Feliz
(pitcher)

Victorino has excelled in getting on base, getting an extra base lately. he should be leading off.
I’d like to move Coste up, but can’t see where to do it.

by Bilzo on Aug 25, 2008 1:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs