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Day-After Thoughts

A few maybe-pertinent musings while I half-watch the Yankees vs. Angels and wonder how Scott Kazmir, a pitcher who averaged about 5 2/3 innings and 101 pitches per start this season, and has never been particularly efficient, can possibly go deep into this game:

  • Joe Torre continues to tinker with his lineup and rotation much more than you'd expect, given his rep for unflappability. He's used a different batting order--though the same eight guys--in each of the first four games, and has bumped Vicente Padilla ahead of Game One starter Clayton Kershaw to go tomorrow night with the Dodgers' season on the line. Meanwhile, the Phillies' lineup may as well be written in stone: same eight guys, in the same batting order, through the first eight games of the postseason. 
  • One big concern going into this series was that the Dodgers' two lefty starters, Wolf and Kershaw, and three lefty relievers would neutralize Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. In the most obvious sense, this hasn't come to pass: Howard has been out of his mind against all comers, and has two big hits--his two-run double in Game One against Kershaw and the two-run homer off Wolf in the first inning Monday night--plus a few walks against the southpaws. Ibanez hit the stunning three-run homer off George Sherrill in the first game that provided the margin of victory. Utley had a key RBI single against Wolf that brought the Phils within a run in the sixth inning Monday. But Ibanez is 0 for 10 since that first game, including three hitless at-bats against Wolf and Hong-Chih Kuo/Manny Ramirez, and Utley is 1 for 6--though he's also drawn three walks.  
  • Before Game Two, I didn't think it was especially likely that Padilla would rise to the occasion in what amounted to a must-win game for the Dodgers. Of course, he pitched one of the best games of his life, keeping pace with Pedro Martinez for long enough that the patience of the Dodger hitters, combined with untimely defensive mistakes on the part of the Phillies, delivered two runs and a win. Could the former Phillie, just two months removed from getting released by the Rangers, do it again tomorrow, in a literal must-win, with the crowd in his face and the temperature 35 degrees colder? Padilla's splits offer a mixed prognosis. He was actually better on the road this season, with a 7-2 record, 3.60 ERA and .232 opponent batting average. But night baseball hasn't agreed with him: in 17 appearances (16 starts), he's just 6-5 with a 5.38 ERA and .301 opponent batting average. Nor was Padilla particularly effective in Citizens Bank Park over the two seasons he called it home: 10-11 record, 4.98 ERA in 26 career starts.    
  • Though Cole Hamels earned his fifth career postseason win in Game One, his performance didn't particularly impress. His first two playoff starts have shown some of the same traits that took away from his regular season: loss of focus and composure in one or two bad innings, plus more than a bit of lousy luck. It's been over a month since Hamels last turned in a quality start--an eight-inning, five-hit, one-run, 10-strikeout gem against Washington.  That said, every split suggests that Hamels will be sharper against LA for Game Five: he's been better at home, better at night, and has a lot of success against the Dodgers, regular and postseason both, to draw upon.
  • Still more proof that batting average doesn't tell you much: the Phils as a team are hitting .224 in this series to the Dodgers' .233, and have outscored them 25 to 12. 

23 hours until first pitch of Game Five... 

0 recs  |  Comment 23 comments |

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While the Yankees continue to cruise toward a 3-1 lead in their series, I thought I’d throw out a pair of comments to your set of thoughts.
1) That surprised me about the averages in the NLCS because I had just looked earlier at the overall postseason averages and saw the Phillies leading in just about every offensive category except home runs (Yankees 12-10) and doubles (Angels 14-11). But there it is in black and white: .233 vs. .224. What that means in real numbers is that the Dodgers have two more hits in four more at bats, which is pretty negligible. But the power numbers are amazing: the Phillies have 13 extra base hits, the Dodgers only five. And the walks: 19 for the Phillies, only nine for L.A. So OPS is .784, which is almost exactly the Phillies’ regular season number of .781, vs. a mere .604.
2) Just thought I’d mention that after viewing the errant throw by Feliz at least four times now I don’t think it was that bad a throw. It was low and in the dirt but right in front of Howard. I’m not saying it should have been an error on Howard but I’ve seen him and lots of other first basemen make that play hundreds of times. Feliz had to back up to take the bounce and that appeared to make his throw a little awkward. I’m glad we didn’t end up losing by the run Manny scored because then Feliz would have had an off day of questions about his defense, which, considering his other problems, is the least of his worries.

by phillyinportland on Oct 20, 2009 10:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, the walks the Phils have drawn in this series arguably have been the difference. That Utley and Howard are staying patient against lefties has been huge.

by dajafi on Oct 20, 2009 11:08 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

What’s Padilla’s rep as a fielder? I’m thinking some successful bunt attempts for base hits from Rollins and Victorino can add the kind of distraction that can really rattle him. (Then again, if I were the Dodgers, I might try the same thing vs Hamels).

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 20, 2009 11:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Basically any time the opposing team drops a bunt, I tense up. Given the way those plays have been going in the playoffs.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 21, 2009 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

At this point, I wouldn’t mind if the pitcher just stood there. Give up the hit, just don’t injure yourself doing something stupid.

by Steve J on Oct 21, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would be funny to watch. the prevent defense of bunts.

by TheArtistFormerlyKnownAsMichaelBourn on Oct 21, 2009 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Chooch is about the only guy I want bunting for a hit right now. Maybe Vic, maybe Feliz.
Chooch and Feliz are both very good bunters, especially when not expected.

Rollins would be mad at the idea of being told to bunt for a hit, and might bunt foul twice on purpose just to be allowed to swing away.
I don’t know that I’ve seen Vic drop down a good bunt for a hit all year.

by Bilzo on Oct 21, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Given how awful Feliz has been swinging away, I’m not sure he shouldn’t always be bunting.

by dajafi on Oct 21, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think that’s actually a really good idea, at least for his first AB tonight (depending on game situation, of course).

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just realized that

a WS Game 1 could potentially square Lee off against Sabbathia.

Way to go Cleveland…

by andyreidswaistline on Oct 20, 2009 11:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

They did get Matt LaPorta for Sabathia though.

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2009 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I had that thought too. Tough for the Tribe, a team I usually pull for… especially considering that two years ago they were a win away from the WS themselves.

by dajafi on Oct 21, 2009 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m a little nervous about tomorrow, mainly because I don’t know what to expect from Cole, but I’m not nearly as nervous as I was for game 5 last year. I guess I should be, because if we lose, 2 games in LA will definitely not be a cakewalk.

by FuquaManuel on Oct 21, 2009 12:09 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Always nervous before any game, but I wouldn’t switch places with Dodgers’ fans right now.

by doubleh on Oct 21, 2009 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll be a little nervous until the Phils wrap the NCLS up. Still, you’re talking about getting one win out of Hamels, Pedro, or Lee. I’ll take my chances with that, no matter where they play.

by The R on Oct 21, 2009 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We All Know BA Doesn't Tell Us Much...

…so why is the fact that Utley is 1-6 with 3 walks vs lefties treated as a negative?

by EastFallowfield on Oct 21, 2009 5:12 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice piece.

Re: Torre’s tinkering, I have to say that while I’ve agreed with most of his “controversial” pitching decisions (i.e. leaving Kershaw in to face Howard in Game 1, leaving Sherrill in to face Howard in Game 4), his tinkering with the lineup has probably been counterproductive. Kemp/Ethier/Manny is the smart thing to do for late inning purposes, but you’re overthinking it if you’re batting Ronnie Belliard anywhere above 7th in this lineup.

by PhillyFriar on Oct 21, 2009 11:00 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure it matters much

Except for batting Belliard second, which is a real head scratcher. I think most of the rest of Torre’s lineup moves have a logical basis. Getting Blake down to eighth spot was smart and shifting Kemp, Ethier and Loney around depending on whether a right hander or a left hander is pitching seems logical. Of course the logical or theoretical advantages of switching around versus the value of a set batting order like the Phillies have are hard to test in the real world. Unless you’re doing something crazy like sticking the pitcher in the leadoff spot, lineup order is unlikely to make much of a difference in any single game. So you’re probably right that Torre is overmanaging, but for the most part I don’t think his tinkering has caused any harm. The Phils are just a better hitting team.

by MJW on Oct 21, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s probably hurt the Dodgers very little. But it would have been better for him to hurt the Dodgers not at all.

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It matters...

…in late game situations. If Torre replicates the lineup we saw in Game 1…

Furcal
Ethier
Manny
Kemp
Blake
Loney
Belliard
Martin

…you only have to use a lefty to pitch to Ethier (and Furcal before him, if the situation dictates). You can then use a righty to pitch to Manny, Kemp, and Blake. But if Torre replicates his Game 4 lineup…

Furcal
Kemp
Ethier
Manny
Loney
Belliard
Martin
Blake

…and you wind up pitching to the top of that lineup in a close and late situation, you really can’t left Kemp face a lefty, and you can’t let Ethier face a righty. Torre not sandwiching Ethier in between Kemp and Manny is akin to Charlie lining up Utley/Howard/Ibanez — it gives the other manager free reign to use one pitcher in a platoon advantage to pitch to a large chunk of a lineup. That can be huge late in a close game.

by PhillyFriar on Oct 21, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see your point

But it’s not like the Phillies have a left hander in the bullpen now who is lights out against lefties. Happ has walked two of the three batters he’s faced. And didn’t Eyre give up a hit to Thome, and has otherwise not been teribly effective. Plus, if Park, Madson or Lidge is in the game and throwing well, I suspect Charlie won’t be making all that many lefty substitutions — although I must say, to his credit, he’s become much less predictable than he was earlier in the year when the pitchers seemed to have designated innings.

by MJW on Oct 21, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

cant reply?!

by Bilzo on Oct 21, 2009 11:10 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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