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The Known Unknowns

'Round these parts, we've been preoccupied with who the Phillies will run out as a fifth starter on two more occasions between now and the end of the regular season: the self-destructing Kyle Kendrick and his painful collision with regression to the mean? Rookie J.A. Happ, who finished badly at Lehigh Valley and can struggle with command? The nightmare that lurks behind Door Number Three?

After this weekend's four-game sweep of the Brewers--in which none of the above took the mound--the concern has receded a bit. But the way the schedule lines up right now, Starter #5 will match up twice with Braves hurler Jair Jurrjens, probably the best starter the Phils will face in the last 12 games. If they lose those two, and run into bad fortune elsewhere along the line against the prideful Braves, resurgent Nationals or a Marlins team that has handled them all year, we could be sitting here in two weeks' time wondering what the hell happened.

Then again, it could be worse. The Phils' two primary rivals for the last two playoff spots, the Mets and Brewers, have arguably much bigger problems.

Star-divide

The Mets' biggest problem, of course, is their bullpen. New York has blown 11 saves in the ninth inning, 27 overall. They squandered two more late leads over the weekend, allowing the Phillies to gain back 2.5 games. The Nationals traded Luis Ayala, lugging a 1-8 record and a 5.77 ERA, to New York in mid-August. Thrown into the closer's role  just days later, Ayala converted seven of his first eight save opportunities--but after failing to protect a 4-2 lead in the ninth on Sunday, he's now on a shorter leash, and rumor has it that he might be battling an injury. The question is where else Jerry Manuel can turn: Brian Stokes and Bobby Parnell are rookies (edit: Stokes is not a rookie), Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez are struggling with their confidence, and Scott Schoeweis, Pedro Feliciano and Joe Smith all are better suited for situational duties. It wouldn't be a total shock to see Manuel give John Maine a try, if the righty can return from an injury within the next few days.

Milwaukee faces an even bigger uncertainty, after firing manager Ned Yost on Monday following their four-game sweep at the hands of the Phillies. As I wrote yesterday, it's a panic move, but maybe a justified one: the question is how the team will respond. Do they see it as a vote of confidence in the talent within the locker room, or just a blind throw of the dice? The Brewers do have the advantage of sending out their two co-aces, CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, three times each over their remaining 12 games; the problem is that six of those games are against the Cubs, who have won six of the teams' previous ten meetings this season, including a huge four-game sweep in Milwaukee to end July.

Strap yourselves in for a crazy end to (this part of) the ride.

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Mets

Nice synopsis of the Mets’ bullpen situation. Just one note: Brian Stokes appeared in 64 games with the Rays from 2006-2007, so he’s not technically a rookie. Otherwise, spot on.

by Eric Simon on Sep 16, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My bad, thanks.

That might be even more reason to let him try and close. The guy can pitch.

by dajafi on Sep 16, 2008 2:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Was about to post it here as well.

Good decision, I think. Kendrick is just too easy a target for lefties, and maybe the Phils will gain some advantage by the fact that the Braves haven’t seen Happ. (The same factor I worry will hurt us tonight against James Parr, a 22 year-old righty who hasn’t yet allowed a run in 12 MLB innings.)

by dajafi on Sep 16, 2008 5:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here’s the thing, in the Phillies situation, they are best suited to start their 5th starter (presuming he has to start) against the better pitchers as it makes the other pitchers more likely to win (facing lesser starters).

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 16, 2008 11:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jair Jurrjens

I can’t take a guy with a name like this seriously.

Honestly, though, if he’s the best starter the Phils will face the rest of the way, I like their chances. And I would have said the same before tonight.

by phatj on Sep 17, 2008 11:29 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair, I worry that I’ve somehow tilted the universe toward Jason Johnson, whom I think we’ll see Friday night. (Maybe I named the wrong JJ). And it wouldn’t be a Nationals series in the last weekend, I’m sure, without that Tim Redding to harrow our souls.

by dajafi on Sep 18, 2008 1:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Erm, that’s Josh Johnson.

by dajafi on Sep 18, 2008 10:43 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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