This Game Is Easy: Hit a Little, Pitch a Little, and You'll Win
by David S. Cohen on Oct 29, 2009 3:44 PM EDT
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PrintLast night was a perfect capsule of the Phillies' post-season so far. They hit, they pitched, and they won. It really is an easy game, isn't it?
It's actually quite remarkable how dominant the Phillies' all-around game has been so far this post-season. In almost every important stat, the Phillies are at or near the top for the post-season, often much better than the Yankees.
Starting with the hitting, the Phillies have been heads above the competition:
Runs: The Phillies have scored the most runs in the post-season by far -- 61 to the Yankees second-best 49. Both teams have played 10 games, so the Phillies have scored 6.1 runs per game compared to the Yankees' 4.9.
OPS: The Phillies' offense has the highest OPS of the post-season. They entered last night with an .840 OPS compared to the Yankees' .800. After last night, the Phillies were up to .847 and the Yankees down to .767. And remember, the Phillies put up their .840 OPS (entering last night) with their pitcher hitting; the Yankees have not yet had a pitcher hit. Not surprisingly for the two teams in the World Series, these stats are the highest for any of the post-season teams.
BA/OBP/SLG: You could imagine a situation where the Phillies, despite being in the World Series, might not lead all the post-season teams in all of the triple-slash stats. But, that hasn't happened, as the team dominates here too. At .262/.364/.483, the Phillies are tied with the Cardinals for best batting average and lead by healthy margins over the other teams in the other stats. The Yankees' vaunted offense is at .256/.346/.421. Again, the Phillies are outperforming all other teams, including the Yankees, despite the Phillies' pitchers hitting in 9 of the 10 games.
Late innings: What's been quite remarkable about the Phillies' performance is that they have excelled in the late innings. The Phillies have hit .252/.345/.482 in the first 6 innings but ramped it up to .283/.405/.485 from the seventh inning on. Note, in particular, the huge jump in on-base percentage in the late innings for the Phillies. The Twins and the Cardinals had higher batting averages in the late innings, but no team has a better OBP or SLG as the game comes to an end, even considering all the late inning heroics the Yankees have had this October. For comparison, the Yankees' late inning line is .248/.383/.464.
These numbers might not be surprising considering the Phillies are known for their powerful offense. But, the pitching numbers are incredible as well:
Overall: The Phillies' pitchers have the lowest OPS against of any post-season team by a wide margin. The Phillies' pitchers have given up a .633 OPS The Yankees are second at .671. The Phillies also have the lowest ERA (2.73, Yankees second at 2.79), highest strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.18, Twins second at 2.44, Yankees third at 2.39), and lowest WHIP (1.12, Twins second at 1.19, Yankees third at 1.26).
Starters: The Phillies' starters also have the lowest OPS against at .604. The Yankees are second at .614. The Phillies blow away the competition in strikeout-to-walk ratio (a remarkable 5.67, Yankees half that at 2.84) and WHIP (0.97). They are second in ERA at 2.67 compared to the Yankees' 2.55.
Bullpen: Remarkably, the Phillies' bullpen has also dominated. They are second in opponents' OPS at .699 (Dodgers are first at .687, with the Yankees and Mariano Rivera at .786, good for sixth this post-season) and second in ERA at 3.24 (Cardinals in first at 2.08, with Yankees third at 3.34). The peripherals are only middle-of-the-pack, but the results have been great.
All in all, when you hit well and pitch well, you're going to win, which is exactly what the Phillies are doing. Easy.
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now that I’ve made my joke (which I admit isn’t applicable here..)
The one thing that i find must interesting is the late inning performance.
(damnit FM….you’re too fast)
OK, didn’t get it was a joke. Anyway, as for the late inning stuff, yes, that was the big surprise for me too. That .405 OBP in the late innings is incredible.
by David S. Cohen on Oct 29, 2009 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if it is heart/randomness (pick whichever makes you feel better!) or if there is actually some explanation for the post 7th inning skillz. One obvious thing is that they pinch hit, but that would only seemingly explain a small amount of the increase. Also, the pinch hitters havent been much better than the pitchers anyway so far.
Maybe there is something wrong with other teams bull pens that the Phillies are exploiting. Bull pen pitchers tend to have only 1 or 2 good pitches. Maybe the Phils have done a lot of work on sitting on different pitches, or guessing what a guy is going to pitch next or something.
It could simply be emotional, and that explains it. The Phils main gain is in OBP, and I would have to imagine the players are highly focused for the 7th inning of a game or later. Might be something with discipline as well.
It is a very interesting occurrence, and its frequency suggests an explanation of some kind could be found.
as I was saying (before I had to hit POST thanks to FM’s quick response time), the late inning performances are awesome. Not 5 years ago, I always gave up on the team if they were down a couple runs in the 7th inning. In the Colorado game, I honestly thought they could tie that game up. The Dodgers game, didn’t really expect that, but wasn’t aghast that they pulled it off.
Against the Yanks last night when they put Hughes in I started talking to the TV saying, “Ok boy….you got your marginal reliever in. Start piling on”.
And they heard me.
It’s a great feeling expecting the team to score late.
The mention of pitching reminded me of a discussion I had today with a friend about the Yankees pitching. Everyone raves about their bullpen, but their only great pitcher in the pen is Rivera:
Bruney: 3.92 ERA, 1.51 WHIP
Coke: 4.50 ERA,1.07 WHIP
Hughes: 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Joba: 4.75 ERA, 1.54 WHIP
Marte: 9.45 ERA, 1.58 WHIP
Hughes isn’t bad, and Coke looks like he might just be unlucky, but WHIPs over 1.5 aren’t good.
For the Phillies?
Madson: 3.26 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Eyre: 1.50 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Park: 4.43 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
Durbin: 4.39 ERA, 1.48 WHIP
Happ (assuming he comes from the pen): 2.93 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
All of these guys fall between Coke/Hughes and the rest of the Yankees pen for WHIP, but they occupy positions 1, 2, 4, 6, and 7 for ERA – a fair part of that is the Phils’ great fielding, but when the Phillies go to the bullpen, they don’t give up runs like the Yankees do.
"When you make your final stand
I'll be right there
I'll never leave
And all I ask of you is
Believe"
Hairston/Molina
If Hairston and Molina are both starting, the Yankees will have a black hole at the bottom of their lineup. Molina is an awful hitter and the dropoff from Posada to Molina on the offense is rather large. Sure, Swisher has been in a slump this post-season, but we are still talking a rather small sample size of at-bats not enough to put Hairston Jr out in RF. Hairston is not much of a hitter and does not have any platoon advantage against Pedro. Hairston as a RF pretty much throws out the window any value he possibly has. Meanwhile, the so called “smart money” continues to push the Yankees into the stratosphere as favorites to win Game #2.
vr, Xei
Wow, with regards to Posada, Burnett and Posada’s defensive abilities, that is crazy. Does Burnett just hate Poasda’s guts? Is Posada really that bad? I said he was “terrible” last night, but the next day I felt that was more hyperbole. CC didnt really look comfortable with Posada though, and it has to be a pretty big deal if they start Molina and his bat over Posada in the 2nd game of the WS down 1 game!
AS BAD AS LAST NIGHT
and totally unjustifed… but the bookies who cleaned up last night are counting on all those NYY idiots fans thowing all that Money around… after all the NY Post called the Phillies “the Frilles” and you win world series games by name calling right?
Switching catchers
Looking back over the last eight years I can find only one Series-winning team that started a backup catcher in any of the games: in 2001, Rod Barajas of the Diamondbacks started in place of Damian Miller in Game 5 (and hit a homer before Scott Brosius hit the game-tying homer with two outs in the 9th, etc.). All the other teams, including the Phillies with Carlos Ruiz last year, have relied on one catcher to start every game: Bengie Molina for the Angels in 2002; Ivan Rodriguez for the Marlins in 2003; Jason Varitek for the Red Sox in 2004 & 2007; AJ Pierzynski for the White Sox in 2005; and Yadier Molina for the Cardinals in 2006. There is something to be said for the consistency that comes from having a reliable catcher behind the plate every day. Jose Molina does have one thing going for him, however: he’s a Molina.
by phillyinportland on Oct 29, 2009 5:46 PM EDT reply actions
HR: Yanks vs Phils
I keep hearing about how the Yanks hit the most HR with 240 or so and the Phils are second with 220 or so. Apparently in the context I’ve heard it, it means the Yanks have more power than the Phils.
But all I can think is that the Yanks have a DH hitting all season while the Phils have a pitcher. In my book, that pretty much negates any statistical advantage the Yanks have in the HR. And to a lesser extent, hits, runs and RBI. The Yanks (and every other AL team) have an additional, usually very good, hitter. From what I can tell, the typical DH is good for about 25 HR, 85 R and 85 RBI. Compare that with the aggregate hitting by pitchers.
It’s generally accepted (usually when someone is going on about how much better the AL is) that AL pitchers numbers are inflated due to the DH. Why isn’t it mentioned that the reverse is true for AL team hitting?
by The R on Oct 29, 2009 6:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Not so sure it’s totally equal. I don’t think there’s a single bench player on the Phillies who would’ve racked up 20 HRs if batting everyday.
(the corollary is also that the Phils probably could’ve signed somebody capable of doing so if they knew they’d have a spot in the lineup for him on a daily basis)
pedro vs AJ
Burnett is 5-8 with a 4.85 ERA in 16 career starts against Philadelphia, including a 7-3 loss at Yankee Stadium on May 22, when he allowed five runs in six innings.
Burnett will be facing a Phillies team that has fared quite well against him. In his career, the Phils have the highest batting average (.263) and OPS (.784) of any team he’s faced more than seven times
Maybe Burrnett should tip his hat to the Phillies and call them his daddy.
maybe burnett saw that stat and said enough is enough
because we sure made him look like Cliff Lee , CY Who??
by SmilingJPhilsPhan on Oct 30, 2009 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
From an Angels Fan
GO PHILLIES – it would be great for your team to go home 2 up on the yankees and to silence Buck and McCarver would be awesome too.
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