Dodgers vs Phillies, Game #3 Simulation

by Xeifrank on Oct 18, 2009 11:18 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Friday at 8:15PM)

Visitors	Home	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	AccuScore
LAN	PHI	H.Kuroda vs C.Lee	PHI	63.79%	58.94%	57%

Skinny: Simulator Fun Facts... The Phillies and Cliff Lee are solid favorites to win Game #3. The Vegas line has the Phillies' win probability five percentage points higher than my simulator. Vegas probably doesn't like Kuroda's recent layoff, and couple that with Cliff Lee's recent stellar performances and there probably lies the difference. AccuScore has come in with a prediction right in line with my simulator.

Top 50 Most Likely Scores
1	PHI 3-2
2	PHI 4-3
3	PHI 2-1
4	PHI 5-4
5	LAN 3-2
6	LAN 4-3
7	PHI 3-1
8	PHI 4-2
9	PHI 4-1
10	LAN 2-1
11	PHI 5-3
12	PHI 5-2
13	PHI 6-5
14	LAN 4-2
15	LAN 5-4
16	LAN 3-1
17	PHI 5-1
18	LAN 5-3
19	PHI 3-0
20	LAN 5-2
21	PHI 6-3
22	PHI 6-4
23	PHI 1-0
24	PHI 6-2
25	LAN 6-5
26	LAN 6-4
27	PHI 4-0
28	LAN 4-1
29	PHI 2-0
30	LAN 6-3
31	PHI 6-1
32	LAN 6-2
33	PHI 5-0
34	PHI 7-6
35	PHI 7-2
36	PHI 7-1
37	PHI 7-3
38	PHI 7-4
39	LAN 5-1
40	PHI 6-0
41	LAN 1-0
42	LAN 2-0
43	PHI 7-5
44	LAN 7-5
45	LAN 7-4
46	LAN 7-3
47	LAN 3-0
48	PHI 8-3
49	LAN 7-2
50	LAN 6-1

Game Pitching Results
Pitcher	IP	SO	BB	HR	WHIP	FIP
H.Kuroda	6.7	5.083	1.490	0.907	1.298	4.106
C.Lee	7.2	5.941	1.234	0.522	1.186	3.006

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting. Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup. The lineups I used are listed below. Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off. Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off. But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
	Name	wOBA	Name	wOBA
1	R.Furcal	.3099	J.Rollins	.3393
2	M.Kemp	.3414	S.Victorino	.3479
3	A.Ethier	.3018	C.Utley	.3746
4	M.Ramirez	.3580	R.Howard	.3786
5	C.Blake	.3123	J.Werth	.3468
6	J.Loney	.2980	R.Ibanez	.3591
7	R.Belliard	.3145	P.Feliz	.2997
8	R.Martin	.3014	C.Ruiz	.3071
9	H.Kuroda	.1461	C.Lee	.1485

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Comments

11-0! Where is that on your stupid fucking simulator????

by FuquaManuel on Oct 18, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

beat me by 1 second!!!! grrrrr

by philiafan14364 on Oct 18, 2009 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont see 11-0 anywhere on your list – forces me to conclude that your simulator sucks and that you need to find a single team and stick with them.

by philiafan14364 on Oct 18, 2009 11:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

11-0 was 115th most likely score.

Thanks for asking in a Philadelphia kind of way. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 18, 2009 11:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We were asking sarcastically. We really don’t care about your answer.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 19, 2009 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, anyways it was 115th… kind of amazing that it was listed that high, no? Tomorrow’s simulation will be posted shortly. It has the Dodgers as a very very slight favorite. Will be interesting to see where the Vegas line comes in after that massacre tonight. They are more likely to have their odds effected psychologically by what happened the previous night than my simulator.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Vegas likes Phillies in Game #4

55+%
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand that of the possible scores that

11-0 was 115 most likely, but of the percentages of all possible scores (to a threshold — 1,433,555 to 14 is a possible score, but not bloody likely), but what would be the probability that 11-0 would be the score. It isn’t 1/115, since the scores are not equally likely.

Does the simulation provide that?

Also, what platform do you run the simulator on? What data are used as inputs? Is it OSS or proprietary?

I’m actually sort of curious about it, and how the weighting of existing statistical criteria are weighted/used to generate results.

Remember the Phitans

by RememberthePhitans on Oct 19, 2009 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It occurred 134 times out of 100,000 games. As a reference point the most likely score of 3-2 Phillies occurred 4,016 times. 11-0 Dodgers winning occurred 40 times. Simulator runs in C/C++ created by myself, runs on Windows or MAC. Inputs are, player hitting, pitching and defense projections, HFA, park factors among a few others. That’s all the detail I can go into.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

be nice, guys

Seriously. There’s no harm to this.

by dajafi on Oct 19, 2009 12:39 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

So what does Xei mean?

Is that your name? If so, what’s Frank?

by phatj on Oct 19, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it’s just an anonymous internet name.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty unusual score

I’m not surprised that combination didn’t show up. I have no idea how many times a regular season game has ended 11-0, although I imagine there’s a way to find that out from a baseball reference. I can’t remember the last time I saw it in a box score. I do know there was at least one postseason game with that score: Game one of the 1959 World Series, the Chicago White Sox, not noted for their offense that year, 11, Los Angeles Dodgers, 0. That didn’t stop the Dodgers, however, as their pitchers held the White Sox to 12 runs over the next five games and took the Series, four games to two.

by phillyinportland on Oct 19, 2009 1:08 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This goes to prove that reality is the problem.

Reality tends to be very unreal…

Well, I never heard it before, but it sounds uncommon nonsense.
- The Mock Turtle, Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll -

by eths on Oct 19, 2009 7:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It would be interesting to run various simulations based on different line ups, mainly focusing around Jimmy Rollins not being the lead off guy. But other things like Werth and Ibanez in 5 or 6 spots, and maybe the line ups with various DH guys would be interesting as well.

by Whack8888 on Oct 19, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yes, it would. Usually small changes to the lineup order don’t matter. The results come out very similar, or atleast within the margin of error. So you can’t tell if the lineup change helped or hurt as the results are drowned out in the noise. Bigger differences come if you move the pitcher way up in the order or bat your best hitters at the end of the lineup… all obvious dumb things. Picking the correct 9 guys to put in the lineup is the most important thing by far, and putting the right person at DH in an AL game makes a difference from a defensive standpoint. If you make the W.S. I will run those too.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 19, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs