Looking Ahead, 2010 Free Agency

by Neduol Caz on Jan 22, 2009 1:22 PM EST

So, I know that MLB is still currently residing in the 2009 free agency period, but a blog posting by Todd Zolecki got me thinking about next year. He listed all of the Phillie's salary requirments for this season, and I was amazed by how many players of very little importance are coming off of the books. The list is as follows...

Pitchers

Clay Condrey ($650,000)

Adam Eaton ($9,000,000)

Scott Eyre ($2,000,000)

Brett Myers ($12,000,000)

Chan Ho Park ($2,500,000)

Infielders

Pedro Feliz ($5,000,000)

Outfielders

Geoff Jenkins ($8,000,000)

Matt Stairs ($1,000,000)

Old Friends

Jim Thome ($3,000,000)

When totaled, that is an impressive $43,150,000 coming off of the books after this season. Now, After factoring in raises for Hamels ($2.3M), Madson ($1.5M), Romero ($.25M), Dobbs ($.2M), Rollins ($-.5M), Ibanez ($5M), and Werth ($4M), the Phils come out ahead by $30,300,000. Add in some minor arbitration awards to Blanton, Durbin, Bruntlett, Howard, and Victorino, and the Phillies should have approximately $20-$25 million dollars burning holes in their pockets.

What is even more exciting than having 20 million dollars to spend is the fact that their will be no significant vacancies left by the departing players. Is anybody going to miss Condrey, Eaton, Eyre, Park, Feliz, Jenkins, Stairs, or, ummm, Thome? Yeah, me neither. The only loss that I feel is significant is Myers, but that brings me to my next point, cheap replacements from the Pharm! Happ, Carrasco, and Carpenter should all be ready to assume SP/RP roles by the beginning of 2010. Marson will have hopefully assumed the everyday catching responsibilities in '10 while Donald can man 3rd. And, in the outfield, the Phils will have Taylor, Mayberry Jr., and to a lesser extent, Brown ready to fill the voids left by Stairs and Jenkins.

So, in my opinion, 2010 is looking pretty sweet. Who should the Phillies spend the money on? I have my eye on John Lackey or Rich Harden. Also, one other interesting note. The cream of the 2010 first baseman free agent crop is Carlos Delgado and Adam LaRoche. Perhaps, next offseason might be a good time to move Ryan Howard, and say, pick up Holliday to replace some of Howard's production. Who knows what will happen, but one thing is for sure, the Phillies can be players if they choose to be.

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rubs hands together. licks lips

by FuquaManuel on Jan 22, 2009 1:36 PM EST reply actions

I’d go all-in on John Lackey. He’s a borderline #1 who’d slot in nicely behind Hamels. He’s about as productive as Brett Myers but much less erratic.

I don’t trust Rich Harden to remain healthy, at all.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Jan 22, 2009 1:55 PM EST reply actions

Ah the folly of youth – it’s a joy to behold

by jemagee on Jan 22, 2009 1:59 PM EST reply actions

Care to eplain your comment?

by Neduol Caz on Jan 22, 2009 2:11 PM EST up reply actions

To think the phillies won’t just pocket the savings to write off howard as ‘minor arbitration’…to not take into account the current economic conditions and the possibility that the phillies will make less next season than they did this season so be less inclined to spend.

I think it’s folly to assume the phillies are going to spend all that money

by jemagee on Jan 22, 2009 2:24 PM EST up reply actions

- I never said that the Phillies would not just pocket the money, I said that they could be players if they choose to be. I suppose being synical and making false assumptions is simply the folly of old age.

- If Howard wins his arbitration this year, then he will be making 18 million dollars. He simply cannot ask for much more than 18 million, seeing as the best players in the entire game do not make much more than that when they become free agents, let alone during their third arbitration year. If Howard loses arb this year and earns 14 million, then he will most likely ask for a figure slightly higher than 18 million next year. Either way, it isn’t a big deal. He is the Phillies property for three more seasons.

- I did think of the current economic conditions. The conditions cannot get much worst then they are now, and yet the Phillies have added payroll because of the influx of money a world series championship has brought them. I assume that being the defending world champions, that the Phillies will be slightly more recession proof than most other franchises in the league. Also, you must consider that the economy is going to effect practically every MLB team, and so even if the Phillies are inclined to take on sligthly lessened payroll, so will most of the other 29 teams. Thus, the Phillies may not spend every dime that they have, but those dimes will then be worth the same as quarters, if you know what I mean.

by Neduol Caz on Jan 22, 2009 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

nice rebuttal

however, i still think you are underestimating the arbitration awards for blanton, howard, and victarino. i’m assuming they will all have their salaries increased by 3-5 million each.

Anyway, I would guess they may have an extra 15 million or so?

by dbeach13 on Jan 22, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

basically

however that extra 15 million could basically all go to myers or a myers replacement. i wouldn’t be TOO excited about the finanical situation

by dbeach13 on Jan 22, 2009 7:44 PM EST up reply actions

I remember thinking a year ago that the team wouldn’t change much, other than maybe Burrell leaving, through 2009. It seemed like Gillick was aiming for a lot of money to come off the books after this year, though maybe that’s just how it happened to work out.

I’ve written a few times this winter that I thought we were the beneficiaries of some serious good fortune in 2008. That isn’t likely to repeat, of course, even if you don’t read any karmic balancing into Utley’s injury, Romero’s suspension, etc. Add in the worrying fact that Hamels, Myers, and Blanton all threw more than 3500 pitches last year and it’s not hard to see a rough ride in 2009. The major value of this season could turn out to be getting a better sense of how much Happ, Carrasco, Marson, Donald et al might contribute going forward.

This isn’t to say that the Phils should punt on this season; they’re the defending champions, and the team returns almost intact. But things could look very different in ten months’ time. I’m glad they’ll have some flexibility to address whatever needs are apparent after this year runs its course.

by dajafi on Jan 22, 2009 2:21 PM EST reply actions

+1

starting pitching is the biggest question mark in my mind.

hopefully happ, carrasco, and maybe even kendrick can hold the fort down when one or two of moyer, blanton, myers, and hamels goes out.

by dbeach13 on Jan 22, 2009 7:34 PM EST up reply actions

Keith Law referred to next years free agent class as ‘vomitacious’ (i like made up words)…just the opinion of one guy – but should i be excited about having money for a vomitacious free agent class.

by jemagee on Jan 22, 2009 3:56 PM EST reply actions

It’s not just free agency, it’s the ability to take on money through trades.

by dajafi on Jan 22, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions

The original poster was looking at free agency – plus i like the word vomitacious and wanted to use it IMMEDIATELY :)

Look – my job is getting worse daily – my pay scale is pathetic – and i’m still stuck with a small ass kitchen and just found out that at the age of 36 i really want to cook all the time – give me my small victoria will ya :)

by jemagee on Jan 22, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

I can dig it.

by dajafi on Jan 22, 2009 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Kind of makes the Yankees’ decision to purchase the planet this offseason look pretty smart; at least there was some quality out there.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Jan 22, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

That was actually where vomitacious came up – i didn’t post the whole thing – but someone asked about the yankees ‘finessing’ the compensation system by loading up on all the type A’s this year…

As for the cooking thing – who wouldn’t like a mac and cheese with the cheese sauce using pancetta grease, heavy cream, provoline and mozazrella cheese instead of the normal cheddar (with pancetta in it) topped with a mixture of bread crumbs, paremesan and macadamia nuts

by jemagee on Jan 22, 2009 5:26 PM EST up reply actions

I have mild lactose intolerance, so I know one person who wouldn’t do so hot with that…

The makers of Charmin would thank you, though.

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Jan 22, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions

Ultra Pasteurized cheese (mostly cheese made in america) has no lactose because the ultra pasteurization process (as opposed to normal pasteurization) breaks down almost all enzymes and other htings as well.

Thank you ALton Brown – Good Eats

by jemagee on Jan 22, 2009 6:14 PM EST up reply actions

Baseball or Cheese?

How did we get on the topic of cheese? Anyway, not to keep disagreeing with you jemagee, but I am pretty sure that only young American cheeses use the “ultra pasteurization” process. The large majority of American cheeses (any cheese that is aged for greater than 60 days) may use the standard pasteurization process, aka “raw milk”. Hence, if the cheese is aged over 60 days, which practically all common cheeses are (at least common American cheeses), then they are going to be full of lactose. Sorry to burst your pasteurization bubble. Also, If I am wrong, please let me know as I would be interested in knowing the truth.

by Neduol Caz on Jan 22, 2009 8:13 PM EST reply actions

Hmm...

And when I kept saying American cheeses, I meant cheese produced in the USA, not the specific kind of cheese that is American.

by Neduol Caz on Jan 22, 2009 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

SIGN LEBRON

by char6587 on Jan 23, 2009 4:51 AM EST reply actions

what

http://www.thegoodphight.com
WHY CAN'T US?

by WholeCamels on Jan 23, 2009 8:25 AM EST up reply actions

Stole from LastTrain on scout.com forums

http://forums.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=309&f=2075&t=3809816

"$ gains for 2010: Myers ($12M), Eaton ($8M diff between $8.5M and $500k buyout), Eyre ($2M), Park ($2.5M), Stairs ($1M), Jenkins ($5.5M diff between $6.75M and $1.25M buyout)….total gains equal $31M.

$ losses for 2010: Ruiz and Coste/Paulino each could gain about $500K in their first arby year ($1M), Howard (for now assume another $6M), Utley ($4M), Bruntlett ($200K), Victorino ($1.8M), Werth ($4M), Dobbs (200k), Ibanez ($5M), Hamels ($2.3M), Blanton ($1.5M), #5 starter (Kendrick, Happ, whomever…$100K), Durbin ($500k), Madson ($2.5M), Condrey ($150k)….total minuses equal $29.25M.

That’s a guess of $1.75M to work with to fill the slots of Myers, Stairs, Eyre, Park and Jenkins. Certainly a few of those slots can be filled by minimum salary minor leaguers, but particularly the #2 slot in the rotation could need some help."

I think his estimate is a little more realistic. I don’t see these wealth of money coming free after this year, and if anything it’ll be needed to fill some key slots, such as #2 SP, starting 3B, etc. There are some useful guys coming off the payroll too.

by RodeoJones on Jan 23, 2009 11:20 PM EST reply actions