World Series Simulation, Game #3

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Yankees and Phillies using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to today's starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran on Thursday at 9:30PM)

 Skinny:  Simulator Fun Facts... It looks like according to Vegas, the Yankees are going to be favored in every game of this series.  Vegas has the Yankees as slight favorites to win Game #3, while my simulator has the Phillies as slight favorites.  The spread between Vegas and my simulator is around 6%.  AccuScore has come in with numbers similar to Vegas in terms of win probability, but is predicting an over/under of 10.6 runs, while both Vegas and my simulator see the over/under in the low 9s.

Note: Keep in mind I did this simulation before knowing the actual starting lineups, so some of the players I used may not be starting.   Many of the "Players Most Likely To" stats depend on having the correct lineup.  The lineups  I used are listed below.  Chances are you won't see a big difference in win probability from having the lineup order slightly off.  Picking the correct starters is more important, especially if one of the better players is taking the day off.  But you still won't see a big change in win probability if the starter and backup are interchangeable.