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Some Thoughts After the Phillies Beat the Dodgers (and Now Have Home-Field Advantage)

With the game ending late last night and today's game starting early, the best I can muster is a notes column.  With the Phillies up 1-0, here are some thoughts to take you into this afternoon's action:

• The Phillies were not supposed to score any of their runs last night:
- They scored their first three runs on a three-run home run by Carlos Ruiz, their 8-hole hitting catcher.  This was Ruiz's second three-run home run of his career.  His other 22 home runs (including his World Series home run last year) have been either solo shots (14) or with one man on (8).
- They scored their next two when Ryan Howard hit a two-out double against a lefty.  How unlikely was this?  Howard had a .653 OPS this season against lefties, and Clayton Kershaw had a .489 opponents' OPS when facing lefties.
- They scored their final three when Raul Ibanez hit a three-run home run against George Sherrill.  Sherrill was even better this year against lefties than Kershaw.  Sherrill had a .342 opponents' OPS when facing lefties and gave up 0 home runs.
But this is why they play the games, right?

• The Dodgers lost even though they scored 6 runs.  With their pitching staff, that's incredibly rare.  In fact, this year, the Dodgers went 12-1 when scoring 6 runs, losing only to the Marlins in July.  They were 51-4 when scoring 6 or more runs.

• Say what you want about the Phillies' bullpen this year, but they certainly do make the games more entertaining.  Last year, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge seemed automatic, so games were pretty much shortened to six innings.  Once those three came in, you could relax and count on the win.  This year, the bullpen has been anything but automatic.  Even with Lidge's recent save streak, there's no forgetting his horrific regular season performance.  Thus, when he comes in to save a post-season game this year, I have no doubt that every Phillies fan is on the edge of his or her seat, heart thumping a bit more quickly.  When Lidge gets the final out, there's a huge sigh of relief.  The ride is bumpier, which makes the end result that much more entertaining and rewarding.

• dajafi pointed out in the comments section of my entry yesterday that yesterday's game would give a huge psychological edge to whoever won it.  If the Phillies won, they've continued their dominance from last post-season and the pressure today will be unbearable.  If the Dodgers won, they've proven they can put last year behind them.  But I think there's an added element here.  Yesterday, the Dodgers threw their best at the Phillies.  They pitched their three dominant lefties against our lefty-heavy lineup.  And the Phillies still scored 8 runs, all of them against left-handed pitchers who slaughter left-handed hitters.  When you fail with the deck stacked so heavily in your favor, the failure is that much more difficult to get over.

• Chan Ho Park looked awesome last night.  According to the radar gun, he was hitting the mid-90s reliably.  His pitches were perfectly located and had great movement.  Ruben Amaro Jr. said that Park will be limited to an inning while he gets his strength back, but if last night is an indication of how he's going to pitch this series, the Phillies should really consider using him for multiple innings.  A dominant arm like that in the bullpen will be key given the unpredictability of Madson and Lidge at this point.

• After one game:
Ryan Howard against lefties:  .500/.750/1.000 for a 1.750 OPS.  In four plate appearances, he has 1 long fly ball out, 1 double, and 2 walks.
Ryan Howard against righties:  .000/.000/.000 for a .000 OPS.  In one plate appearance, he struck out.

• I don't normally watch games with a pitch track graphic, as most of my baseball watching comes watching Phillies games and the local broadcasts don't feature it.  After watching the TBS pitch track for five games now, I'm left wondering how different the game of baseball would be if umpires called the actual strikezone (assuming the pitch track shows the real zone).  Umpires regularly call pitches that are inches off the plate strikes.  And, I guess I've been trained by watching those calls, since those calls look like strikes to me.  But, in the graphic, they aren't.  If the strike zone were really called as small as it really is, the game would be radically changed.

• Finally, those announcers were horrible.  Buck Martinez has a horrible voice.  Ron Darling sounds like Robert deNiro (seriously).  And, as someone pointed out somewhere, Chip Caray talks about fisting a whole lot.  Collectively, the three of them were Dodgers' groupies.  When the Dodgers were at bat, it was all about how much the Dodgers have grown this year and how the Dodgers' young hitters have learned how to hit and win without Manny Ramirez in the lineup.  When the Phillies were at bat, it was all about the Dodgers' pitching staff.  And hey, did you hear that the Dodgers' youngsters now know they can win without Manny Ramirez?  The announcers had at least half a dozen narratives they were following for the Dodgers.  I'm not even sure if they noticed the Phillies were playing last night, let alone that they were the defending World Series champs.  I understand TBS and Fox are "rooting" for a Dodgers/Yankees World Series, but last night was really hard to stomach.  But, maybe I should stop complaining.  I've heard the Dodgers' young hitters have more confidence this year, even if Manny isn't producing, and that should make me shut up and be happy, right?

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I thought the announcing was more pro-Manny than pro-Dodgers but YMMV. (Not that that would make it any better anyway.)

I can’t wait to see how bad it will get if we have Joe Buck doing PBP for a Phillies-Yankees WS!!!

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 12:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t care for the announcers either, but I didn’t think they were Dodgers homers. They paid out a good deal of compliments to the Phillies, but they did go over the top with the Manny-gushing. It was almost sickening.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 16, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

Horrible announcing, maybe a little Dodger friendly, but not too unbalanced. Just not very insightful or interesting to listen to.

by MJW on Oct 16, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

I could have turned the sound off and not have missed anything.

by Cormican on Oct 16, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the level of excitement from the announcers when the dodgers score (or disappointment at an out) is not on a par with what happens when the phils score. It’s ho-hum.

by Bilzo on Oct 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chip Carey was talking, non-stop, about ways for the Dodgers to win. Every inning, something about how the Dodgers have a chance, or now they are back in it or something like that. Seemed like their announcers.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 16, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed completely

I can’t recall a single meme or recurring narrative about the Phillies. I can recall several they hammered home about the Dodgers.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 16, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That Jimmy Rollins isn’t a typical leadoff hitter?

by FuquaManuel on Oct 16, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sure

They talked about players when they were at-bat or made a play. But, as filler, were they telling any stories or making any commentary about the Phillies as a team? That’s what filled the time about the Dodgers, beyond just talking about who was at-bat or who was pitching.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Didn’t they talk a bit about how Charlie’s handling of the Lidge situation reflects the way he handles players in general? That’s sort of like a team narrative, even if it’s illustrated by an individual narrative. But I could just be making that up.

Anyway, I can still see your overall point. The TMZ-ization of American sports coverage. People don’t want to watch sports anymore, they want celebrities and social elites who wear uniforms.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Full disclosure: I muted it after Cole was taken out. I couldn’t take it any more. But I also noticed that when the Phillies were up, the discussion was about Dodgers pitching and when the Dodgers were up, the discussion was about the Dodgers hitters. It got very annoying very quickly, especially when they started to threaten, and it was only making me more anxious. So admittedly, I have no idea what they were talking about for the last 3+ innings, but I can guess.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mostly

How you can’t count the Dodgers and their tenacious hitters out. Sure the Phillies s cored 8 runs, but how about these young Dodgers? Blah, blah, blah.

The only thing I took away from the game that was informative was to pound Manny inside with fastballs, because he can’t get around on them.

by Cormican on Oct 16, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We listened to WPHT, which was much more in sync than it was in the NLDS. Still not perfect, but beats listening to the TBS guys.

*sigh*

by zempf on Oct 16, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitch track

This is just me… but I wish TBS would turn the damn pitch tracker off. I invariably find myself focusing too much on this thing and griping more and more about the strike zone and calls.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 16, 2009 12:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

How does it work anyway?

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve just done about 20 min of research trying to figure it out. No luck. Doesn’t help that a search turns up about a million blog posts about how irritating it is.

by Steve J on Oct 16, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Its a good question. I suspect (just speculating) that its based on a center field camera, which is why the zone appears just off center to the pitcher and the plate.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 16, 2009 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I just always assumed those things were way off anyway. I don’t know why they’d show something that disagrees so frequently with the ump’s calls. Can’t be good for the game.

by SJPhillyVT on Oct 16, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Some good thoughts. As the numbers show, Ryan Howard’s struggles against lefties are over (can’t argue with a 1.750 OPS) and Brad Lidge has returned to dominance. Er.

I don’t think PitchTrax is a good or meaningful addition to a baseball broadcast. First, it seems to be fairly inaccurate. Watching replays (with or without the offset outfield camera) tells us that it routinely gets close calls wrong. Also, the proportions are really skewed – the way it’s represented, the strike zone looks to be 3 baseball diameters wide, when in reality it’s about 6 baseball diameters. It seems to handle balls out of the zone even worse, with some of the dot placement looking totally random. I’ve also come across some information suggesting it is a fixed area, that is, it isn’t moved up and down relative to the batter.

Second, and I think more importantly, it’s unnecessary information. There are many different graphics that could be used in a broadcast, but in the interest of actually watching the baseball game, we leave the critique to in-game replays, or even after the game. As baseball is played right now, the strike zone is not “that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the bottom of the knees.” It’s the umpires interpretation of that rule. Batters routinely talk about learning an umpire’s zone for the day, and they complain far more about inconsistencies over the course of a game than inconsistencies from umpire to umpire.

So what point is there in having a graphic that inaccurately points out the times when a home plate umpire’s strike zone differs slightly from the rule stated in the manual. All it does is take up screen space, distract viewers and fuel the ire of people who think the umpire is out to get their team.

Get rid of it.

by Steve J on Oct 16, 2009 1:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well… if they could give us the Eagle Eye technology they have in tennis, I would be pretty interested in seeing that. But for it to be really accurate, it would probably require batters to wear miniature cameras on their knees and waists. So given that it’s probably impossible to ever get to a truly accurate graphic, I agree with what your overall conclusion.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just pulled this off an (admittedly dated, 2001) article:

The technology, which combines image processing, photogrammetry, and physics, first defines the baseball and other images captured by high-speed digital cameras positioned on the third and first-base lines. The cameras snap pictures as the ball makes its four-tenths-of-a-second journey from the pitcher’s hand to the batter. Along the way, multiple track points are measured to precisely locate the ball in space and time. Using information based on Robert Adair’s book The Physics of Baseball, the system determines the ball’s position and speed in the gaps between sampled data points. The software tracks and stores every pitch for retrieval and comparison.
-from ASEE Prism

Not terribly enlightening, but about what I figured. I just can’t shake the suspicion that there’s some inherent flaw in their model, because it doesn’t seem terribly accurate.

I like the bit later on in the piece where a broadcaster lauds its ability to recall pitch sequence. It’s always interesting to me to see how a pitcher got a given batter out, or how a batter approached a pitcher. But this could be far better reproduced with the rapid fire “pitch sequence” replays we see on ESPN sometimes.

by Steve J on Oct 16, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pitchtrax

is the glowing hockey puck of baseball.

Also, Clayton Kershaw looks bizarre with his patchy Amish beard thingy.

by Cormican on Oct 16, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention

his assymetrical face. That’s right, he’s an ass-face.

I bet he and Matt Stafford got lots of H.S. tail back in the day though.

by BigPhillyStyle on Oct 16, 2009 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or now even.

Though not H.S. I guess.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s okay as long as you take it with a grain of salt. When lefties pitch to lefties, it seems to show outside corner strikes as a good 6 inches outside of the “zone”. As long as you accept that this is a grey area where some pitches are strikes and some are balls, I find it is actually nice to have a graphic that puts pitch location into some perspective, even if that perspective bears only a little relation to what the ump is calling and seeing.

That probably makes little sense, but I guess what I’m saying is I like pitchtrax for the relative comparisons it allows for over the course of the whole game. As an arbiter of any one specific ball/strike call, it isn’t very useful.

by BigPhillyStyle on Oct 16, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sorry

this was in reponse to the pitchtrax thread up above. Got distracted thinking of H.S. tail.

by BigPhillyStyle on Oct 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

The problem I have is, if it can’t be relied on as accurate for one pitch, how accurate can you take the data as a composite. Last night Kershaw bounced a pitch 5 feet in front of HP and when they showed the pitchtrax graphic for all pitches in the at bat, it appears that ball barely missed the strike zone (In there defense it may have bounced that high by the time it got to the plate). To me, it’s a mildly interesting gimmick.

by Cormican on Oct 16, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

today's home plate umpire

Is, I believe, Bruce Dreckman. Seems like a lot of people consider him to be a poor ball/strike umpire.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He should fit right in then. Have we gotten a good HP ump yet in the playoffs?

by dajafi on Oct 16, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marsh actually has a pretty good reputation for being consistent with his small strike zone, though I didn’t think he was all that great last night. Either way, yeah, it’s been pretty bad overall.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m wondering if that sort of search would turn up a similar number of diatribes about almost any umpire. I’ve been wasting away my time at work doing more research on this, and it seems that at least until last year, a company called QuesTec, using the method outlined above, sold their services to both MLB for an umpire grading system and networks for graphics like PitchTrax. The product they have more closely resembles the MLB GameDay graphic showing the whole flight path, but since QuesTec and TBS both call it “PitchTrax ©”, I’d guess they’re related. I like the idea of charting pitches – it’s another great analytical tool to measure how well a pitcher is performing. I think maybe TBS could improve it a lot by getting it off the screen for every at bat and ditching the red “strike zone” – just show where the plate is.

More in relation to your comment – it sounds like MLB uses this system to grade umpires and the ones with the best grades get to officiate in the playoffs. Maybe this is even more damning evidence against the accuracy of the system.

An interesting fact: Former Senatorial Hopeful Curt Schilling was once fined $15k for smashing a QuesTec camera with a bat.

by Steve J on Oct 16, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

3rd bullet

right on. When Madson and Lidge come in I have to start pacing around the room I’m such a bundle of nerves.

I’m starting to get fired up for game 2. I really think the crafty veteran is going to give us a good outing.

LET’s Go PHILLIES – clap, clap, clap-clap-clap!

by BigPhillyStyle on Oct 16, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Padilla

For some reason, I’m not as sure as I was that he’ll falter today. On the one hand, I think he’s probably due for a bad game—he seems to have pitched in some luck after joining the Dodgers—and our guys should have a good approach as usual.

But my whole idea about him self-destructing from the mental strain of what’s essentially a “must-win” start (teams do come back from losing the first two games at home, but only about once a decade) is kind of predicated on, one, him understanding that it’s a must-win, and two, particularly caring about that. By most accounts, Padilla isn’t likely to meet either standard… which in a weird way could liberate him from feeling much stress. I could see him throwing seven innings of five-hit, two-run ball as easily as a three-plus inning implosion in which we torch him for six or seven runs.

by dajafi on Oct 16, 2009 2:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with this 100%. I’m not going to call Vicente stupid or anything, but he does seem to have a personality that’s frighteningly detached and possibly even psychopathic. It’s very difficult to predict how he’ll be affected by this or any other set of circumstances.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m exaggerating a little, of course, but seriously – dude is crazy!

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i just hope rollins or vic can get on base and then steal one and score. Every ensuing baserunner will be like a gnat to him.

by Bilzo on Oct 16, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

“Detached” is a great word for it. Just seems like he was born with a defective give-a-crap…

by dajafi on Oct 16, 2009 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, I agree with that. At the same time, I wouldn’t call him a loafer per se. He’s detached not like a weed-smoker is detached, but like a serial killer is detached. He gives “effort” in a manner of speaking, but something about it is just “off.”

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like

how you decided calling him stupid would be more extreme than labeling him a psychopath. lol

by Cormican on Oct 16, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Possibly, Cormican. Possibly a psychopath.

by taco pal on Oct 16, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Padilla

I hope he comes up to the plate to bat as a lefty and as a righty today. That was definitely one of the highlights of his time as a Phillie.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 16, 2009 3:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I hope we shell him outta the stadium before he gets a chance to get 2 ABs

by philiafan14364 on Oct 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Am I the only one confused as to why everyone’s saying we have home field advantage? there’s 3 games left in LA and 3 left in Philly. Is it because we have one win already?

by SJPhillyVT on Oct 16, 2009 3:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Correct

We don’t have to win any more road games to win the series.

by phatj on Oct 16, 2009 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or to put it another way

If we win our home games, we win the series. At the start of the series, if each team won its home games, the Dodgers would win 4-3. Now, if that happens with the remaining games, we’d win 4-1.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 16, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Makes sense now.

by SJPhillyVT on Oct 16, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ron darling

Hello everyone, just found this blog a few weeks a go.. hooked onto it…

living in the CT area, i have to suffer through Ron darling’s play by play for the Mets the whole year. If you thought he was biased last night, you should see Mets vs Phillies on SNY, the guy never stops hating on the phillies, CBP, hamels, rollins etc etc..

Hello everyone again

by ramble_on_ on Oct 16, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That also means you have to suffer through the Mets all year. I’m not sure which is worse.

by Cormican on Oct 16, 2009 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Brad Lidge postseason play log

NLDS Game 1 – did not play

NLDS Game 2 – did not play

NLDS Game 3
Brad Hawpe: Ball, Hawpe grounded out to second.
Carlos Gonzalez: Ball, Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Foul, Foul, Foul, Gonzalez walked
Jason Giambi: Ball, Strike swinging, Gonzalez stole second, Giambi fouled out to third.
Todd Helton: Ball, Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Helton walked.
Troy Tulowitzki: Eric O. Young ran for Todd Helton, Ball, Tulowitzki flied out to left.

NLDS Game 4
Troy Tulowitzki: Strike looking, Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Tulowitzki struck out swinging.

NLCS Game 1
Matt Kemp: Strike looking, Foul, Kemp singled to left.
Casey Blake: Ball, Strike looking, Ball, Foul, Blake grounded into double play second to shortstop to first, Kemp out at second.
James Loney: Strike looking, Foul, Foul, Ball, Ball, Ball, Loney walked.
Ronnie Belliard: Ball, Loney to second on fielder’s indifference, Strike swinging, Belliard popped out to shortstop.

NLCS Game 2 – did not play

NLCS Game 3 – did not play

NLCS Game 4
Matt Kemp: Pickoff attempt, Pickoff attempt, Ball, Pickoff attempt, Ball, Strike looking, Foul, Foul, Foul, Ball, Kemp struck out swinging, Furcal stole second.
Andre Ethier: Foul, Strike swinging, Ball, Ball, Ethier struck out looking.

by Jay on Oct 21, 2009 5:27 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Just wanted to post this somewhere to help me decide what I think of it.

12 batters faced: 3 strikeouts, 3 walks, 1 single, 0 extra-base hits, 5 outs on balls in play.

56 pitches: 25 balls, 31 strikes.

31 strikes: 9 looking, 5 swinging, 12 fouls, 5 balls in play.

5 balls in play: groundout to 2B, flyout to LF, single to LF, GIDP to 2B, popout to SS.

At a glance: Not enough strikes, too many walks. Opposing batters seem to be helping Lidge by not being selective enough. On the other hand, it does appear that only 2 out of 12 batters have made decent contact; Lidge is not coasting too much on lucky placement of balls in play.

by Jay on Oct 21, 2009 5:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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