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Conditional Playoff Odds Through Wednesday

As yesterday, I am calculating our odds making the playoffs, including several other timing issues.  I'm assuming that there are no rainouts in the next few days, which may or may not be a reasonable assumption, but let's go with it.  I'm sure as hell not doing conditional odds counting meteorological odds too!  I'm also assuming that all three teams have 70% chance of beating any non-Cubs teams and 60% chance of beating the Cubs.

 

Making Playoffs At All: 95.7%

Divison Winners: 80.0%

 

Odds after Thursday if:
Brewers & Mets win: 92.7%

Brewers win, Mets lose: 97.4%

Brewers lose, Mets win: 97.8%

Brewers & Mets lose: 99.0%

 

Clinching on:

Friday: 15.8%

Saturday: 50.6%

Sunday: 24.2%

Monday: 4.0%

Tuesday: 1.1%

 

Eliminated on:

Sunday: 1.44%

Monday: 1.76%

Tuesday: 1.11%

 

On Friday:

Magic#3: 42%

Magic#2: 58%

 

On Saturday:

Magic#3: 5.3%

Magic#2: 30.3%

Magic#1: 48.6%

Clinched: 15.8%

Eliminated: 0.0%

 

On Sunday:

Magic#3: 0.7%

Magic#2: 7.1%

Magic#1: 25.8%

Clinched: 66.4%

Eliminated: 0.0%

 

Two-way tie Monday: 7.94%

Three-way tie Monady: 4.40%

Eliminated Monday: 3.97%

Eliminated Tuesday: 1.10%

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