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World Series Simulation, Game #2

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and Yankees using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 10:30AM)

 

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
PHI NYA P.Martinez vs A.Burnett NYA 66.10% 58.48% 58%

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... The simulator and AccuScore are in pretty good agreement as to the level the Yankees should be favored.  Meanwhile, Vegas is once again drinking the Yankees kool-aid.  I think the Vegas line is the way it is due to the pressure on the Yankees to win this game.  More of a psychological than a logical reason.

 

Top 50 Most Likely Scores

1 NYA 4-3
2 NYA 3-2
3 NYA 5-4
4 NYA 2-1
5 NYA 4-2
6 PHI 4-3
7 PHI 3-2
8 NYA 6-5
9 NYA 3-1
10 PHI 5-4
11 NYA 5-3
12 PHI 4-2
13 NYA 5-2
14 NYA 4-1
15 NYA 6-4
16 NYA 6-3
17 PHI 2-1
18 PHI 3-1
19 NYA 7-6
20 PHI 5-3
21 PHI 6-5
22 NYA 5-1
23 PHI 5-2
24 PHI 6-4
25 NYA 6-2
26 NYA 1-0
27 PHI 6-3
28 NYA 6-1
29 NYA 7-4
30 PHI 4-1
31 NYA 4-0
32 NYA 2-0
33 NYA 3-0
34 NYA 7-5
35 NYA 7-2
36 PHI 7-5
37 NYA 7-3
38 PHI 7-4
39 PHI 7-3
40 PHI 6-2
41 PHI 5-1
42 NYA 7-1
43 PHI 7-6
44 PHI 7-2
45 NYA 8-7
46 NYA 5-0
47 PHI 2-0
48 PHI 6-1
49 NYA 8-3
50 NYA 8-2

 

Game Pitching Results

Pitcher IP SO BB HR WHIP FIP
P.Martinez 6.7 3.978 2.371 1.132 1.349 5.283
A.Burnett 6.7 5.957 3.274 0.864 1.284 4.567

 


Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.

Simulation Lineups
  Name wOBA Name wOBA
1 J.Rollins .2822 D.Jeter .3142
2 S.Victorino .2857 J.Damon .3287
3 C.Utley .3256 M.Teixeira .3693
4 R.Howard .3333 A.Rodriguez .3700
5 J.Werth .2993 H.Matsui .3454
6 R.Ibanez .3090 R.Cano .3155
7 M.Stairs .2932 N.Swisher .3406
8 P.Feliz .2481 M.Cabrera .2930
9 C.Ruiz .2658 J.Molina .2350

0 recs  |  Comment 9 comments

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Shouldn’t Jose Molina be starting at catcher for the Yankees with Burnett pitching?

by yosoysean on Oct 29, 2009 5:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, good call. I dropped the ball on that one. Probably should drop 1% from the Yankees win probability on the sim. Won’t have time to rerun before game time.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2009 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

you’ve got the wrong Pedro being DH’ed for. Feliz is playing the field and not taking a bat today. Martinez is going to hit.

by Bilzo on Oct 29, 2009 11:28 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no significant effect on the results of the game ;)

"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"

by The Dark on Oct 29, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re-Simming

I am currently re running the simulation with Molina in for Posada. The results will be more in line with what AccuScore has. Meanwhile, the Vegas line is moving more and more towards the Yankees.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2009 12:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

New Simulation

with Jose Molina in the lineup for Posada. Molina is a really bad hitter by the way. Simulation results and AccuScore are on par now, with Vegas being the outlier.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Line-up is still wrong thanks to Jerry Hairston starting in RF instead of Swisher ;)

by yosoysean on Oct 29, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes. But should be close enough. :)
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Score #9 Hits

… Game #3 simulation will be up later.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Oct 29, 2009 11:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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