Conditional Playoff Odds Through Wednesday
As yesterday, I am calculating our odds making the playoffs, including several other timing issues. I'm assuming that there are no rainouts in the next few days, which may or may not be a reasonable assumption, but let's go with it. I'm sure as hell not doing conditional odds counting meteorological odds too! I'm also assuming that all three teams have 70% chance of beating any non-Cubs teams and 60% chance of beating the Cubs.
Making Playoffs At All: 95.7%
Divison Winners: 80.0%
Odds after Thursday if:
Brewers & Mets win: 92.7%
Brewers win, Mets lose: 97.4%
Brewers lose, Mets win: 97.8%
Brewers & Mets lose: 99.0%
Clinching on:
Friday: 15.8%
Saturday: 50.6%
Sunday: 24.2%
Monday: 4.0%
Tuesday: 1.1%
Eliminated on:
Sunday: 1.44%
Monday: 1.76%
Tuesday: 1.11%
On Friday:
Magic#3: 42%
Magic#2: 58%
On Saturday:
Magic#3: 5.3%
Magic#2: 30.3%
Magic#1: 48.6%
Clinched: 15.8%
Eliminated: 0.0%
On Sunday:
Magic#3: 0.7%
Magic#2: 7.1%
Magic#1: 25.8%
Clinched: 66.4%
Eliminated: 0.0%
Two-way tie Monday: 7.94%
Three-way tie Monady: 4.40%
Eliminated Monday: 3.97%
Eliminated Tuesday: 1.10%
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