Breakdown of the Phillies Playoff Push

by WholeCamels on Sep 24, 2008 12:11 PM EDT

So last night's small tragedy - Phils lose, Mets and Brewers win - has tightened things up somewhat.

Remaining schedules for all teams (all home games):

PHI: 1 vs. Atlanta, 3 vs. Washington

NYM: 2 vs Chicago, 3 vs. Florida

MIL: 2 vs. Pittsburgh, 3 vs. Chicago

IF Phillies go 4-0:

Win division outright, first round home field advantage vs. NL West champion or Wild Card Milwaukee Brewers.

IF Phillies go 3-1:

Clinch playoff spot; Mets take division (on regular season record tiebreaker) if they go 5-0 in remaining games, and Phillies play Cubs in first round.

IF Phillies go 2-2:

Mets win division outright with 5-0 or 4-1 finish. Three way tie for all three teams if Mets go 4-1 and Brewers go 5-0 (NL East regular season tiebreaker favoring the Mets tiebreaker only comes into play if both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot). One game playoff between Mets and Phillies for NL East title (in Philadelphia), and loser plays Milwaukee for one game to determine Wild Card.

Phillies clinch playoff berth with one Milwaukee loss.

IF Phillies go 1-3:

Mets win division outright with 5-0, 4-1, or 3-2 finish (barring three-way tie with Milwaukee). Three way tie scenario if Mets go 3-2 and Brewers go 4-1. Milwaukee claims Wild Card with 5-0 finish; tie Phillies with 4-1 finish, one game playoff in Philadelphia.

IF Phillies go 0-4:

Mets win division outright with 5-0, 4-1, 3-2, or 2-3 finish (barring three-way tie with Milwaukee). Three way tie scenario if Mets go 2-3 and Brewers go 3-2. Milwaukee claims Wild Card with 5-0 or 4-1 finish; tie Phillies with 3-2 finish, one game playoff in Philadelphia.

Clearly the scenarios above strongly favor the Phillies, but a final week collapse is far from impossible (Cleveland Indians in 2005 - 1-6 over final seven games, lost playoff spot; New York Mets in 2007). Also important to keep in mind -- while both Milwaukee and New York have multiple games remaining against Chicago, it's a Cubs team more interested in preparing for the playoffs than winning baseball games (having clinched best record/ homefield advantage). Expect them to be playing to win, but at something less than full strength.

SIMPLE SOLUTION: Just win baseball games.

Tweet Comment 4 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I have been trying to avoid the Phillies blogs the last few days because all of the talk about what it will take to make the playoffs is making me too nervous/sick.

Sure, the odds are heavily in our favor, but I can’t help thinking about what a nightmare it would be if we somehow managed to screw up and it gives me this horrible feeling in my gut.

A (convincing) victory tonight would go a long way towards settling me down. Another loss that resembles the shitty at bat parade of last night will have me very very worried.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 24, 2008 12:44 PM EDT reply actions

the players better not be sitting back thinking the Mets are just gonna throw it away again; i must admit all of these situational things are making my brain spin

JUST WIN!

by pjnc2003 on Sep 24, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions

You wrote, “(NL East tiebreaker only comes into play if both teams are guaranteed a playoff spot)”.

That is not correct. If both teams end the season with identifcal records, and both are in the playoffs as a result of the wild card, the Mets are the division champions by virtue of a better head-to-head record, and the Phillies take the wild card spot.

The only way a Mets-Phillies playoff game will occur for the division title is if the Mets, Phillies, and Brewers all finish the season with the same record, or the Brewers somehow win the wild card. In the fomer case, there are 2 playoff spots available to 3 teams. Then, the Phillies will host the Mets to decide the division champion, the winner getting the first spot in the playoffs, and the loser would host the Brewers to decide who takes the wild card spot. The later case is self explanatory.

See… http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080919&content_id=3508594&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

by Squonk64 on Sep 24, 2008 2:51 PM EDT reply actions