Sifting through the ashes - Phillies vs. Mets recap

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2008 11:59 AM EDT

Normally taking 2 of 3 from your division rival on their turf would be cause for celebration (or at the very least, marked approval), but at this point in the season, and their places in the standings, it's just not enough.

Brett Myers continued his surprising and very welcome run of Cy Young-quality pitching and Jamie Moyer rebounded from a horrendous start against the Mets a couple weeks ago to post two of the very best pitched games of the season for the Phillies. Hopes were high for last night, with Cole Hamels taking the hill. Sadly, and for whatever reason, it wasn't to be. Everyone deserves a clunker once in awhile, Cole's just came at a bad time, and versus the best pitcher on the planet. And it doesn't help that Hamels was done in by some bad calls (the tag of Wright at third) and sloppy play by his teammates (catcher's interference, Utley missing the force at second). Yes, he could have gotten a little help from his teammates, but Cole himself served up those cookies to Delgado. You can't spread that blame around.

At this point in the season the team's schedules are very similar (home and away series against divisional also-rans, and a four-game series at home versus playoff favorites Chicago (NY) and Milwaukee (PHI). A great deal is going to depend on how each team handles its own NL Central contender series. However, while the Brewers continued tanking might be good for the Phillies vis-a-vis the Wild Card, it would probably allow the Cubs to rest their regulars and front-line starting pitchers as the division will basically be wrapped up by the time the Mets play the Cubs later this month.

It'll be tough, but as we saw last season, not impossible. Take care of business against Milwaukee and the wild card is a real possibility.

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I was there last night. WC has it right here—Cole’s body language was bad from the catchers-interference call (which I didn’t see; a foul ball was hit right by us, and when I turned back around, Wright was on first) onwards. He could do nothing against Delgado, and the Phils didn’t have awful at-bats against Santana but couldn’t really catch a break against him (hard-hit balls right at defenders, etc) either.

But I’m reasonably confident. The Mets are a better team than a year ago—more resilient, and with the devastating, team-carrying bat in Delgado that they didn’t have then—but they can be had.

—They’re down to three mostly reliable starters (Santana, Pelfrey, Perez), just like the Phils.

—Their bullpen has been untouchable for about a week (23 scoreless innings), which won’t last, and Wagner is probably gone for the year—a big psychological blow.

—Reyes, Wright and Beltran are off their games right now, though that obviously could turn around on a dime.

For their part, the Phils now have hot bats from Rollins and Howard—who looked fantastic last night even when he was making outs. They desperately need Burrell to get hot one more time, but the depth provided by the callups and late adds (Stairs, Iguchi) makes this a very dangerous offense—at last. And the bullpen got a relatively light weekend of work: Madson, Romero, Eyre and Lidge all pitched just one game each over the weekend, and Durbin none. If those five guys are fresh and effective (a big if in Durbin’s case, even with the rest—I think he’s just fried), they’ll be tough for the stretch.

If the Mets do hold on, their MVPs are Delgado and Perez. Those two guys were ALL the difference in the 11-7 record they put up against the Phillies this season, and it’s hard to imagine that the Mets could win the East by a larger margin than what those games meant.

by dajafi on Sep 8, 2008 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

I was going to say it feels like a 1-in-4 chance for the Phils to make the postseason, and the Baseball Prospectus Postseason Odds bear that out — 22% they win the division, 5% for the Wild Card.

It’s 1. Possible (but unlikely); 2. Better odds than last year at this time; and 3. Worth hoping for. The season’s not dead yet.

Check in with me on Friday, though. We should know a LOT more by then.

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Apparently, Hamels is being bashed on WIP today for being “soft.”

It was a disappointing finish, but a two-game deficit is far from insurmountable even with the schedules. Just win, baby.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2008 12:54 PM EDT reply actions

"soft"

Not surprising. That station and its fans would cut off their noses to spite their whole friggin’ heads.

by WholeCamels on Sep 8, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Angelo Cataldi is such a charlatan and I think everyone perceives it deep down, but very few people seem to care because they get so much enjoyment from being led by the nose into unreasoning, foaming rages. This is a guy who isn’t from the area and doesn’t really root for any of the local teams, but found that he could make a lucrative career out of posing as Mr. Philly Super Fan and manipulating the peculiar anxieties and emotions of the local culture. The guy is a professional mob inciter who doesn’t even believe in the aims of the mob – he’s just doing it for his own amusement. And he’s actually a very intelligent, educated guy who has to know full well what he’s doing. Just a deeply cynical person.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Funny how Hamels is “soft” yet somehow he manages to lead the NL in IP. Some people just aren’t entitled to a bad outing I guess. Amazing how quickly people will forget Hamels’ pivotal 8 inning, 13K, scoreless performance in the 3rd to last game of the season last year (coming off of an injury to boot!).

So the countdown until Rollins is driven out of town by the idiot Philly sports media started a few weeks ago and it appears as if the same process for Hamels has just begun. I knew there was a good reason that 610 is banned from all of my AM dials.

by FuquaManuel on Sep 8, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Pitching Order

I wonder if Hamels is ill-served by going immediately after Moyer. Maybe the opposing team gets used to hitting change-ups? I realize Hamels change-up is pretty different from Moyer’s change-up, but still. It seems to me that it would make more sense to go Myers, Moyer, Blanton, Hamels (or something along those lines).

On a related note, wouldn’t it make more sense to pitch Happ on Wednesday and save Myers for Thursday vs. the Brewers? As long as you’ve got to pitch Happ on one of those days, you might as well do it against the team that we’re not chasing. Both teams’ lineups are pretty righty-dominated.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2008 2:44 PM EDT reply actions

I’d try to make sure Myers gets the Brewers. Those games are the most important left now.

by dajafi on Sep 8, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe I noticed something along those lines a few times last year when I think the order was more like Hamels then Moyer – I don’t think they pitched back-to-back in the same series very often but I did feel that seeing one offspeed pitcher followed by another took away some of the element of surprise. That’s probably more important for Moyer than for Hamels. Last night, it seemed like Hamels kept getting hurt by Delgado on the offspeed pitches he relies on so much – and the three at-bats earlier against Moyer might have helped Delgado gear up for the slower stuff.
I agree that it would be better to keep them out of the same series but there’s no way they won’t both pitch against Milwaukee and probably at least once more in the same series before the end of the season. I also like the idea of saving Myers for Thursday give our best shot vs. the Brewers.

by phillyinportland on Sep 8, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Only thing about that—and I didn’t realize this when I made my post earlier—is that it’s Nolasco for the Marlins on Wednesday. He’s damn good. We might need Myers to win a low-scoring game.

by dajafi on Sep 8, 2008 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions

He is – but we have Ben Sheets the following night, so it’s kind of a pick-your-poison situation. (It looks, incidentally, like we’re going to miss Sabathia.)

At least we got to Nolasco a little last time we faced him. But yeah he’s solid, and on a hot streak to boot: 2.03 ERA in his last five starts.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Tentative Matchups

Thursday: Myers/Happ vs. Sheets (13-7, 2.82)
Friday: Moyer vs. Manny Parra (10-7, 4.03)
Saturday: Hamels vs. Dave Bush (9-10, 4.23)
Sunday: Blanton vs. Jeff Suppan (10-8, 4.56)

Can’t believe the Brewers lost tonight, by the way.

by taco pal on Sep 8, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions