Brett Myers III

by jonk on Aug 27, 2008 5:46 AM EDT

Call me crazy, but this is one of the images I get in my head when I think of Brett Myers this year...

This was the epic battle performed while he was in the minors. Good versus evil (though, in Myer's case, it may be evil vs slightly more evil). Either way, it looks like mild mannered Brett Myers has fought off his demons and returned to us. Sure, he ain't this good, but you know, I spent a lot of time saying he wasn't that bad earlier, so, I guess it evens out.

From March 31st to June 27th, here is Myer's line:

3 W 9 L 101.2 IP 115 H 70 R 44 BB 24 HR 88 K 5.84 ERA 45 Avg GS .907 OPSA

From July 23rd to August 25th, here is Myer's line:

4 W 1 L 48.2 IP 39 H 10 R 13 BB 38 K 2 HR 1.66 ERA 64 Avg GS .587 OPSA

What can we make of this? I am sure MattS has some sort of detailed analysis of GB/FB and ratios and stuff, but has Brett been a different person/pitcher lately? I am not sure what can really be determined by this or if it is just luck or normalization of some stats. But the difference is striking and I don't know if it has anything to do with his demotion, but that turns out to be the spot of the split.

The 3 basic rate stats look like this:

Pre demotion: 3.9 BB/9 2.16 HR/9 7.80 K/9
Post demotion: 2.41 BB/9 0.37 HR/9 7.38 K/9

So, is walks per 9 have dropped by 1.5, his HRs per 9 have dropped bu almost 2 and his strikeouts have actually dropped by about .5 per 9. The biggest impact on his ERA is clearly the homeruns. You are talking about at least 2 runs a game just based on homeruns, ignoring people on base (though there is a stat (and I am doing this off of memory) that Myers has the fewest 3 and 4 run homeruns in MLB of all players with over 100 HRs given up).

Is this sustainable?

Career: 3.20 BB/9 1.31 HR/9 7.54 K/9

Looks like there is a nice middle ground for him to settle into. It seems that the decrease in walks and strikeouts result in more balls in play. Those tended to be flyballs for the old Brett, but the new Brett is seeing a ton more groundballs.

Pre: 1.27 GB/FB
Post: 1.925 GB/FB

I think the primary reason for this is his use of his offspeed pitches. He seems to be throwing his curveball (and for strikes) a lot more. He had games earlier in the year where it looked like he was 80-85% fastballs, and players were teeing off of them. I don't know if this is just teams not having a new scouting report on Myers or just a better approach for him. It will be an interesting last month of the season to see how this ends up.

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Nice work. I think this is where the non-analytical side comes into play. There’s nothing to suggest that his stuff changed. I think the difference was all in his head. I really do think the bullpen thing screwed with him during the first part; it just didn’t seem his concentration was there. He never seemed capable of staying focused the whole time. I do see a difference now. I think it was Hoffman or someone else who wrote about the blatant missed calls in his last start, and how Myers stayed focused and came back to strike out Kent. Yeah, it was Hoffman. Anyway, I think that was right on the money. I don’t know what happened, but it seemed like he got his mind straight.

by Alex Falzone on Aug 27, 2008 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

He keeps saying things like “Now, I’m pitching.” The implication being, I guess, that before, he was just throwing. But what I think this means is that he’s making more of a conscious effort to sequence pitches, respond to the situation, get ahead in the count, etc—all of which we could argue is borne out by the higher groundball rate.

Since coming back, he’s faced the Nationals twice, the Dodgers twice, and the Mets, Cardinals and Pirates once each. I don’t think any of those lineups are super-imposing, though I suppose you could make a case for the Dodgers, Cardinals and Mets being at least league-average. I’ll be very interested to see how he handles the Cubs this weekend.

by dajafi on Aug 27, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

He has great career numbers against the Cubs, so I am feeling pretty optimistic.

by FuquaManuel on Aug 27, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Shockingly enough, your outlook is unrealistically rose-colored. Myers’ career numbers against the Cubs are his numbers against a uniform. Against the actual guys on the current Cubs, his track record is… worrisome. Derrek Lee owns (OWNS!) him. Edmonds and Ramirez also hit him well. And Soriano has homered off of him three times in 20 AB (though he’s only 5/20 overall).

by taco pal on Aug 27, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions

good point. I stand corrected.

by FuquaManuel on Aug 27, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the reason I said that was because I assumed that his numbers against the cubs included a lot of the guys currently on the team, now I realize that he hasn’t pitched much against the Lee, Ramirez Cubs, much less the Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Soriano, Edmonds, Fukudome, etc. etc. Cubs.

by FuquaManuel on Aug 27, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up reply actions