Phillies Breakfast Links, October 23, 2009: Rocko the Drunken Mummer, Angels Force Game 6, Throwing Haymakers

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 23, 2009 6:36 AM EDT Comment 56 comments

Wild affair goes Halos' way to send ALCS back to Bronx

No matter who you may be rooting for in the ALCS (and let's face it, after yesterday's bloviating, how cool would it be if the Angels ultimately beat the Yankees), you have to want the winner to be completely spent. Games like last night only help the cause. But they do give an indication of how chippy things will get around the strike zone.

It was quite a seventh inning. Last night the Halos had what we were having in the 9th inning of game 4.

Rocko the Drunken Mummer Postgame Interview. If you're an Inquirer subscriber, Rocko Rounbehler of Port Richmond also got a huge color photo of himself on the front page wraparound. But he and his distinctive patois are way better live.

So you like that, huh? Wait, there's more. Jackass: The Phillies Fan

Stay classy, Phillies fans. NBC-10 reporter Claudia Rivera did not go to on-the-scene live reporter school for this!

After all, What's Not to Like about the Phillies? I put this one up in the comments thread yesterday, but it bears repeating. And another I posted--although the premise is, well, questionable, this quote of the day is the best haymaker I've seen thrown toward Yankeedom.

"Martinez tried to deflect questions about facing his former rival while dodging champagne sprays and beer showers in the postgame celebration Wednesday, but couldn’t resist when a reporter said, “Pedro, you have a long history with the Yankees.” He stopped, leaned in and said, “No, the Yankees have a long history with me.”"

Afternoon update: Lee, Sabathia swapping texts. Ah, the truncated erudition that correspondence must be. C.C.: UR TEAM SUX Cliff: U R DED 2 ME. Plus, Notes from

Why, oh why, did the Phillies win? Poor Joe Sheehan picks through the detrius over at Prospectus. Apparently Charlie Manuel managed...better!

More, always more, below --and as we've been doing this week, feel free to linky link in with your own in the comments.

A Lineup of Change for Postseason Broadcasts. Why? Does anyone out there think they need to improve? ::ducks::

L'Affaire Steve Phillips. So apparently this has happened before, which makes you question his people selection skills. It's a really bad time to be a Mets fan. I cares not.

Bombers Beware: These Guys Are Dangerous. News flash: the Phillies get credit because they are essentially an AL team in disguise. It's a fifth column thing!

Expect a veteran crew of umpires for the World Series. I guess orienting all the new guys during the playoffs wasn't MLB's HR department's best idear.

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Get Your AL Championship Merchandise At Modell's Today...

That was a radio ad I heard this AM on WCBS (Yanks’ flagship station).

by EastFallowfield on Oct 23, 2009 7:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Spent

The only thing a longer series will do to hurt the Yankees or Angels chances of winning is if Sabathia has to pitch again. If so, he may have trouble turning around to pitch by Game #2. I don’t think with the W.S. starting mid week that either AL team will be “spent”. I’d rather be keeping my skills sharp than not playing for 7 days. Tiring out Sabathia is really the only benefit of an extension of the ALCS to the Phillies imho.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 23, 2009 10:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Right, but that’s along the lines of “aside from that, how did you like the play Mrs. Lincoln?” If the Yankees win in 7, C.C. will be unable to make more than two starts under any circumstances, and his first start will either be his third straight on three days rest, or it will be in the unfriendly confines of CBP. That’s not a small thing.

by taco pal on Oct 23, 2009 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very respectfully disagree. Keep in mind that Pettitte is 37 I believe, and he is the Pitcher for Game 6. Also, the Yankees presumably intend to go with a 3 man rotation in the WS if they get there, and having Pettitte on shortened rest for multiple games will not be ideal. I agree, though, that this is not a bid deal. There also is certainly the possibility of emotional gains from a longer series, such that if it were too easy the Yankees might subconsciously lax up a little, and if the Angels come back to win they will be very pumped, and perhaps more resilient in the face of adversity shoudl such things happen in the WS.

If the Yankees were using a 4 man rotation, I think it would be a pretty much non issue, but as they are using a 3 man rotation, any extra games they play have a much greater chance of interfering with quality of there starting pitchers.

I would not place a bet because of something like this, but it is not entirely a non issue.

by Whack8888 on Oct 23, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, doing a quick survey of Yankee Presumed Starters, there is a pretty sizable drop off from CC to anyone else.

Regular Season Stats (unfortunately, Yahoo, from where I get this information does not combine the regular season and post season stats)
CC: ERA 3.37 WHIP 1.15

Burnett: ERA 4.04 WHIP 1.40

Pettitte: ERA 4.16 WHIP 1.38

For comparison, Phillies WHIPS are 1.22 (LEE), 1.25 (Martinez), 1.29 (Hamels) and 1.32 (Blanton)

Aside from Hamels high ERA, the ERAs pretty much fall in line with what you would expect.

There is much less of a drop off from Phillies Starter to Starter than there is from CC to other Yankees starters. Having CC only pitch 2 games would actually be, from this limited statistical analysis, pretty huge.

by Whack8888 on Oct 23, 2009 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What does a more important stat like FIP say?
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 23, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don’t really care what FIP says. Does it say the Dodgers are sitting at home while the Phils play on? Does it say JA Happ doesn’t deserve ROY? Does it say Cole Hamels is unlucky?

(I’ll refrain from taunting Dodgers fan on their own website, that’s not cool. But when one of them comes over here, it’s open season).

nr,Bilzo

by Bilzo on Oct 23, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hehe, I guess I might as well have looked it up orginally since I am going to do it now, but I was hoping not to spend so much time on this. I wish it were Wednesday ;)

FIP (From FanGraphs)

CC Sabathia: 3.39

Pettitte: 4.15

AJ Burnett; 4.33

Phils,

Lee: 3.11

Hamels: 3.72

Martinez: 4.28

Blanton: 4.45

So, I guess FIP wise the drop off may be more extreme for the Phillies after all. I am not so sure FIP is the best stat to use for this comparison however (as opposed to evaluating pitchers for contracts etc) because the Defense the two teams have used for most of the year will be the same one they use for the potential upcoming World Series match up.

It could be that the Yankees pitchers are objectively better, but the Yankees defense is objectively worse. To say that the Yankees have an advantage pitching wise is a little bit theoretical (in a bad sense), since the overall effects of the pitching will be less good.

Going to the original point, that the Yankees pitching has a greater drop off after Sabathia, it is possible that the Phillies defense simply covers up warts, if you will, of their inferior pitching such that the objectively greater drop off in pitching is lessoned. I have little knowledge of Yankees pitchers, so I am not sure if poor infield defense would cause a high % ground ball pitcher to be better objectively but worse with the Defense he uses. To my knowledge, this wouldnt come up in FIP anyway, but I think you get the point.

As an aside, I am a big fan of WHIP, is there any reason nobody uses this stat much?

I have no idea how tRA is calculated, but perhaps that would be a fairer comparison.

by Whack8888 on Oct 23, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

DON'T USE FIP

FIP is subject to most of the biases that ERA is. Use either xFIP or QERA. Both generally yield similar results. If you look at that, you can actually see how well a pitcher does. FIP uses HR/9 which is a statistic that varies wildly year to year and month to month. You want something stable like groundball and flyball rates. That’s why xFIP and QERA are the way to go. Using that, you’ll get a better sense of the skill level of a pitcher rather than just eliminating BABIP luck and stopping there. I don’t trust tRA because it assumes that all batted ball types don’t vary within category and because line drive rate for pitchers is not a useful statistic (it varies so much and has no year-to-year correlation).

Here’s the QERA results:

Lee 3.75
Hamels 3.63
Martinez 3.94
Blanton 4.09

Sabathia 3.84
Burnett 4.33
Pettitte 4.60
Gaudin 4.51

Of course, Sabathia’s value largely comes from his durability which QERA doesn’t measure, and he also had somewhat of an off-year from QERA perspective so he should be better than Lee and Hamels. Still, this paints a far clearer picture of their ACTUAL value than FIP or ERA. WHIP has become kind of a defunct stat when the Hit part was revealed to be luck/defense/opponents hitting skill primarily.

by Matt Swartz on Oct 23, 2009 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks a lot for the excellent and informative info.

It is interesting to see that QERA does tend to support my initial hypothesis, based on admittedly inferior stats, that the Yankees have a much bigger drop off from CC to others than the Phillies do from Lee/Hamels to others, especially since FIP (and i believe tRA would have as well) would tend to disprove that hypothesis.

by Whack8888 on Oct 23, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

informative info, haha, I wish it were Wednesday!

by Whack8888 on Oct 23, 2009 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LD/BIA for pitchers has a yty r of 0.4 or so

by Graham on Oct 23, 2009 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And tRA doesn't assume that there's no variation in batted balls in a certain bucket, it just assumes that the variation doesn't really matter

by Graham on Oct 23, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LD?BIA? Try LD/BIP.

LD/BIA is an arbitrary statistic. Of course it varies. Because groundball/flyball ratio varies. The acutal LD/BIP rate is the only thing that matters. If all pitchers allow 20% line drives, but some allow 50% groundballs and 30% flyballs and others allow 30% groundball and 50% flyballs, then LD/BIP is 20% for both of them but for the groundball pitcher it is 40% and for the fyball pitcher it is 29%. You’re picking up another effect and calling it line drive rate.

If there is variation in BABIP or SLGBIP on batted balls among pitchers that is persistent, than tRA doesn’t matter. This is especially true for park effects on the determination between Line Drives and Fly Balls, as Brian Cartwright has shown there is at FanGraphs.

by Matt Swartz on Oct 23, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dear Matt:

I am not an idiot. I have reasons for doing things that apparently you haven’t even considered.

Hearts,
Graham

by Graham on Oct 24, 2009 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are other possibilities.

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 24, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Sheehan is 1-4 so far predicting the Playoff series.

by Cormican on Oct 23, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

In the fine tradition of sabermeticians eschewing results in favor of methods.

In all seriousness though, it doesn’t really matter. Any idiot can pick a playoff series right, he has about a 1 in 2 shot of getting it right based entirely on which team name he likes better. I’d imagine Joe Sheehan arrived at his predictions in a slightly more sound way than, say, Jim Caple did. Though I’m sure Jim was rigorous when he said “Dodgers in 5 ’cause I like them better.”

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Burnett has so-so lifetime numbers against the Philies’ current lineup. Pettitte’s numbers are better. Small sample sizes though, for the most part.

Interestingly, and amusingly, Carlos Ruiz has posted OPS’s of 3.000 and 2.333, respectively, with a home run against both. Will Señor Octubre also be Señor Noviembre? (He’s only faced them three times each though.)

by taco pal on Oct 23, 2009 11:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What's history say?

How’s he performed in past Novembers? :)

by David S. Cohen on Oct 23, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s perfect! Never been retired!

by taco pal on Oct 23, 2009 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I may have to swear off reading about Yankee fans’ sense of entitlement for the next week and half. A man my age should not have blood pressure issues.

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps we’re showing the Angels the same disrespect that some Yankee-philes have been showing us, by making the assumptions we’re making. I’ll try to do better going forward.

by taco pal on Oct 23, 2009 11:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Maybe, but it is difficult to expect a team to win consecutive games at a hostile field. I would prefer the Angels just from the “I hate them less” standpoint, but I don’t expect it.

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 23, 2009 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dunno

See: 2003 Florida Marlins. See also: 2004 Boston Red Sox.

by wildcatlh on Oct 23, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just thought I won an argument with a "friend" who's a Yankee fan

Then he sent me this.

There are some things you just can’t argue with.

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He sent you a red X?

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 23, 2009 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, bummer. You guys don’t have access to my Gmail account. Probably should’ve figured that.

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that better?

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

strangest, almost creepiest photoshop job I’ve ever seen.

by David S. Cohen on Oct 23, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The points he loses on editing quality he more than makes up in creepiness.

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone have any eye bleach?

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 23, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your Yankees friend has an imagination Freud would love (and too much free time).

by Cormican on Oct 23, 2009 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t get it. What’s wrong with that?

by taco pal on Oct 23, 2009 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m still more disturbed by the picture of Charlie Manuel embracing Dallas Green ::shudders::

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 23, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know I'm late due to the waiting period after registering...

But I wanted to congratulate this team on the amazing series against the Dodgers and the fantastic run these past two years. The Phillies are incredibly scary looking right now, and while I hope to no end that my Angels make it past the Yankees, I certainly know it would get no easier in the next series.

Enjoy yourselves! Celebrate responsibly. And good luck next series, either way.

It could happen! Let's do this for Nick Adenhart, Courtney Stewart, and Henry Pearson.

by AlanFalcon on Oct 23, 2009 1:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No need to celebrate responsibly, the city has greased all of the lamp posts on Broad Street. So even if we wanted to be irresponsible, we’d just end up with grease stains on the arms of our jerseys.

Damned ingenious. If I plan on climbing a light post I’ll make sure I bring dish detergent and a sponge.

Thanks for the well wishes.

by Steve J on Oct 23, 2009 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sitting vs. Playing

more linkys from afield (thank you loyal fans)
See:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/tom_verducci/10/23/five.cuts/1.html#ixzz0UmMndPMt

5. Is there such a thing as too much rest for a pennant winner heading into the World Series? As the the National League champion Phillies face six days off entering the Fall Classic, no doubt you’ll hear a lot in these days about how the 2007 Rockies were cooled off by too many off-days heading into the World Series. Actually, the results of how teams fare with this much rest leads to no conclusion at all.

This is the fourth straight year in which a team will enter the World Series with six days off — underscoring the obvious problem with the postseason schedule — and the sixth time since the three-round format first was used in 1995. The results tell you that the extra rest means nothing in particular. Teams with at least six days off are 2-3 in World Series Game 1 and 3-2 in the Series.

Team Days Off Game 1 Series
1995 Braves 6 Won Won
1996 Yankees 6 Lost Won
2006 Tigers 6 Lost Lost
2007 Rockies 8 Lost Lost
2008 Phillies 6 Won Won
2009 Phillies 6 ? ?

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 23, 2009 2:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rockies are a bad example

8 days is a really long layoff. Weren’t the Rockies going and playing games against AFL teams to try to stay sharp? I swear I remember hearing that.

by Cormican on Oct 23, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Tigers are somewhat of a bad example as they were so ecstatic to be in the World Series and to beat NY. I remember there celebrations were pretty wild, which of course there is nothing wrong with that and maybe I am making bad interpretations, but I think that that has more of a factor for a team cooling off than the rest. A determined team will more than likely maintain that determination over the course of a week, but a team that is already celebrating its accomplishments is probably in trouble.

Might also just be the talent levels of the teams ;)

by Whack8888 on Oct 23, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not very different from last year's LCS

The days of the week and the sequences are almost exactly the same as last year:
2008 Phillies won games 1,2,4,5, ending on Wednesday.
2009 Phillies won games 1,3,4,5, ending on Wednesday.
2008 Rays won games 2,3,4. Leading 3-1 on Thursday they lost (blew a 7-0 lead). Also lost at home in game 6, before winning in game 7 on Sunday.
2009 Yankees won games 1,2,4. Leading 3-1 on Thursday they lost (blew a 6-4 lead). At home for game 6?
The one difference I see if that series goes seven games: last year many observers, including me, thought the Red Sox would complete another comeback from down 3-1 and would be a tougher opponent in the World Series. Didn’t happen. This year, even if the Angels get to game 7 I doubt that most observers will expect them to win the LCS, and my expectation is that the Yankees would still be a tougher opponent than the Angels.

by phillyinportland on Oct 23, 2009 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Afternoon updates

Notes from the workout. No word on whether Phils will have a simulated ticket sale for the simulated game on Sunday. I wonder how Chollie feels about pitching Pedro home or at (potentially) N.Y.

Montgomery wants to play the best-the Yankees. I hope for his sake that the best don’t turn out to be the Angels, who would cheerfully use this against his team in their lockerroom. Give the man credit for not hedging.

Lee and Sabathia texting. Oh, the thumbed erudition of that correspondence. Sabathia: UR TEEM SUX Lee: U R DED 2 ME

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 23, 2009 4:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

link fail on Montgomery article.

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 24, 2009 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reppin section 137!

yeah, the mummer and his sign were running shit in section 137. what an awesome night. TAKE A SHOW-ER

by spacab on Oct 23, 2009 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Another point of view

The Hardball Times covers history and current series about equally from what I’ve seen. This article gives an overview of the LCS, no surprises of course. This sentence about sums it up: For five games, the entire Dodgers pitching staff looked scared and outmatched by this dynamic Philadelphia offense.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/why-the-philles-beat-the-dodgers/

by phillyinportland on Oct 23, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

super article, recommended reading. Thanks for including. The quote by Ramirez noted at the bottom is here:

"I think everybody did a great job," Ramirez said. "Last year was a learning experience for a lot of players. They came back. They played great. But we didn’t come through this year. We were playing a better team."

by Wet Luzinski on Oct 24, 2009 6:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I

really hate mummers.

by lpfist on Oct 24, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hey just for the record

Is there a consensus here over who is better, Utley or Howard?

Hope got in my eyes

by RockiesMagicNumber on Oct 24, 2009 4:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Utley

No question. He might be a better overall hitter, and he does it while playing a Gold Glove-caliber 2B (even without the recognition).

by phatj on Oct 24, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah ok I agree

Purple Row just did our NL MVP votes (6 of the 7 site writers voted) and I’m enjoying yet another “BUT RYAN HOWARD RIBBIES” conversation, I just wanted to see what the thought was over in Phillies land.

Hope got in my eyes

by RockiesMagicNumber on Oct 24, 2009 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think, instead of talking about his RBIs if you look at his power numbers, ie, doubles, HRs and even Triples this year, which will generally lead to more RBIs, you can see why Howard might be given a little bit higher consideration for something like MVP.

Also, Howard’s defense is no longer a liablility.

They are both good players, and I honestly wouldnt know who to say is the top player.

by Whack8888 on Oct 24, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

supposed to be a reply to RockiesMagicNumber

by Whack8888 on Oct 24, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As long as he doesn’t have to throw to second base ryan howrds defense isn’t a liability.

But Utley is still better, when you factor in the position played in my opinion

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 24, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I didnt even think about that, and Utley, compared to other 2nd baseman these days is pretty easily on top. There are, on the other hand, quite a few 1st baseman who do what Howard does, if not better.

by Whack8888 on Oct 24, 2009 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs