Best Case Scenario

To me, the best case scenario has nothing to do with the individual teams and matchups, but rather, limiting the exposure of their best players against ours.  Since there is nothing we can do to force that, we can hope that luck throws us an Ace of Spades.

Going on the presumption that the final standing will look like this:

Cubs
NL East Winner
NL West Winner
Wild Card

We have the following scenarios:

Phils take East, Brewers take WC, Phils play Brewers.
Phils take East, Mets take WC, Phils play NL West winner.
Phils take WC, Phils play Cubs.

Of those scenarios, which ones work out best for the Phillies?  The WC scenario is the only one where we do not have home field advantage (which is less of a concern for the Phillies than the Cubs), but not a desirable proposition.  Factor in facing Zambrano and Harden in the first two games and this appears to be the least acceptable.

That basically has us rooting for the Mets or the Brewers.  If the Mets win, we face the NL West.  If it is LA, the current leader, we face Billingsly and Lowe.  If we face Arizona, then it would be Webb and Haren with a little RJ sprinkled in.  Looks like LA would be a better choice in terms of starters faced.  If the Brewers win, we face Sabathia and Sheet (probably). 

So, it seems like LA would be the most desirable of all possibilities in terms of starters faced.  While that may, or may not be true, the best case is if we don't have to face one of the top starters in the first or second game.  What is an easier rotation to face?

Sabathia
Sheets
Bush
Sabathia
Sheets

Or

Sheets
Bush
Sabathia
Sheets
Bush

The same thing goes with LA.  I'd much prefer to face Billingsly once rather than twice.  So, the best case is hoping that the Mets and Brewers tie for the wild card.  Sabathia is scheduled to pitch on Thursday the 25th against Pittsburgh.  If they don't push him back to face the Cubs, then he'd likely start the 1 game playoff against the Mets. 

The Dodgers actually have Billingsly scheduled to pitch on the last Sunday.  If they are one up on the DBs, then I could see them holding off Billingsly to pitch in the playoff game. 

Ths NLCS is slated to start on Wednesday Oct 1st with game 2 on Thursday.  Neither pitcher would likely to be ready to pitch on Thursday (well, maybe Sabathia) if they had pitched on Monday.  This gives the possibility that you would only face their best pitcher once in the playoffs and their 3rd or even 4th best pitcher an extra time. 

I am hoping that the Mets and Brewers tie, we see a CC/Santana game where the Brewers win and then have to come into Philly expecting CC to only pitch in game 3.  If the Mets take the WC, I am hoping the Dodgers beat the Diamondbacks in a 1 game playoff with Billingsly pitching just because the DBs have 3 viabale starters compared to the Dodgers (who do have Kuroda though).  On a personal level, I'd love to see the Mets make it and then play the Phillies in the NLCS, but I'd much prefer the advantage of missing the other team's best starter and having an easier road to the second round.