Playoff Rotation

by jonk on Sep 28, 2008 1:15 AM EDT

I think the short 5 game series in the first round puts extra emphasis on your top starters. It is possible to have two excellent pitchers start 4 of the 5 games (with only one going on short rest). The Phils are in a good situation to take advantage of that. I had talked about this earlier, but I am actually changing how I'd pitch my starters.

Myers: Wed Sept 24th
Hamels: Tues Sept 23rd
Moyer: Sat Sept 27th

Gm 1	Wed	Oct. 1	Myers	6 days
Gm 2	Thu	Oct. 2	Hamels	8 days
Gm 3	Sat	Oct. 4	Moyer	6 days
Gm 4*	Sun	Oct. 5	Myers	3 days
Gm 5*	Tue	Oct. 7	Hamels	4 days

I'd throw Myers out there for game 1 and have him pitch on short rest instead of Blanton (assuming he was successful). Going on that Myers last two games were a blip and that he was successful on short rest before, I think this would be our best pitching roatation. He'll have an extra 2 days of rest prior to game one, and this allows us to pitch Hamels in game 5 on normal rest or even start the next series if we win it before 5.

To me, this looks like the best possible way the Phils could manage their post season staff. If Myers blows up in game 1, then by all means, use Blanton if we get to game 4. However, leave yourself the option if Myers pitches lights out.

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I like the idea except that I’m a little hesitant to risk Myers pitching on three days rest. He got lit up after pitching a shutout on three days rest the last two times since, and I worried that even if he did okay in that situation, he might get torched for the rest of the playoffs afterwards. I also like the idea of Myers getting as much rest as possible and Hamels not having too much rest. Still, I’d be fine with this strategy.

by Matt Swartz on Sep 28, 2008 1:51 AM EDT reply actions

For a numbers guy, I am surprised you think the two are correlated. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. Maybe it is the 3 days rest, but maybe it is something completely different. I’d much rather Myers pitch on short ret than Hamels as Hamels is the much better commodity and Myers is 4 years older.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Sep 28, 2008 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd rather win the game

It’s true, we cannot know whether Myers’ two bad outings were caused by his pitching on short rest in his previous start. But that doesn’t mean that there is no causal relationship.

Lacking better information, I think it would be prudent to avoid pitching Myers on short rest for the near future. If needed, he can start Game 7 of the World Series on three days’ rest.

by phatj on Sep 28, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions

Let’s not be obnoxious here. It’s all well and good to trot out post hoc ergo propter hoc when the burden of proof is on the other guy’s side. But to prove your point, it’s not enough for you to show that Myers shouldn’t be disqualified from pitching on short rest. You have to actively prove that he should pitch on short rest.

The fact is that even the small amount of evidence that MattS has to show that Myers might be negatively affected by pitching on short rest outweighs the zero evidence you have to show that Myers will not be affected by short rest. Add to that the fact that Joe Blanton, while no ace, is a perfectly credible alternative who would be pitching on long rest, and I think it’s pretty clear that MattS has the better end of this argument.

Of course all this is moot since Hamels will be pitching Game 1 anyway.

by taco pal on Sep 28, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I completely agree. I’ve been saying the same thing for the past week on the espn conversations.

Another reason to set up the rotation this way: Cole Hamels would be going against the opposing team’s best pitchers. Milwaukee is pitching CC Sunday and would almost certainly have him pitch on short rest in game 2. Joe Torre announced that Lowe will pitch game 1 and Billingsley will be the game 2 starter.

by yosoysean on Sep 28, 2008 4:16 AM EDT reply actions