Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell: Mr. Clutch and Mr. Not-So-Much
by David S. Cohen on Sep 17, 2008 12:04 PM EDT
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A great misconception about sabermetric baseball fans is that we don't believe in clutch hitting. The truth is that we don't believe that there's any inherent quality in an individual hitter that makes him more of a dependable clutch hitter than any other hitter. Statistical studies have generally shown that no such quality exists (except at the extreme margins), and general common sense says that any baseball player who can't handle pressure was weeded out of the game long before the major leagues.
But, that doesn't mean that we don't believe that you can't characterize past events as clutch or not. There's no controversy there - some hits are clutch; and some performances are, well, not so much.
And that's what we saw last night from Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell. Howard continued his torrid September by hitting a game-winning 2-run home run in the top of the eighth with two outs and a full count. At the end of the game, Howard's September triple-slash line sat at .396/.448/1.000 for a 1.448 OPS. Think about that 1.000 SLG for a second. That means that Howard averages one base for every at-bat. That's incredible.
What's amazing about Howard's season is just how good he's been since May 9. Before May 9, he was horrendous. On that date, his numbers were .167/.282/.326 for an OPS of .608. That's pretty much incomprehensible for a player of Howard's caliber. But, since then, he's been a monster. He's hit to the tune of .273/.352/.600 for an OPS of .952. That's still less than his career OPS of .969 and is nothing compared to his MVP year 1.084 OPS. But, a .952 OPS would place him 9th in the majors and 5th in the NL this year. I'd say he's been pretty good from May 10 on.
And his counting stats have been even more impressive. Since May 10, he's played 114 games. In those games, he has 39 home runs, 119 RBI, and 77 runs scored. Translated over an entire season's worth of games, that's a pace for 55 home runs, 169 RBI, and 109 runs. Now that's production.
On the other hand, we have Pat Burrell. Last night, he struck out five times in five plate appearances. Two of those strikeouts came with men on base when the Phillies needed a run -- in the fifth when the Phils were ahead by only one and two men were on; and in the seventh when the Phils were down by two and had a man on third. Burrell flailed at the plate. Luckily, Howard picked him up last night with his 8th inning homer.
The amazing thing about Burrell is how his past two seasons have played out when looked at together. He has been two completely different players. Check out this chart:
| Games | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | R | |
| Combined | 125 | 0.195 | 0.333 | 0.396 | 0.729 | 14 | 52 | 42 |
| Overlap | 177 | 0.291 | 0.416 | 0.605 | 1.021 | 47 | 124 | 105 |
The first line are Burrell's combined stats from the beginning of last season (until July 1) and the second half of this season (from July 23 on). The second line is Burrell's stats when you overlap the two seasons -- from July 2 last season until July 22 this season. I chose those dates because they were his high and low points over the past two years. On July 1 last year, his OPS stood at a measly .733. It only went up after that game. Conversely, on July 22 this year, Burrell's OPS was 1.004. It has only declined since then.
What we have here are two completely different players. From the beginning of last season until July 1 and from July 23 of this year until now, we have a weak-hitting middle infielder inhabiting Burrell's body. In between, though, we have an MVP.
It was great having the MVP showing up to last September's games. Too bad this September we get the weak-hitting middle infielder.
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Nice piece, David.
It’s kinda sad, but I feel that this prolonged slump, and the emergence of Jayson Werth, has basically punched Burrell’s ticket out of town.
by WholeCamels on Sep 17, 2008 12:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The off-day might have really hurt Burrell. He had the big hit late in the first game of the doubleheader, then a homer in the nightcap, and his confidence probably was coming back. Then after the off-day, one of the worst games of his career.
At this point you have to sit him against righties, I think, and hope somehow he finds “it” over the next week and change.
by dajafi on Sep 17, 2008 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Pat’s getting screwed in the deal here… He should also get to utilize the weak-hitting middle infielder’s legs for defensive purpoes as well then…
Seriiously though, I think Whole is right about the emergence or Werth. We can probably lock him up for 3 years at significantly less money and if he continues his evolution, it looks like we might get similar power numbers, only a better average to boot. Anyone want to use the crystal ball and figure out what we do to plug the other outfield position? Who’s (realistically) going to be available?
by foos05 on Sep 17, 2008 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Rocco Baldelli, Bobby Abreu, Casey Blake, Brad Wilkerson
Others may become available as well if their options are not picked up. Id like Dunn over Burrell. Baldelli would be nice if healthy. Ditto for Milton Bradley. I would not want Manny. Phils will be in mix for a high priced pitcher. Especially if new GM wants to make a splash. I think Milton Bradley is the most likely. If phils are looking in house Jason Donald or Pedro Feliz can play LF/3B.
by schrifty on Sep 17, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i realize yesterday's game is always the most important one of the season, but...
Howard’s WPA: +1.4 wins
Burrell’s WPA: +3.6 wins
Howard’s clutchiness: -1.2 wins
Burrell’s clutchiness: +1.0 wins
Howard’s performance in “close and late” situations: .163/.303/.347 119 PAs
Burrell’s performance in “close and late” situations: .286/.439/.607 107 PAs
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice points
Keep in mind – yesterday’s game was the entire basis of the “clutch” and “not so much” labels. The rest of the stats are more than yesterday’s game, of course.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 17, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it just seems misleading to make a point about clutch-hitting in a single game
sure, celebrate Howard’s triple and homerun (and ignore how he got thrown out at home). but when he’s actually been a poor clutch hitter this year and Burrell’s been a good one and that’s not mentioned, well, yeah.
and to compare Howard’s performance since May 9th to Burrell’s 2007 first half/2008 second half is also misleading. i’d like to see how their numbers compare including all of 2007 and 2008 combined. who’s been more productive?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seeing as how DC did not claim that one guy was inherently more clutch than the other (and explicitly said so in the post), how is it “misleading”? Misleading toward what end?
by taco pal on Sep 17, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree with the author's comments about clutch. but part of his statement was that being clutch in the past has real value.
the examples from yesterday’s game imply Howard has been more clutch in the past than Burrell has. which is not true. oh, and there’s also the title of the article, which is pretty blatant.
listen, my intention is not to rip on the author — it’s just to clear up any confusion that Howard has been a better hitter than Burrell over the past two years or that he’s been more clutch. yesterday Howard was better. overall, no. if we all agree on that, i’m happy. please continue to celebrate two huge hits by Howard in a huge win for the Phillies.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Taco has it
My clutch point was about last night’s game. The rest of the post was jumping off of last night’s game to look at interesting aspects of two different players’ stats. I really was making nothing more about those players’ clutchiness other than the observations from yesterday.
by David S. Cohen on Sep 17, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ok, that's fair. thanks for elaborating.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“ignore how he got thrown out at home”
ummm….I think that’s Steve Smith’s call, not Howard’s, unless he ran through a stop sign. With two outs, I don’t think that’s a horrific decision. Didn’t work, but probably better odds of him scoring there (and putting Victorino in scoring position behind him) then there were of Feliz knocking him in.
I think that was the correct decision, just didn’t work, and I’m not going to fault Howard for being slow. I don’t think his contract was written with stolen bases in mind. He also made an awesome attempt at beating the tag on the slide.
Summary: Howard’s got his faults. Picking on him about this instance is quite mis-guided and ridiculous.
by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
of course you fault Howard for being slow
slow baserunners cost their team on the order of five runs per season. fast runners are the same amount on the plus side.
do you not hold David Eckstein accountable for have zero power because that’s not what his contract was based on?
to be fair, I know nothing about this specific instance of getting thrown out at home. but if Howard is too slow to be sent in the first place or so slow that he gets caught at home when many others would be safe, that’s a knock against him. there are many times speed doesn’t cost the team. but sometimes it does. if in fact this was one of those times, his own lack of speed created the situation that made him look clutch later in the game.
it’s like the story of his season (and Delgado’s and many others). they are getting MVP credit just for getting their teams out of the hole that they helped create. the MVP talk should really be going to the players who have done more all year in order to make up for the half-season lack of production and even keeping their teams in the race for the August and September hot streaks to mean anything.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
your statements are in line with a manager sending a pitcher to plate to pinch hit and then faulting him for striking out because in the NL, having a good hitting pitcher is worth like 5 runs a year.
“to be fair, I know nothing about this specific instance of getting thrown out at home”
Obviously not. 2 outs, he was on first. Victorino hit a ball towards the RF corner. Francoeur (who has a very good arm) cut it off before it got to the corner. Hit the cutoff man who made a perfect throw to the plate. That’s a calculated risk by the 3B coach, and it didn’t work. Howard appeared to be running as hard as possible and did what he was asked by the 3b coach which was run towards home and try to avoid the tag.
by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i still don't get your excuse for Howard here
would a guy with league-average speed have made it? assuming yes, then Howard cost his team a run here. in fact, more than a run, because the inning couldn’t continue.
if you argue that the third base coach should have stopped him at third, then he still cost the team a run by having to be held at third instead of being sent home. (well, a little less than a run because he might still have scored later in the inning.)
and yes, poor-hitting pitchers deserve to blamed for however much worse they are than the average-hitting pitcher. it’s tough to find fault with specific at-bats, because you can’t assume a slightly better-hitting pitcher would have gotten a hit. but it adds up. for the Howard base-running example, the difference between Howard and a league-average runner is huge going from first to home.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well then…I guess every player in the league should be in the 40-40 club and be able to throw a no-hitter.
Your expectations are unreasonable. Your blame is misplaced.
Failing to score from first on a double with two outs is not representation of lack of ‘clutch’ performance. Howard can be fairly accosted for his poor fielding and atrocious strikeout rate. Getting thrown out at the plate at the direction of his coaches on a good defensive play is not a demerit.
by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2008 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is my last post making the same point, i promise
i’m not holding anyone to any absolute standard — i’m just holding players accountable relative to other players.
if (IF!) 80% of baserunners will score from first on that play and Howard can’t, he loses some credit relative to those other players.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 17, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but you promised!!!
you’ve stated that being slow is a detriment. Not rocket science.
I’d have given you more credit if you’d said “Howard knew he couldn’t possibly be safe, so he defied his coaches orders” but that’s not the approach you’re taking. Nobody is buying this lousy crap you’re selling. Move on to next topic.
by Bilzo on Sep 18, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is fairly absurd. First off, a league average runner may not have made it, but he also may never have been on base to begin with. The implication you are making about Howard staying at third costing the team a little less than a run is very broad. I mean, should every hitter try to score on every hit and if they don’t, they cost their team a run?
Howard’s speed is certainly a fault against him with respect to his overall game. Nobody is going to argue that. However, that has no bearing on whether he should have scored or not on that play ESPECIALLY since Smith KNOWS about Howard’s speed and sent him anyway. That’s like asking your daughter to pee standing up like your son and then blaming her when she can’t.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Sep 18, 2008 12:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if pissing standing up helped score runs, your daughter would be a worse player than your son.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Sep 18, 2008 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But why are you yelling at her then? You can't force her to pee standing up.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Sep 18, 2008 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can only speak for myself (Pujols, easy), but my guess is you wouldn’t find much if any disagreement here on the subject of the MVP race.
by dajafi on Sep 17, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pujols is probably most deserving, but if Howard gets to 50 HR with 150 RBI and the Phils win the division (that’s 3 big "ifs"), Howard will walk away with the trophy.
by Bilzo on Sep 17, 2008 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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