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Dodgers vs Phillies, Game #5 Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Dodgers and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Tuesday at 6:30PM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
LAN PHI V.Padilla vs C.Hamels
PHI 56.71%
59.88%
55%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The Phillies are moderate favorites to close out the series in five games.  AccuScore and Vegas are giving the Phillies a win probability between 55 and 57 percent, while my simulator is singing a more optimistic tune for the Phillies, with the Phillies nearly tipping the 60% win probability plateau.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 PHI 3-2
2 PHI 4-3
3 PHI 5-4
4 LAN 3-2
5 LAN 4-3
6 PHI 2-1
7 PHI 4-2
8 PHI 6-5
9 LAN 5-4
10 PHI 5-3
11 PHI 3-1
12 PHI 4-1
13 PHI 5-2
14 LAN 4-2
15 LAN 2-1
16 PHI 5-1
17 LAN 5-3
18 PHI 6-3
19 LAN 3-1
20 PHI 6-4
21 PHI 6-2
22 LAN 5-2
23 LAN 6-4
24 LAN 6-5
25 PHI 7-6
26 PHI 6-1
27 PHI 3-0
28 LAN 6-3
29 LAN 4-1
30 PHI 2-0
31 PHI 4-0
32 PHI 1-0
33 PHI 7-4
34 PHI 7-2
35 PHI 7-3
36 LAN 5-1
37 PHI 7-5
38 PHI 5-0
39 LAN 6-2
40 PHI 7-1
41 LAN 7-5
42 LAN 7-3
43 PHI 6-0
44 LAN 7-4
45 PHI 8-3
46 LAN 7-6
47 LAN 3-0
48 PHI 8-2
49 PHI 8-1
50 LAN 7-2

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
V.Padilla
6.5
4.683
2.369
1.055
1.398
4.971
C.Hamels
7.1
6.387
1.604
0.825
1.172
3.588

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 R.Furcal .3068
J.Rollins
.3401
2 R.Belliard
.3133
S.Victorino
.3468
3 A.Ethier .3097
C.Utley
.3845
4 M.Ramirez .3675
R.Howard
.3974
5 M.Kemp
.3382
J.Werth
.3627
6 J.Loney
.2988
R.Ibanez
.3668
7 C.Blake
.3125
P.Feliz
.3019
8 R.Martin .2981
C.Ruiz
.3081
9 V.Padilla
.1381
C.Hamels
.1510

 







0 recs  |  Comment 19 comments  |  Add comment

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Comments

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Punk

You’re a Dodgers fan. Just saw your posts on TrueBlueLa praying for good luck for them to rescue the season. As a stats guy, I didn’t think you put to much into the concept of “luck”

by Boundforbeach on Oct 21, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don’t have any objection to Dodgers fans visiting us to engage in intelligent discussion. They’re within their rights to root for their team just like we root for ours. The problem I have with these stupid simulators is that they’re basically meaningless spam.

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2009 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I asked him that on his game 4 simulator post. He didn’t respond. Basically, what’s his angle, if any, in posting this simulator? His name links to a website. If this is all for fun and just a way to pass some time, then great. We can all take it for what’s its worth. But if this is “spam” or a way to derive commercial gain, then he should post elsewhere.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 21, 2009 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think there can be such a thing as non-profit spam, but other people’s definitions may vary.

by taco pal on Oct 21, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s not a big deal. You need to take any kind of simulation like this with a grain of salt. If it doesn’t float your boat, that’s fine, but he’s not doing anything wrong.

http://www.thegoodphight.com

by WholeCamels on Oct 21, 2009 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Seriously, Xei, you should keep the location of this simulator close to the vest. Otherwise, it’s going to meet a fate similar to that of the fax machine in Office Space.

Steve Jeltz
.210/.308/.268
"I am a Matt Stairs fan. I celebrate his entire catalogue."

by Steve Jeltz on Oct 21, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Redundancy

The top three scores every game have been either the Phils or dodgers winning a one-run game of 5-4, 4-3, or 3-2.

not digging this sim, but nobody’s forcing me to click on it and read.

rt,bilzo

by Bilzo on Oct 21, 2009 3:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

rt?

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Oct 21, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

respect “this”?

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 21, 2009 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

everytime I respond to a xeifrank post, I mock his signoff with “(twoletters),bilzo”

this time, I decided against random, and went with my wife and mine’s acronym for something stupid (which I will concede is a bit tasteless and not pc).
rt=ReTarded

fo,Bilzo

by Bilzo on Oct 21, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would guess that given the nature of baseball and the parity of talent at the major league level, the most likely outcome of most matchups would be a one-run game.

by phatj on Oct 21, 2009 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

Read the “great article” in the intro paragraph to this FP.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 21, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

84th most likely score hits

Next sim for you guys will be Game #1 of the W.S.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sounds about right

didn’t expect that high scoring of a game.

by Screen Name 20 on Oct 22, 2009 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

World Series

Preliminary simulation of Game #1 W.S., (Lee vs Sabathia) has the Yankees with a 56.9% win probability.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 22, 2009 1:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs


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