Since I work with a fans from other teams, as well as some just pure baseball fans...I like to keep track of the post-season odds as presented by baseballprospectus.  Also, being an excel nerd, I would go go in every day, input their data, and keep a graph going.  Since it's the end of the year, (and I finally remembered to email the file home) I decided to share that fun little graph, and I'll go ahead and put in what I think are some key events/stretches and how those things may have impacted each teams percentages at making the post-season.

Keep in mind that this is "playoff" odds...NOT division odds.  That's why if you look close at some of the numbers, you'll notice things can add up to more than 100%, thanks to the wildcard.  Graph and commentary after the jump.

via i667.photobucket.com

Now some fun dates for each team:

Washington Nationals:

April 11th, Day one of simulations, Nats odds max at 21.3% and never get any higher.  By May 23rd, the drop to <1.0%.  That's what....7-8 weeks into the season, and it's essentially over for Nats fans.  That's a shame.

Florida Marlins:

The Marlins started off the year 11-1.  That's pretty good.  April 20th, 58% shot at playoffs.  Followed that torrid start up by dropping 7 straight (3 of those to the Phils!).  At the end of that slide, they'd cut their odds in roughly in half, down to 30.5%.  The month of may was particularly cruel to the Fish who only won 9 games the whole month against 18 losses, including losing streaks of 3, 3, 4, and 5 games.  That's all in 1 month.  Yikes.  By the end of May the Marlins were 23-28 and about a 3% shot at meaningful October baseball.  They had a decent June and managed to get back over .500 by the ASB, and had a nice stretch in August where the swept the Phils in the midst of a 5 game winning streak and ran their odds back to 24% after play on August 11th (coincidentally, when my grandmother turned 102!!!).  From that point on though, the Fish faded into oblivion and joined the ranks of spoilers.

New York Mets:

Aside from the Marlins incendiary start, the Mets played the best ball at the start of the year.  As of May  29th, they topped out at 77%.  What happened?  Umm....I think we all know, and we're not shedding any tears over it.

Reyes - Done for the season on May 14th.

Beltran - Done for the season on June 22nd.

Delgado - Done for the season on May 11th.

Putz - Done for the season on June 6th.

Honestly, I'm a little surprised they hung around as long as they did, but their AAA lineup caught up with them around the end of June and they PLUMMETTED.  From June 27th to July 27th, they went from ~62% to (wait for it.........................)   3%! while playing about 9-18 over that stretch.  Not abominably hideous, but bad enough to seal their fate.

Atlanta Braves:

Aaah...a true model of consitency over the season.   The Braves played about 80% of the season hovering between 10 and 30%.  On May 5th, the Braves were 5 games under 500 (odds = 20%).  June 27th, they'd fallen to 6 under (odds = 10%). From there until mid-Sept the braves were pretty much within 5 games of .500 the whole way.  If they won a few in a row, they'd drop a few to make up for it, and vice versa.  In September though, they played out of their minds and thumped the likes of the Nats and Mets, winning 15 out of 17 during a stretch (those 2 losses to the Phils though) and running their playoff odds from a yeah, right! of 1% all the way up to 23%.  Then some guy named Matt Diaz had a moment of indecision debating whether or not to try and score on a wild-pitch and the whole thing went *poof*.  The Braves didn't win another game and were done.

The Phillies:

The Phillies didn't start as bad this year as they had in a few recent ones.  The difference was that the Marlins got off to such a hot start, that the Phils just couldn't keep pace.  At the end of April, the Phils were 11-9,  1.5 games back, but only a 15% shot at the post-season.  Then came May....and a 17-11 record, but only going 3-7 against NYM/FLA/ATL.  Going 8-0 against the Nats didn't hurt.  End of May...Phils are up a half game, and 37% chance at playoffs.  June was unkind to the Phils...sure they started if off by finishing up a 7 game winning streak, but then came those pesky AL East teams.  11-15 during the month, with some losses by some guy named Madson.  Thankfully, the rest of the division wasn't doing so well then either.  Phils maintained their division lead and were still up 1.5 at the end of the month.  Hurry up July...get here already!!

July had 'the streak'....a 10 game winner.  This pretty much put the division away, coupled with the 4 game win streak that occurred in front of it.  Heck...they were a Brad Lidge BS away from winning 15 in a row.  On July 2nd the Phils were tied for the division lead with the Mets, while being 12 percentage points less likely to make the playoffs (40 vs 28).  15 games later, they're up 6.5 games.  The Mets have stunk it up and are now a 4% chance at playoffs.  The Phils?  80.  The Phils slid a little, after the aforementioned sweep at the hand of the Marlins, but then something clicked again in mid-august, and the Phils just stepped on the throats of their pursuers.  From Aug 11-24th, the Phils went 11-2, got 3 wins from newcomer Cliff Lee, held the division lead at 7 games and were at 92%.

The Braves and Marlins had played decently during this time, but they just couldn't afford to lose a game.  It seemed as though the Phils were winning every game, making their winning exercises in futility, just basically stopping them from dropping further back.  Essentially, they were either treading water or sinking.

So there you have it... a mini-recap of chutes and ladders amongst the NL east teams (sorry nats...you just tripped at the starting block)