Yikes: Howard asks for $18 million
by dajafi on Jan 20, 2009 4:44 PM EST
30 comments
NEW YORK -- Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard has asked for $18 million in salary arbitration, the third-highest figure submitted since the process began in 1974.
Philadelphia offered him $14 million, a raise of $4 million.
Houston's Roger Clemens set the record for highest request in arbitration at $22 million in 2005. Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is second at $18.5 million in 2001.
We've been over this Howard thing again and again here. Ultimately the questions for both this contract and his possible long-term future as a Phillie are how reasonable he's willing to be, and how accommodating the team chooses to be. Howard wants to be paid like Alex Rodriguez and (soon enough) Albert Pujols, but his aspiration doesn't acknowledge that he, unlike both of them, has significant flaws. And the team, like it or not, operates within a budget and has other needs. Under certain circumstances, they probably would fear a P.R. hit by battling Howard and agent Casey Close, but coming off a world championship and having the rest of their stars happily under contract probably defuses that concern.
It's not very satisfying, but I think the right answer here is to continue down the present path of muddling through year by year with Howard until he reaches free agency and gets the payoff he wants, and then hope like hell you can come somewhat close to reproducing his unmatched power production. The alternative of every off-season is to trade him, but that option becomes less viable as his rising demands price virtually every non-New York/Boston/Los Angeles destination out of the market for his services.
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who wins this?
its a close one but i think howard wins again
There is no way he gets 18 million. Consider that his OPS dropped by almost .100, his first half struggles, his defensive ineptitude, and the fact that Pujols makes 14 million and I don’t see him getting what he wants. How can he perform significantly worse than he did last year and expect to get $8 million more? Gimme a break.
If they factor in the fact that last year was a down year for him and he should regress back towards his 2007 production, then he has a great chance of getting it.
why should he regress towards 2007? ANd if it’s an improvement is it really called ‘regression’? (Just a question)
by jemagee on Jan 21, 2009 7:20 PM EST up reply actions
No OPS+
Unfortunately, in the arbitration process, I’m afraid home runs and RBI still rule the day for power hitters.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?
2nd in MVP voting and playoff wins probably matter too :)
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not opposed to this idea – would matt cain be enough for you?
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not so sure about this
I’m not so sure that arbitration processes are dominated by HR and RBI. From what I’ve read, they’re fairly sophisticated hearings using complex stats, not the dribble that sports writers are forced to write about and vote based upon. I would think any agent/lawyer worth his salt (whether for the team or the player) will be well versed in OPS+, VORP, WARP, DIPS, etc. Anything to make his client’s case better will be on the table.
by David S. Cohen on Jan 20, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
My bad – sorry about that – read something on a text message wrong
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 5:32 PM EST reply actions
If things like RBIs and HRs count then errors and strikeouts should count against him right?
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 5:47 PM EST reply actions
If he performed significantly worse than he did last year why would the phillies offer him a 40% pay raise?
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions
because they know they’ll get their teeth kicked in by an arbitrator whose pants get all frothy when he sees the HR and RBI totals.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?
Does anyone know where an impartial explanation of the arbitration process exists?
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
paul depo
paul depodesta actually just talked about this on his blog.
http://itmightbedangerous.blogspot.com/2009/01/heath-bell-and-arbitration.html
he doesn’t specifically get into what specific arbitrators value though (hr/rbi vs. OPS+).
Unfortunately (and I wonder if DePo ever even had one) what I’m looking for is more ’what’s relevant’ in the arbitration process – some examples – there’s a lot of assumption that the arbitrators are ‘morons’ it seems – I expect the information I want is a closely guarded secret by all parties involved.
But big ups to DePo for even having that blog up there – i like the idea
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
Though he wrote this
David is a true grinder who is a very tough out and does all the little things well – a great example for our younger players.
about eckstein – which sounds like team doublespeak to me
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
what WC said
and also because that’s how the system works. Probably someone smarter than me could figure out a formula to measure the relative weights of service time, most-recent performance, career performance to date and future expected performance as inputs into compensation. But in Howard’s case, the big factor is that he’s moving closer to free agency, and that more than makes up for any dropoff in performance from ’07 to ’08.
Actually, he can argue, correctly, that he played the best when they needed him the most. If it worked with the MVP voters, at least enough for him to finish second, it might work with the arbitration judge.
I would hope the arbitration judges have slightly more common sense and brain capacity than the BBRAA
by jemagee on Jan 20, 2009 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
Blanton signed a one year deal.
Its worth $5.475 million.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20090120_Phils_sign_Victorino_to_one-year_deal.html
Blanton could play first on off days
There’s more to Howard than this, but you have to admit that Blanton does have similarities to Howard:
1. He’s fat
2. He strikes out a lot
3. When hit hits it, it goes faaaaar.
Ahhh…the playoffs. My DVD set is coming soon (ordered used from Amazon for about $40 plus I had a gift card for $20).
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jan 20, 2009 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Trade him
Adam Dunn plus keeping Burrell would have been more acceptable to me than overpaying Howard. Pat could play a little first with some work — he used to play third at Miami, IIRC. Dunn in left. Too bad that option is out the window.
Greg Vaugn. Mo Vaughn. Cecil Fielder. This will not end well.
Aside from breaking ball PTSD from the playoffs, his OPS+ this year was lower (for the second consecutive year) along with his OBP, SLG and just raw average. It is not just this year, either. He peaked in his second year and has declined each year, for two consecutive years.
Howard for next year at $18M? You’d have been better off paying Burrell to play first for two years and trading Howard for whatever you can get. In my opinion, “whatever you can get” might not be that much. If I’m a GM anywhere with a hole in my pocket, I’m not exactly rushing to buy this problem, either.
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jan 20, 2009 9:37 PM EST reply actions
more stat backup
For arbitration, I’ve heard that estimates on what players get are 40% 1st year/60% 2nd year/80% 3rd year of their free market value. So Howard should be getting about 60 percent of his free market value. (is this a good assumption?)
The Phillies with their 14 million dollar offer, they think Howard is worth 19.6 million/year
Howard with his 18 million dollar suggestion, thinks he’s worth 25.2 million/year
So basically Howard thinks he deserves the 2nd highest contract in league after ARod, who makes 27.5 million/year.
Looking at Fangraph data, here are what the top phillies were “worth” last year:
1. Utley: 35.7 million
2. Rollins: 23.1 million
3. Werth: 21.3 million
4. Hamels: 20.6 million
5. Victarino: 17.0 million
6. Howard: 14.1 million
Howard average defense, position (high replacement level performance), OPS (which went down .100 this year) kept his value low.
Howard has regressed the past three years, and considering his great 2nd half he will hopefully preform better next year. However, the Phils take that into account giving him a “19.6 million/year” deal.
Yes – Howard wants the 2nd “highest” salary in the major leagues, when he was potentially the 6th most valuable Philly last year.
It will be interesting to see what happens if this goes to arbitration. Like we previously asked, do these arbitration judges think like the MVP voters or do they take statistics other than HR and RBI seriously?
I think either way Howard will lose his case.
He's not worth $14 million, either
He’s got a WARP of 5, for crying out loud. 5!
Remember the Phitans
by RememberthePhitans on Jan 21, 2009 6:04 AM EST up reply actions
Actually, $2.8 mil per marginal win sounds about right.
by christonabike on Jan 21, 2009 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
So, by fangraphs...
he should be making around 60% of 14 million or 8.4 million. Last year he was worth 4.2 wins or $17.1 million. So, he should have gotten a $6.85 million dollar deal in arbitration. He was given $10 million. It sounds like the arbitration court is significantly overvaluing Howard – Bad news for the Phils.
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