So, with the probable impending date with the Evil Empire, what are you guys feeling for a rotation?  It's obvious that right now Cliff is the man, but do we want to start him in Game 1?  Let's look at this carefully...  The Yankees are using a three man rotation, assuming we use the same rotation we used in the NLCS, the matchups would look like this:

• Sabathia vs. Lee
• AJ vs. Cole
  
• Pettite vs. Pedro
• CC vs. Cupcakes
• AJ vs. Lee
• Pettite vs. Cole
  
• CC vs. Pedro

Let's be honest...  Games 1 is a toss up and right now AJ looks sharper than Cole.  Throw in that Pedro will be a bit of a wild card in Game 3, and then we get CC versus Cakes in Game 4.  I'm not really feeling this.  However, if we start Cole in Game 1, I think we have a better pitching matchup for the series as a whole:

• Sabathia vs.Cole
• AJ vs. Lee
  
• Pettite vs. Pedro
• CC vs. Cupcakes
• AJ vs.Cole
• Pettite vs. Lee
  
• CC vs. Pedro

The goal for Games 1 and 2 should be a split.  I'd rather take our chances, and perhaps put the chips on Game 2, where Lee should have an advantage over AJ.  If we split and go to Philly 1-1, good.  If Cole puts together a gem in Game 1 and we steal that too, even better.  I'd look to exploit Game 2 and hope that Pedro shows up in Game 3.  I think we have the advantage if we're 2-2 when we roll around to Games 5 and 6.  Hopefully we get a good performance from Cole in Game 5 versus AJ and Lee should be able to outlast Andy in 6. 

Thoughts?

Additionally, I've been thinking about the Cole Hamels situation.  Now, I'm going to throw out an theory which I neither have the time, resources, or talent to test.  But if you do, by all means please follow through.  We've looked at metrics over and over to show that, besides a hugely inflated BABIP, Cole is the same pitcher.  Well, I think that's exactly the problem; he's the same exact pitcher as last year and the opposition has adjusted.

We've been assuming that the inflated BABIP is due to a mixture of luck and some defensive lapses, but other than luck, what affects BABIP?  I say the quality of swing and contact on the pitch that's put in play.  So is it just luck that the little grounders to Jimmy and Chase from last year are now shots in the hole?  Is it luck that the lazy outfield flies are now gap shots?  Or is it that Cole has become so predictable that the opposition can sit on pitches in certain counts and put better quality swings on the pitch?  I think this might be the case...  which would explain why all of the other metrics are the same as well.

There's a way to test this, but it would take some work.  I think this problem is most prevalent on the following counts: 2-0, 1-2, and 0-2.  Practically everyone knows Cole loves the 2-0 change up.  If I can sit at home and call it, do you think the hitter knows its coming?  He's fallen in love with it.  What about 1-2 and 0-2 you say?  I've noticed that Cole is giving up lots of hits (especially HRs) in pitchers counts.  Again he's predictable.  He doesn't mix in the curve enough and his change is his bread and butter for his put away pitch and when down 2-0.  I know it's coming, and so does everyone else.  His fastball isn't overpowering, so I think they're sitting on the change in these three counts and just fouling off fastballs until they get it.

Anyone have the tools and the talent to take a look at Cole's pitch selection in those three counts this year versus last year and the BABIP as well?  Something tells me that when hitters had more guessing to do last year, the BABIP was way down here.  Also, I would bet his pitch selection in these counts is similar, but the BABIP is huge.  And that's especially bad for 1-2 and 0-2 counts where he should have the advantage.

Thoughts?