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The Key to the NLCS:  Runs, Runs, and More Runs

Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth swings on a pitch to hit a solo home run against Los Angeles Dodgers' Hong-Chih Kuo in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the National League Championship baseball series Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009, in Philadelphia (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

29 days ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth swings on a pitch to hit a solo home run against Los Angeles Dodgers' Hong-Chih Kuo in the seventh inning of Game 5 of the National League Championship baseball series Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2009, in Philadelphia (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Sure the Phillies got great pitching from Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez.  And their bullpen looked like a major league bullpen rather than the AA bullpen we saw much of the year.  But the reason the Phillies pummeled the Dodgers once again in the NLCS this year was that the Phillies scored runs, runs, and more runs.

Over the course of the five games of the NLCS, the Phillies outscored the Dodgers 35-16.  There are two important ways to put this in perspective.

First, scoring 35 runs against the Dodgers over the course of five games was unprecedented this year.  Literally.  The Dodgers had the best ERA in baseball this year at 3.41.  They were tied with the Giants for allowing the least runs, only allowing 611 all year.  To put that number in perspective, the Phillies were the seventh best in baseball and allowed 98 more runs than the Dodgers.  This Dodgers' pitching staff was the best in baseball.

In fact, they were so good, that the most runs they allowed all year over the course of five consecutive games was 33.  They did that only once, from July 24 to July 28 against the Marlins and Cardinals, allowing 6, 3, 8, 6, and 10 runs over five games.  The Phillies bested this Dodgers-worst performance by 2 runs.  So much for good pitching beating good hitting in the playoffs.

Second, the Phillies hadn't scored this prolifically in the last month and a half of the season.  The Phillies had several stretches this season of scoring 35 runs over the course of five games.  Their best stretch was scoring 46 runs from April 24 through April 28 against the Marlins and Nationals (7, 6, 13, 13, and 7).  They also had 5-game stretches of 37, 40, 39, and 35 (not counting overlapping stretches).  This makes sense for a team that scored 820 runs, the most runs in the NL and the fourth most in baseball.

However, as we all witnessed, the Phillies' offense was not dominant down the stretch.  As evidence of this, the Phillies hadn't scored 35 runs over the course of 5 games since their 35 runs from August 19 through august 23 (against the Diamondbacks and Mets).  From August 24 to the end of the season, the Phillies averaged only 4.4 runs per game.  The best 5 game stretch they had was 31 runs from September 8 through September 12 (and September 9 through September 13).

So, the 35 runs the Phillies scored against the Dodgers were completely unexpected, as the Phillies did it against the best pitching staff in the majors and even though the Phillies' hitters had been slumping offensively for the past month and a half.  Which just makes this NLCS even more amazing.

[UPDATE: According to mlb.com, the 35 runs is the most for any 5 game LCS ever.]

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I’d argue there’s still a bit of a slump. Were it not for all of the walks and HBPs, the Phillies would have had a hard time winning. Admittedly that shows good plate discipline, but the Phillies bats weren’t exactly on fire, we just made the Dodgers pay for every mistake they made.

Fortunately, the WS will be played in the 2 top parks in baseball for HRs. But a .230 BA against the Yankees could be major trouble.

by Cormican on Oct 22, 2009 11:01 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Proves BA is worthless

But this is exactly why batting average is a pretty worthless stat. Even though Dodgers had a better batting average (just barely – .232 to .231), the Phillies were on base much more (.348 to .287) and moved guys around the bases much better (.500 SLG compared to just .360). These are the stats that get at how you score runs. Batting average, by itself, doesn’t.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 22, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait what? Walks are exactly what a slump calls for. They are slump busters.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 22, 2009 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Abreu Apologist

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 22, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sort of gives the lie to the old chestnut about how Good Pitching Always Beats Good Hitting, eh?

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Exactly

Which is why I wrote: “So much for good pitching beating good hitting in the playoffs.” :)

by David S. Cohen on Oct 22, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

CRAP stands for something completely different.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 22, 2009 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Phillies plate discipline was awesome !!!

Phillies will have a hard time beating the Yankees, but that is why you want to play the best - if they can win back-to-back World Series , we will be the team of the decade !!!!

by Brzyski R on Oct 22, 2009 12:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

OMG

If you have 15 minutes to waste and want to laugh your ass off, you have to go and look at the lastest post and comments on mcoveychronicles. It is just too funny. Almost every post says “Suck it Russell Martin.” They posted a picture of a dejected Russell Martin and it got 72 rec’s.

I had no idea they hated the Dodgers this much. It makes my hatred of all things Mets seem just amateur.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 22, 2009 1:34 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

+1

That’s what I thought. I don’t hate any team with the passion they have for the Dodgers. Although I do share their opinion on Martin. He’s really come up small now two years running for all his whining.

by doubleh on Oct 22, 2009 2:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bizarrely enough, they seem waaaay more excited on their blog about the Phils winning than this blog does. They have epic hatred for the blue.

by Cormican on Oct 22, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the enemy of my enemy?

"I tried to run him over but Eli had his big boy pads on and he kind of stopped me from getting in the end zone. The next time I’ll try to jump over his head.’’ - Asante Samuel

by foos05 on Oct 22, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It’s a little scary, to be honest. Though in a good way.

by taco pal on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we’re less excited because our team’s job isn’t over yet. For them, the Dodgers losing is the high point – whoever wins the Series, it isn’t LA. For us, the Series still matters.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 23, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hope they thank us by extending their subheadline

Currently, it’s “Temporarily honoring Steve Carlton until the NLCS is over”. Since we thrashed the Dodgers, they can extend that through the World Series at the very least. :)

by wildcatlh on Oct 22, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Braves die-hard here...

and I just wanted to congratulate you all on your team making it to the WS for a 2nd consecutive year. Quite the accomplishment in this era!

It looks like you guys will be playing those Damn Yankees, and if that’s the case, I hope you kick their butts!

Tigers love pepper; they hate cinnamon.

by Jareth Cutestory on Oct 22, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

damn you...

You just had to be classy and nice. I’m trying to work up a passionate hatred of the Mets and Braves like those guys at mcoverychronicles have for the Dodgers. And you just set me way back with those very kind remarks. (Oh, and thanks by the way)

by Boundforbeach on Oct 22, 2009 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Something this post neglects to mention is something that I believe will be key to beating the Yankees: scoring early and often. They scored 9 runs in the first inning (25.7%) and 12 in innings 1 through 3 (34.2%). If they are able to jump out to big leads early in New York, expect another clinch in Philly.

by PhillyFan20XX on Oct 22, 2009 6:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Never doubt the Phillies. Wow i hate how all of the so called experts always pick mets to win in the beginning of the year and always pick the phillies to lose, like in sports illustrated some guy picked the phillies to lose to the rockies and the dodgers. like are u serious????? Go PHILS

eff you we winning anyway

by eagleswin on Oct 22, 2009 8:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Who cares what the experts pick – ever?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 22, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yankees lose

and are one more loss away from having to use Sabathia, which would push him back to Game #2 on short rest, or Game #3 on full rest. Plus if it goes seven games, the Angels still have a good shot at taking this.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 23, 2009 12:33 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm rooting for a game 7

I’d rather get Burnett or Petite 3x’s than getting Sabbathia 3x’s.

by Cormican on Oct 23, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think we’d be more likely to get Gaudin for one.

by taco pal on Oct 23, 2009 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs


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