The Stretch Story, or How the Phillies Won the NL East and the Mets Blew It . . . Again

by David S. Cohen on Sep 29, 2008 3:51 PM EDT Comment 5 comments

After the games of September 10, the Phillies sat 3.5 games out of first place in the NL East. They were 79-67 and had gone just 6-8 since their dramatic come-from-behind extra-innings win against the Mets on August 26. (So much for momentum.)

The Mets, on the other hand, were 82-63. They were sitting pretty - 3.5 games above the Phillies. They had shaken off that horrible game and had gone 9-3 since August 26. They vowed not to let 2007 repeat.

But, they did. Over the course of the next 17 games (16 for the Phillies), the Mets once again collapsed. They went from 3.5 games up on the Phils to 3 games down. It wasn't as bad as last year's collapse of 8 games in the standings (Mets had been 7 games up but finished 1 game down), but a 6.5 game swing over the last two-and-a-half weeks of the season is nonetheless quite horrific.

So how did it happen? Beyond just the fact that the Phillies closed 13-3 while the Mets closed 7-10?

It's quite simple: The Phillies outperformed the Mets in every facet of the game. But, in particular, the Phillies' bullpen was dominant, whereas the Mets' bullpen was miserable.

Offensively, the Phillies averaged 5.75 runs over the last 16 games. The Mets averaged 4.41. The Phillies hit .277/.357/.495 for a .852 OPS over the last 16 games. The Mets hit .253/.341/.412 for a .753 OPS. In other words, the Phillies were Nate McLouth or Jack Cust over the last 16 games; the Mets were Brandon Phillips.

The starting pitching was the one area that was close, although the Phillies still outperformed the Mets. The Phillies' starters held their opponents to a .246/.305/.412 line while the Mets' starters held their opponents to .268/.346/.360 line. That's quite comparable except for the middle number -- the Mets' starters had a lot more men on base compared to the Phillies' starters. Even though the Phillies' starters gave up more extra base hits, without as many men on base, the damage was limited.

As any Mets fan will tell you, the bullpen was the real problem. And the numbers bear this out. The Phillies bullpen, lead by Brad Lidge, was dominant over the last 16 games. It held its opponents to an incredible .648 OPS -- .234/.311/.337. The Mets' bullpen, on the other hand, allowed their opponents to hit like David Wright and his .924 OPS. The cobbled together replacements for Billy Wagner allowed opponents a .335/.400/.524 line. There's your answer.

Winning the NL East two years in a row is a wonderful pleasure for a Phillies fan. To do so while watching the Mets collapse two years in a row -- by 8 games last year and 6.5 games this year -- tops off the pleasure with a tasty scoop of schadenfreude. What could be better?

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I’m honestly surprised that the Mets fell short, for a reason you refer to at the beginning of this piece: they shook off the 8-7 loss to the Phils and got hot afterward, as they did all year.

In a weird funhouse way, the 2008 Mets reminded me a great deal of the 2007 Phillies—who also suffered from an at-times brutal bullpen that led to some excruciating late game losses, and who almost always seemed to rebound from those devastating defeats by winning five out of the next seven. That this year’s Mets finished with 89 wins, same as last year’s Phils, sort of completes the picture. But while the Phillies got great relief in September once Myers, Gordon and Romero were all in place, the Mets never figured out how to set up their bullpen—and had the surreal emergence of Bobby Parnell, a rookie coming off a lousy season in the minors, and uber-journeyman Brian Stokes as their two high-leverage setup guys at the end.

Strange stuff.

by dajafi on Sep 29, 2008 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Momentum

It just doesn’t exist. If there’s ever proof needed, just look at the aftermath of that August 26 game, as well as the aftermath of the aftermath of that game.

by David S. Cohen on Sep 29, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember you once made this point after the Phillies somehow failed to reel off 12 straight wins after Aaron Rowand kissed that unpadded outfield wall against the Mets in May ’06.

There’s some element within the Phillies-Mets rivalry that seems driven to repeatedly illustrate this.

by dajafi on Sep 29, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

schadenfreude

What could be better than the Phils winning two in a row while The Mets tank twice in a row? How about the Yankees being out of it while Tampa Bay wins the AL East… Nah, that’s asking waaaay too much.

by Putsy Caballero. on Sep 29, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Winning It

I liked your analysis of the last part of the season. I especially noticed the point about the pitching being the real difference compared to the Mets. I think we sometimes fail to appreciate how much better the Phillies pitching was this entire season. The total runs allowed decreased by 141, or nearly a run a game. Combined with a solid offense, holding the opposition to a little over four runs a game accounts for the biggest reason for their success this year, in my opinion.
The oft-maligned starting rotation ended up with the second most quality starts in the NL. I don’t have the team starters’ ERA in front of me, but the fact that in more than half the games they got through six innings allowing only three or fewer (earned) runs kept them in nearly every game this season. And, what more could we have looked for in a bullpen, with Brad Lidge finishing up perfect, no games lost when leading after eight innings, and the number one NL bullpen on fewest blown saves and highest save percentage. I just ran the team ERA numbers and – no surprise – the top four teams in ERA are the four that made the playoffs. The Phillies, number 4, are a bare 0.03 behind the second place Brewers. (Dodgers were #1.) For a team that year after year struggled to even break into the upper half on team ERA, it’s pretty amazing to see Philadelphia so close to the top.
It seems like every year it’s pointed out that pitching wins championships. This year, for a change, the Phillies might have enough pitching to seriously challenge.

by phillyinportland on Sep 29, 2008 9:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs