Conditional Playoff Odds Through Thursday
by Matt Swartz on Sep 26, 2008 12:05 AM EDT
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Same assumptions (70% Phils>Nats, 70% Mets>Marlins, 60% Brewers>Cubs)...updated odds after tonight's games.
Playoffs: 92.7%
Division: 83.0%
Wild Card: 9.7%
If Phils go...
3-0: 100%
2-1: 98.1%
1-2: 75.7%
0-3: 30.4%
Through Friday if....
Phils Win, Mets Win, Brewers Win: 94.4%
Phils Win, Mets Win, Brewers Lose: 98.9%
Phils Win, Mets Lose, Brewers Win: 98.7%
Phils Win, Mets Lose, Brewers Lose: 99.6%
Phils Lose, Mets Win, Brewers Win: 72.3%
Phils Lose, Mets Win, Brewers Lose: 89.6%
Phils Lose, Mets Lose, Brewers Win: 88.0%
Phils Lose, Mets Lose, Brewers Lose: 94.4%
| After Friday… | |
| Magic#3 | 12.6 |
| Magic#2 | 46.8 |
| Magic#1 | 40.6 |
| Clinch | |
| After Saturday | |
| Magic#3 | 1.5876 |
| Magic#2 | 12.7008 |
| Magic#1 | 35.46 |
| Clinch | 50.2516 |
| After Sunday | |
| Out | 2.77195 |
| In | 84.67195 |
| 2-way tie | 5.541178 |
| 3-way tie | 7.014924 |
| After Monday | |
| Just In | 6.278051 |
| Just Out | 2.770589 |
| WC-tie | 3.507462 |
| After Tuesday | |
| Just In | 1.753731 |
| Just Out | 1.753731 |
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