Three for Your Sleepy Morning: Rollins Getting On-Base, Lidge's "Boost," and Those Dreaded Game Times
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 11:48 AM EDT
52 comments
Anyone else having trouble staying awake this morning? And I can't even claim to have kept my eyes open for all 246 minutes of play last night. I did, however, get to watch the ninth inning. I guess my internal body clock was telling me it was time to watch some exciting baseball. Thankfully, it wasn't wrong.
Anyway, with a much more humane 6:07pm start time tonight, we're less than 7 hours from game time (as opposed to yesterday at this time when we were still 11 hours from game time!). Here are three things to mull over as we wait for another work day to pass:
- How devastating are Jimmy Rollins' horrible on-base skills at the top of the Phillies lineup this post-season? Not so much. Jimmy Rollins' horrible on-base skills were on fine display this season. He had a .287 OBP for the first half of the season, including a .206 OBP in June. He improved that to .306 for the second half, but still finished with just a .296 OBP for the season. That's horrible over the course of 162 games and 725 plate appearances. However, it's just not nearly as bad during the post-season, when the Phillies are, at best, going to play 15 or 16 games and he's only going to see about 65 plate appearances at most. (He had 64 last post-season.) Actually crunching the numbers shows this. If Rollins performs in the post-season the way he did in the regular season, he'll get on base roughly 6 or 7 times per series (assuming 21 plate appearances per series, Rollins' average last post-season). The median OBP for full-time lead-off hitters this year was .355 (Scott Podsednik). Knowledgeable Phillies' fans would drool over a .355 OBP at the top of our lineup. However, with that OBP, Podsednik would get on base just 1 more time per series than Jimmy -- about 7 or 8 times per series. Even Derek Jeter's excellent .409 OBP at the top of the Yankees' lineup would only translate to 1 more time on base per series than Podsednik -- about 8 or 9 times per series. Of course, I'm not saying that it wouldn't be great if Rollins could get on base more reliably, especially with the hitters behind him in this lineup. But, let's not overstate the significance of it in a short series where the difference between a horrible lead-off OBP and a great lead-off OBP will translate to another 2 times on base over the course of 5 or 6 games.
- How much of a "psychological boost" should Brad Lidge's appearance last night have been? Not so much. Everyone's going gaga over Brad Lidge this morning. Charlie Manuel thought he saw something different in Lidge's last three appearances in the regular season. So he used him in a high-leverage save situation last night, and Lidge got the job done. If my half-asleep memory serves me right, the announcers called his appearance a "psychological boost" for him and the team. Yet, what exactly was good about last night's appearance other than the outcome? (And yes, I understand that's a huge "other than.") Lidge didn't throw a first-pitch strike to any batter last night. He walked two. He allowed an easy stolen base. In other words, he was the same Brad Lidge he's been all season in the ninth inning. Except, of course, he didn't allow anyone to score. But, as much as that difference is huge in the outcome, does it make any difference in whether Brad Lidge is "back" and should it instill any kind of confidence in his teammates, his manager, or the fans? Absolutely not.
- How awesome has the timing been for the Phillies' post-season games been so far? Not so much. Yes, this is a bit of a tired subject and fans in Philadelphia get a nice reprieve tonight, albeit still not perfect since MLB clearly doesn't care about family dinner time in Philadelphia or anyone in Colorado for that matter. After all, far be it for MLB to have enough confidence in its product to think that it is actually good enough to compete with Monday Night Football. But, I digress. Check out the end times for the Phillies/Rockies games so far this October (times are local Philadelphia time, subtract 2 hours for Denver time): 5:25pm, 6:18pm, and 2:13am. It's as if MLB thinks that no one in Philadelphia or Denver cares about their baseball teams other than those who go to the games. And that's not even considering the fan-insulting and player-threatening conditions last night's game was played in. I was certainly happy to be watching it from the comfort of my warm bed rather than at the stadium (where MLB fudged the game time temperature up about 7 or 8 degrees to a balmy 35), but then again, that same comfort induced me to doze in and out for the last 6 innings. Luckily, I was able to stay awake for all of the ninth. Of course, now I'm paying for it, as are many other Philadelphians this morning. Do Philadelphia-area employers have a class action lawsuit against MLB for lack of productivity at work today? I think it's a pretty good case for one of our lawyer-readers to consider taking up. Anything to annoy Bud Selig and his band of roving lunatics would be a good thing in my book.
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vr, Xei
by Xeifrank on Oct 12, 2009 12:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Awesome write up of Rollins OBP. I actually was going to write something to the effect that Rollins OBP woes are really problematic during the Post Season, because every PA is so important etc. I also felt it was a good time to seriously discuss moving Rollins to the 6 hole because his clutch hit last night in the 9th would alleviate some of the emotions and irrationality that would otherwise almost certainly have impeded a rational discussion.
Notwithstanding your analysis, I wonder if it is still appropriate to move Rollins down the 6 spot simply because he is 3 for 14 (?) and that is just not very good at all. Unfortunately, I dont know his OBP or even how many walks he has had this series if any. Manual has shown a great deal of flexibility and a whatever it takes approach to the pitching staff, and so the ego bruise Rollins might feel should be lessened. That said, maybe his slow start just indicates that he is due.
Maybe his potential slugging/power etc. overrides his statisical OBP at this point, as doubles/homers from the one spot are almost certainly more valuable then 1 less out. Still, as stated above, he is slumping and that may have to play a role at some point.
Thank God they won last night!
by Whack8888 on Oct 12, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No walks so far
He hasn’t been good so far. He has 3 singles in 14 plate appearances and no walks. So, he’s hitting .214. His on-base percentage is .214. And his slugging percentage is .214. (To break the monotony, his OPS is .428.) And, he’s only scored once.
Basically, he’s been bad so far, and that hurts. But it’s not so much that he’s a bad OBP guy at the top of the lineup that’s the problem. It’s that he’s performing poorly in a small number of plate appearances. The latter is certainly related to the former, but it’s not solely caused by that.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
agreed
it puts his perspective in place. The only rebuttal I have is that it’s possible that that one extra time per post-season that he does/doens’t get the hit could be the difference in W vs L for that particular game.
translation – he gets a hit in game 5 w/ 2 on 2 outs the phils win an advance, he doesn’t —they go home. Now I realize you can say that about every person in the lineup, so it’s not a fair application to use against just rollins.
by Bilzo on Oct 12, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another thing to add as far as Lidge is concerned, I was actually listening on the radio but from what I heard, all of Lidge’s outs were fairly well hit fly balls. I have a slightly higher amount of confidence in Lidge, but that is mostly based on my belief in Luck! Also, I think the use of Madson in the 7th was a pretty awesome move on Manual’s part.
by Whack8888 on Oct 12, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
BABIP over sample size of 3. The rockies had two legit shots with balls in play to tie the game with a hit in the 9th inning, they put balls in play, but made outs on them. Attributed to luck.
by Bilzo on Oct 12, 2009 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand your point but surely this babip/luck argument can be taken too far. This isn’t slow pitch softball. Lidge beat Giambi inside with a good fastball (actually his new-found cutter supposedly) right on the hands, resulting in a sawed off foul pop, that’s not solely attibutable to luck.
by irons21 on Oct 12, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This seems right, intuitively. BABIP = luck over a large sample size. But with an individual AB, you can analyze the exact pitch and determine whether it was luck or not.
by taco pal on Oct 12, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well of course not...
but what I’m getting at is for lidge, people have been murdering him on balls in play this year. The fact that he strung together 3 in a row that turned into outs does not lead me to believe that he’s fixed.
If I flip a coin, there’s a 1 in 8 chance I’ll get heads three times. IMHO, it’s just as likely this was Lidge’s 1 in 8 outings where all balls hit off him turn into outs, because his BABIP this season has been ridiculously bad, hasn’t it? (checked BB-Ref..couldn’t find it there)
by Bilzo on Oct 12, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
.369 this year compared to .317 last year. Which means it’s not the same as a coinflip. By my calculations, he has more like a 1 in 4 chance of turning 3 hit balls in a row into outs.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the find and math. Still 1:4 isn’t great, when any man who gets on base immediately moves to scoring position.
by Bilzo on Oct 12, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and here’s the site for BABIP (and all other types of advanced stats) – Brad Lidge on Fangraphs
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
None of Lidge’s outs were well hit fly balls
by irons21 on Oct 12, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha, maybe it was just the drama of the moment and my total immersion in dread that made Franzke’s tone sound like they were all potential home run balls caught on the warning track
by Whack8888 on Oct 12, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Franzke
If Franzke made the pop-up to Feliz sound like a warning-track shot, he’s a trickster!
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was that the first out? Haha, I think instead of blaming Franzke I should just accept the fact that my memory is not good, especially after 2 am.
by Whack8888 on Oct 12, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The first out was Brad Hawpe grounding out 4-3.
by taco pal on Oct 12, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other two outs were
a foul pop to third and a shallow fly to left. Lidge’s lack of command was discouraging. But he wasn’t throwing cookies up there either. It wasn’t the best of outings, but it certainly wsn’t the worst of outings. I’ll take the result and worry about the repercussions (if any) later.
Who knows, given the vagaries of the human psyche, maybe this appearance will boost Lidge’s confidence and translate into more effective pitching. But then again, I’m still waiting for the tooth fairy to leave me my quarter.
by MJW on Oct 12, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree
The vagaries of the human psyche are definitely unpredictable. But, after each of his rare-but-still-happened 0 run saves this year, we said the same thing. And yet . . . .
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s only cause Tulo missed a ball right down the middle of the plate.
For Who? My teammates.
For What? To Win.
How Much? Where do I sign?
by jonk on Oct 12, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
None of the three outs in the ninth were particularly scary: routine ground ball to Utley, foul pop to Feliz, can o’corn to Francisco in left.
Dave touches on something here that I alluded to a few days back in discussion with taco pal in comments to a piece noting that Rollins scored 100 runs while OBP’ing under .300—making him just the second player ever to do so. We figured out that if Rollins had put up his career OBP this season and scored at the same rate, he would have crossed the plate ten more times. If he’d done something closer to his slightly better OBP of the previous few seasons, he might have scored 13 more runs.
Both numbers are nothing to sneeze at, but we’re talking about one or possibly two more wins over the course of a season in which the Phils won the division by a comfortable margin. Home field advantage? I guess, but better performance by Lidge could have much more easily accounted for that.
I still think that Rollins has to vacate the leadoff spot next year. But it is possible that the day to day annoyance of watching his bad approach in that role makes it seem more important than it really is.
by dajafi on Oct 12, 2009 12:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His approach actually seemed not-so-bad last night. I know he worked a three-ball count in the first inning, and I think he may have done it again later in the game (before his hit in the ninth). Same overall result, though.
by taco pal on Oct 12, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
But
If he would work the count more consistently, I feel the hits would follow.
I wonder if it’s a concentration thing. His hits in each of the last two games came in the ninth with the game on the line.
by MJW on Oct 12, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not really
This year: First pitch: .330/.337/.574
Career: First pitch: .340/.342/.530
And keep in mind that the OBP is definitionally deflated since he can’t have a walk on the first pitch.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does reaching on an error count towards OBP?
by FuquaManuel on Oct 12, 2009 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nope
But being hit by a pitch does.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How do
Rollins’s stats differ when he sees 4 or less pitches versus when he sees more than 4?
by MJW on Oct 12, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Small sample size – Rollins doesn’t see more than 4 pitches per at-bat often enough
(and yes, I’m joking, though it may be true for all I know)
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 12, 2009 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can't find that data
I guess it could be compiled from Baseball Reference, but I haven’t had the chance to do it. The specific-count data is here.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One bizarre thing I’m noticing already from the specific count data:
Batting average (in order):
3-0 count .500
3-1 count .372
first pitch .340
1-0 count .323
Does that suggest Jimmy’s “swing-first” mentality might not be totally stupid? It eliminates the chance of the x-0 counts, but that .340 seems high.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 12, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve gotten into a couple of discussions about this recently. I haven’t delved too deeply into whether theres something fundamentally wrong with his approach, which is probably the more relevant discussion, but I do wonder about the amount of blame that seems to be placed squarely on Jimmy’s shoulders. While ‘plate discipline’ is a fairly nuanced skill that takes a long time to develop, ‘taking more pitches’ is not. I don’t doubt that if Manuel or Thompson “wanted Jimmy to be a better leadoff batter and take more pitches” they could just tell him to and he would. Am I missing something here, or should some amount of our criticism of Jimmy’s apparent lack of discipline be focused on the coaching staff – it doesn’t seem that number of pitches seen is all that important to them.
by Steve J on Oct 12, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yahoo's #s slightly different.
(although I’d trust BR more)
Avg:
0-0: 0.330
1-0: 0.324
2-0: 0.227
3-0: 0.500
3-2: 0.164
SLG:
0-0: 0.574
1-0: 0.635
2-0: 0.455
3-0: 2.000 (ok…only 2 PAs here when he’s put a ball in play, 1 is a HR)
3-2: 0.345
What’s worse:
AVG:
0-2: 0.171
1-2: 0.141
2-2: 0.224
3-2: 0.164
The numbers suggest to me that once you get 2 strikes on Rollins, he essentially becomes a pitcher at the plate. I realize everybody is going to have lower than normal avgs w/ 2 strikes, but that’s just awful.
It basically says Jimmy recognizes he has either:
1) poor plate discipline (as in can tell, but doesn’t care)
2) just really can’t tell if it’s a ball or strike when it’s coming
As a result, him swinging early might actually be best for him, but only because he’s so horrible in deeper counts.
by Bilzo on Oct 12, 2009 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
According to BR, Rollins bats .175 with two strikes. For comparison, Werth is .210 with two strikes, Ibanez is .206, Utley is .203, and Howard is .160 (ugh).
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 12, 2009 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but how does that compare to the rest of the league.
I would think most folks aen’t that good after two stirkes
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
NL average is .183 with two strikes. MLB as a whole is .186.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 12, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where do you get the league averages for things like this? A Baseball-Reference page I don’t know about probably.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=NL&year=2009
I actually found it by accident, but the “correct” way to navigate there is Leagues —> National League —> Batting —> Splits
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 13, 2009 7:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
I’ll dig around a bit myself. Intuitively it seems that the more pitches you see, the greater your chances that the pitcher will make a mistake, which in turn should lead to greater contact. The actual numbers, however, often tell a different tale.
by MJW on Oct 12, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
This was studied quite extensively a few years ago. When ahead in the count, nearly every hitter does very well while almos all hitters are pretty bad with two strikes.
This us why the whole hitters need to stand up there taking pitches is somewhat wrong headed. Yes, long counts and drawing walks are very good things. But if you don’t swing early in the count at times, you get behind in the count and end up hitting like Sandy Koufax or Don Carmen.
There has to be balance. You have to swing at the first pitch sometimes and you can’t let good pitches to hit go by hoping to get a long count or a walk. That is just as bad as hacking away in my view.
Yes. Jayson Werth has a great approach and sees a lot of pitches. But when some hitter swings at the first pitch or early in the count it’s not necessarily a bad thing or a bad approach.
by smitty99 on Oct 12, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, that's true
Any batter who automatically took every first pitch, would find himself down in the count 0-1 almost every time, once the league figured things out. There needs to be enough variety in a hitter’s approach to avoid predictability.
That’s why it’s such a joy to watch a hitter who really has a good eye and can see which pitches are either balls or just not hittable for him.
by MJW on Oct 13, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I find myself choosing sleep and work over Phillies playoff baseball. I must re-prioritize.
by Ritty77 on Oct 12, 2009 2:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and for what it’s worth, didn’t even try. I have to be up at 5:30 (eastern) to get to work. No way I was staying up for the whole game.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
by The Dark on Oct 12, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We really missed our chance with this story. I bet the makers of Lunesta would have paid big bucks to sponsor this post.
http://www.thegoodphight.com
by WholeCamels on Oct 12, 2009 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Joe Sheehan's take on Lidge
With which, I obviously completely agree:
I’m writing this early Monday afternoon due to some scheduling issues, which has given me a chance to see some of the coverage of the game. Much of it seems to be focused on Brad Lidge getting three outs before allowing a run. Is this really the lesson we’re taking from last night? I saw a guy who started five straight batters off 1-0, who walked two of the five men he faced, who threw 11 balls and nine strikes, who got one swing-and-miss, and who seemed to have absolutely no idea where the ball was going when he released it.
I think Lidge got incredibly rescued by Brad Hawpe, who hit a weak ground ball on a 1-0 pitch to start the ninth. It was a horrible decision by Hawpe given Lidge’s command problems and the value of a leadoff baserunner in that situation. Don’t you have to be open to the possibility of a four-pitch walk? A 2-0 count? A 3-1 count? Don’t you have to give Lidge a chance to hang himself? Hawpe threw him a rope in a spot where we weren’t quite sure yet if he could swim on his own.
As far as I’m concerned, we’re still not. Lidge may have succeeded in the big picture, but if Manuel and the Phillies think he’s now a high-leverage option, they’re wrong.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think anyone with a brain is thinking that Lidge is back or our Lidge troubles are over. That’s a ridiculous thing to suggest. The reason everyone is talking about him getting 3 outs with no runs is because IT’S A GOD DAMNED MIRACLE at this point. Of course it was shaky and of course it was scary, but that’s what we expect with Lidge. No real reason to harp on that anymore, it’s nothing surprising. Cholly’s stubborn, we’ve certainly learned that, and I guess he’s gonna keep putting him out. So, what we should be talking about is the results.
by SJPhillyVT on Oct 12, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Except that the main stream media is ignoring how he got it and just pointing how that he got the save – so he must have done well
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 12, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since when do we listen to the main stream media? Who cares.
by SJPhillyVT on Oct 12, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Brad!
Hey, you still induce stomach pain among fans, but thanks for the save tonight!
by David S. Cohen on Oct 12, 2009 11:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
late post
hey guys, i know this is late, but lidge looked good tonight against his one batter he faced, and in all fairness, it was pretty obvious lidge was pitching around helton, which he did rather well so that helton did not beat him, obviously a good decision. These last two saves have to be huge for lidge’s confidence and its obvious the phillies need him, so let’s hope he has his stuff back at a perfect time, i mean come on, the guy was perfect last year…is it not a little bit possible he has regained his 08 playoff form just in time? Just a thought, also, rollins loves to bat against houston street in the ninth.
by PhilsForever on Oct 13, 2009 1:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lidge again!
Charlie has a sense about things…..Brad looked awesome last night. Manual for Manager of the Year. Sorry Howard Eskin!!
mark ferraro
by ginzo on Oct 13, 2009 8:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So he’s managing by sense?
He brought the right handed pitcher in to get the right handed hitter for one out as opposed to leaving the gimpy lefty in (who let some folk on base)
That to me seems like just common sense…not a ‘feeling’ – if Madson was available he’d probably have gone to madson
Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned
by jemagee on Oct 13, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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