THE MVP "DEBATE"

I’m a huge Ryan Howard fan— probably my favorite player. But I have to be realistic. I definitely advocate looking more into the numbers— that’s pretty much my thing. But you’re looking at old statistics. There are new ways to measure what you’re talking about— how much does he add to a team’s run production. Based on AVG/OBP/SLG, you can actually figure this out with remarkable precision. BaseballProspectus.com has a statistic called VORP which measures “value over replacement player” in terms of how many runs he creates compared to the average backup at his position. Pujols’ crucial stats are .357/.462/.649. Howard’s are .250/.338/.544. The difference is that Pujols adds 94.9 runs per game. Howard adds 34.6— that’s 6 games in a season. That’s not even close.

You talk about getting hits at the right times, but there’s actually a stat out there that tries to measure just this, called WPA (Win Percentage Added). Each play of each game, they get historical winning percentages of teams at the point in the game (i.e. Bottom of the first, Tie Game, None On, No Out = 55). They compare it before and after the player batted. Pujols has 6.26 WPA or 626. Howard has 2.11 or 211%.

Unfortunately, Howard just doesn’t deserve the MVP as much as I want him to.

From AJ Mass on Espn.com and a breath of fresh air

They say it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Ryan Howard would most certainly agree with that statement.

Friday night, Howard hit his major league best 48th home run of the season and added an RBI double as the Phillies all but wrapped up their second straight division title. The four RBIs marked the seventh time this season that Howard has driven in at least that many in a game, and he leads the league in that category as well, with 146.

Since the start of September, there hasn’t been a greater offensive force than Howard. He has 11 home runs this month, more than any other player in the game. He has 32 runs batted in, also a league best. But what is more remarkable is that Howard, a .250 hitter for the season, has a September batting average of .349. Howard has certainly come a long way since his abysmal April, in which he hit .172 with only five home runs and 12 RBIs.

Sure, Carlos Delgado (.356, 8 HR, 21 RBIs) and Manny Ramirez (.380, 8 HR, 28 RBIs) have also been clutch down the stretch. But the Dodgers wrapped up their divisional crown early and Manny came to the party late. Meanwhile, the Mets are on the verge of missing out on the postseason yet again. Sorry guys, you’re both out.

Then there’s Albert Pujols. Certainly, he has had another brilliant season. I mean, how can you argue with a .357 batting average, 36 home runs and 114 RBIs? Hey, from a fantasy standpoint, feel free to give him the trophy. But the Cardinals were never seriously in the pennant race and the award isn’t supposed to go to the “best” player. It’s supposed to go to the most “valuable” player.

When you look at how Howard has finished the season, with every single game having exponentially increasing importance, and see that for September he has a batting average 28 points higher than Pujols, four more home runs, seven more RBIs, a slugging percentage 201 points higher … there’s really only one conclusion you can draw. We’re not disrespecting Albert Pujols; he is indeed a great player. Which is why Ryan Howard should get the MVP. Because when it counted the most, he was that much better than Pujols

schrifty, i thought you actually wanted to discuss value rather than be a homerun. the whole point i was trying to make is that VORP and WPA are the non-meaningless numbers that you seek. you talk about “pretty” numbers. those aren’t pretty. they are geeky, computer numbers— calculating exactly what you want to measure— how much value did the player actually add to the team. games in september count just as much as games in april in those stats…and that’s okay. after all, wins count the same in april as september too. yes, september games turn out to be higher leverage than april games for some teams, and less so for other teams (e.g. the nationals), but each counts the same and playing the season in reverse order would have the same outcome.

VORP and WPA are great ways of measuring contribution. they are not pretty. they are grinded out ways to figure out how you actually score runs. When Rollins reaches on an error, Werth strikes out, Utley doubles him to third, Howard knocks in Rollins on a groundout, and Burrell flies out to end the inning, your R and RBI are meaningless. The main reason that run scored is Utley hitting the double. VORP and WPA will credit Utley. R and RBI will credit Rollins and Howard.

You are dead right the AVG and K are not very useful stats. There is little that AVG measures that is not already captured in OBP. But the statistical correlation between OBP and winning baseball games is higher than any other number you mention. RBI is mostly a function of batting order, OBP of guys in front of you, and SLG. Building a team based on RBI is fleeting. If you sign a guy who batted cleanup for another team and put him in your 7-hole, he’s not going to knock in as many runs. Look at Burrell’s RBI numbers— way down until Howard started getting on base. Even though he has hit worse this half, his RBI numbers have not been so bad— because his hits happened to come when runners were on more often. That’s Howard improving, not Burrell.

Pujols has 43 doubles to Howard’s 26. He has 103 walks to Howard’s 82. That matters. The walk and the double are the most underrated stats by typical AVG/HR/RBI/R. A walk is nearly as good as a single and a double is nearly as good as a homerun. Pujols has had a better year than Howard. This isn’t 2006 when it was arguable that they were very close ignoring defense. This is a year when Howard has made 4 outs for every 6 times he came up. Pujols barely made 3 outs for every 6 times he came up. That one out every six plate appearances matters in a game where you only get 27 outs to outscore your opponents. Not making outs is where it’s at. You can’t argue hollow numbers saying “maybe this is meaningless, maybe that is meaningless”. do the math. or trust the people that did, and the people that checked them.

Ha. I am doing the math! What you failed to mention as I did was total extra base hits were 1 apart. A double is not the same as a homerun. Last time I checked, no one has ever hit a walkoff double with no one on base for a big win. Homerun is a run. If you read what I wrote, I do not discredit Pujols high BA or OBP, I am just saying he has not done more with those numbers than Howard has with his lower numbers. As far as your Burrell argument, are you just making up statistics?? Burrell’s RBI numbers came when he was hitting homeruns at a high rate. He has been striking up and popping out ever since Howard has been hot. Also, you make it seem like HOward got most of his RBI by grounding out with a runner on 3rd?!? VORP is a ridiculous, meaningless stat for mathematicians who do not know about the game of baseball. To say with any sort of definitive that if a backup 1st baseman had played this year rather than Ryan Howard the Phillies would have won only 6 less games is possibly the most ludicrous thing I have read in weeks.

It’s very interesting how you keep taking shots at me for stating my opinions on this. I was pretty sure that stating opinion and love for the Phillies was exactly what made people belong here. How dare you say that I am not open minded or smart. You do not know me and I am merely stating my opinion on one thing. Who made you in charge of what opinions are wrong or right? I never said there is a planet math and a planet baseball. My personal opinion, which I have every right to state is that VORP is ridiculous. I am not punishing Pujols for walking, I am saying that with his higher OBP his numbers should be even greater than they are and that he does not deserve to be MVP of a losing team. You stated that a double is nearly as good as a homerun and I disagreed with you. You are making your points and I am making mine. We are doing something called debating. There is no need to say who belongs and who does not. I am disappointed that someone who apparently thinks they are so very intelligent can be such a conceited moron.

My sympathies tend toward Matt’s side of this argument, simply because Pujols’ performance this year has been “better” than Howard’s by any rigorous measure. To put it another way, the reason why Ryan Howard might seem more “valuable”—a subjective standard for which everyone, certainly every BBWAA voter, sets his own definition—is because Chase Utley, Jayson Werth, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Brad Lidge et al did more to contextualize Howard’s performance than Ryan Ludwick, Yadier Molina, Kyle Lohse, Jason Isringhausen et al did to set up Pujols.

But that isn’t to say schrifty doesn’t have a case. Howard’s performance on that spotlighted stage has been huge; replace his play in September with his season averages (much less what he did in, say, April), and the Phillies are playing out the string this weekend. Probably one could even quantify this, by adding some “leverage” measure to September games when the player’s team is in close contention for a playoff spot. (I don’t know specifically how BP assigns leverage for its stat, but I assume you could come up with a similar methodology.)

In either case, let’s keep the personal attacks to a bare minimum.

Pujols deserves it more. He had the better season.
That being said, I hope Howard wins it.