Better to be lucky...

by jonk on Oct 30, 2009 9:17 AM EDT Comment 48 comments

...than good. That is what somebody's mama always says, somewhere.

Burnett sure seemed like a beast last night. Unhittable to say the least. Sometimes perception matches up with reality; Burnett was unhittable. The problem is that he was walkable and the Phillies got screwed there. Burnett knew what he was getting and was Tom Glavine about it. He knew he didn't have to throw one pitch down the middle of the plate and he didn't. Fair or not, I'll post and you'll decide.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Not one pitch down the middle. Pretty amazing. But when you are given every call on the outside, why the heck would you throw the ball down the middle? 8 pitches on the outside and 2 on the inside tell the whole story. When he wasn't getting those calls, the Phils were flailing at thos pitches grounding out weakly. What is telling to me is that he got MORE called strikes outside the edge of the plate than he did on the inside on the left side of the plate (in the graph). 8 outside the zone, 6 inside the zone. I would be a bit happier if those numbers were reversed, but that is a terrible strikezone. The problem is that those pitches are unhittable but were kinda close, so nobody really notices.

Compare that to Pedro, who was SICK (in all senses of the word)!

via www.brooksbaseball.net

He got 4 outside calls, one pretty darn close too, but look at all those called strikes IN the zone. He didn't have to try to extend the zone out a bit, he was dropping everything inside the zone and the hitters couldn't do anything with it. Don't let the game results fool you, Pedro was dominant and Burnett, while certainly hitting his spots, was given an extra-wide plate by the ump.

I don't normally rail on the umps. I was fine with Howard's play since it was inconclusive in slow-motion replay (how can you expect an ump to go either way on that) and I am not really even that angry about Utley's DP (really it shouldn't have been close to make it questionable). I do care about a wide strikezone with a good pitcher on the mound. It's tough enough to hit the ball squarely when it is down the middle of the plate, now you have to try to hit it when it is a ball.

So, to recap...

Burnett = lucky; Pedro = good

0 recs | Comment 48 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

I did think there were entirely too many called strikes on the inside and outside part of the plate last night. I also thought the umpire was incredibly consistent though…aside from Howard’s last strikeout.

by Clyde Simmons on Oct 30, 2009 9:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Consistency means nothing if it isn’t consistently good. You could blame Pedro for noth throwing out there all night too, but he shouldn’t have to. I am not really even killing the ump. It is a major flaw in the game if you have an ump that cannot call that pitch a ball and a guy who can throw it there consistently.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 30, 2009 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Given Pedro's 4 'outside' strikes and the lack of any pitches called balls in that territory

I think it’s fair to say that the umpire was very consistent, and furthermore, maybe the Phils coaches and Pedro could have used this to their advantage.

It’s one thing if the strike zone is shrinking and expanding with every inning or new pitcher. But those graphs above don’t show that. It suggests the outside was available for Philly pitching to take advantage of, too.

It’s more pronounced because Burnette was aiming for the spot all night and he hit it and he got the calls.

Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!

by ahtrap on Oct 30, 2009 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

did u see mo’s strikezone when he came into pitch? it was way bigger than burnett’s, he was getting EVERYTHING

by packimop on Oct 30, 2009 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

they were consistantly bad. But I guess that means they were still consistent.

Like working with a person who constently smells like a monkey’s butt. Not a good thing, but something you expect and learn to deal with.

Bleed green, or don't bleed at all!

by yophillybro on Oct 30, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have a sliding scale for these things. While it’s true that the size and shape of the strike zone are matters of objective truth, I don’t mind small deviations from the letter of the law if there’s consistency. Consistently large deviations, on the other hand, aren’t excusable, and of course, everyone agrees that inconsistent small deviations are bad as well.

I actually didn’t perceive the strike zone to be all that bad yesterday during the game, although some of the pitches on the charts above do seem pretty bad.

by taco pal on Oct 30, 2009 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The outside pitches to leftys drove me nuts. I swear Utley needed to be swinging a telephone pole to hit a few of the called strikes (and Chase pretty much stands on the plate). The problem with inconsistency is hitters don’t know what to swing at. If last time up a pitch on the edge of the plate was a ball, next time you expect the same so you don’t swing at it. If it was a strike in AB #1, then in future ABs you’d fight off foul (at least) and hope for a pitch you like.

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What I found intersting this morning was Buster Olney praising Rivera going to the outside on Chase Utley…scouting report should tell you that Buster :)

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 30, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, the fact Utley practically stands on the plate should be enough to tell you outside is his weak spot.

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Except that well – no it shouldn’t – he was even weaker on the outside pitches in the second half than he was in the first half

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 30, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hence the reason it’s his weak spot.

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They were giving that backdoor breaking ball to Burnett against the lefties all night, and some of those pitches were in excess of 6 inches off the plate. Abysmal umpiring there.

That said, I hate blaming officiating for a loss in any sport, and won’t do it here. The Yankees won last night, plain and simple.

by Bye, Dawk :( on Oct 30, 2009 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree, except Howards last 2 ABs were kinda BS

by philiafan14364 on Oct 30, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

strike zone was all over the place.

That is why batters stop taking first pitch, because that was the only strike he threw. Everything else what all over the place, he got a lot of strikes that were iffy to say the least.

But that said, we still should have hit him better.

Bleed green, or don't bleed at all!

by yophillybro on Oct 30, 2009 9:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nothing truly pissed me off last night until the top of the 9th inning, and that called strike 3 on Howard

Just icing on the proverbial shit cake that was last night’s game

Oh and Pedro did very well, not his fault our hitters were using their new non-existent Louisville Sluggers

by CoburnsCuddleBuddy on Oct 30, 2009 10:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The first called strike to Utley was awful and pretty much meant he had to swing at the subsequent pitches and ended up grounding into the DP.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 30, 2009 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Utley’s 8th

Howard’s 9th

Utley HAD to swing at that last pitch cause it was a strike earlier int he count when neither of them really should be strikes.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 30, 2009 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They’re consistent though. Strike 2 to Utley and strike 3 to Howard are in the exact same place and the exact same pitch.

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

respect

It’s amazing the amount of respect Mariano Rivera showed to Utley in that at bat. Rivera’s made his living his whole career busting that cutter inside to lefties and yet he wouldn’t go anywhere near the inside part of the plate against Chase with runners on base.

Shame the ump let him get away with it.

by irons21 on Oct 30, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or maybe he just looked at the numbers and the scouting report that said utley was weaker on the outside of the plate in the second half of the season.

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 30, 2009 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you’re right. It just changes everthing. You really can’t have a good at bat when this crap is going on. You are in defensive mode the whole time, forced to swing at bad pitches. It’s just infuriating. And its not like Ultey and Howard are rookies and need to ‘do their time’ to get an honest call. I expect no love from the men in blue. The only thing we could have (and should have) done last night was to get to Burnett in the early innings.

by Boundforbeach on Oct 30, 2009 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that was the worst ball/strike call of the night. so bad that even the yankees rooting section in the fox broadcast booth said it was obviously not a strike.

by SethC on Oct 30, 2009 10:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You must have had the same idea I did

The first thing I did this morning was to take a look at the Pitch F/X to see how bad some of those calls were last night. I usually don’t nitpick balls/strikes but when the umpire is consistently giving the pitcher an extra 4-5 inches off the plate it’s going to be a long day for the hitters.

I don’t blame Burnett and Molina for attacking that part of ~~the plate~~ err, the outside b/c they knew they were going to get the calls. It’s unfortunate for us, b/c they took advantage of it more than we did and Howard and Utley were fighting an uphill battle all night.

by Screen Name 20 on Oct 30, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You will notice on that there isn’t one green dot inside the furthest outside red dot he called a strike. He was very consistant, but consistantly bad which hurts when your power hitters are all lefties and the pitcher has a pitch that can curve right over the outside part of the plate.

by Clyde Simmons on Oct 30, 2009 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

good point

Best analysis of why the wide zone hurt the Phillies in particular I’ve seen….thanks!

Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!

by ahtrap on Oct 30, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great blog, makes sense after a senseless night!

by DeanH on Oct 30, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Man

Glancing at the first 5 items or so on PA, you’d think the Yankees lost last night. Posts calling Jeter (or Girardi) stupid for bunting on 0-2 (he/they were), how Fox’s announcers are anti-Yankee, a post explaining why the New Yankee stadium is about as loud as the old Cowboy stadium (read: not very), an article about Howard’s double play (the bounce, which wasn’t that bad a call, when you watch it in full speed. Also: you won, so who cares?) and how bad their setup pitchers are.

Seriously, our posts are more positive (or, at least, less negative in totality), and we lost the damned game.

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

LOL

It’s not enough for them to win the game—they want to dominate. They aren’t doing that and it’s making them uncomfortable because they are finding out that the Phillies aren’t the cupcake opponent they assumed them to be.

by doubleh on Oct 30, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you'd think 2001 (Dbacks), 03 (Marlins), 04 (Red Sox), 06 (Tigers), etc would cure their fans of those illusions...

wouldn’t you?

Official BYB Juju Consultant...now accepting rally creature applications!

by ahtrap on Oct 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking as a yankee fan, I think very few knowlegable fans took the Phillies lightly. Most of the statistical projections (BP among others) did have (and still has now) the yanks as a slight favorite. Even with that, the yanks offense has been iffy during the postseason while the Phillies came in swinging well.

I think a lot of the posts that you read as “complaining about a victory” are more about things to worry about moving forward. Poor managerial decisions and spotty middle relief won’t be huge factors against a middle division team, but against the Phillies it will likely sway the series toward a yankee loss.

by yankees095 on Oct 30, 2009 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand

It’s how I took them. Just Gloom and Doom is usually the purview of Philly, not our opponents. It’s a little unnerving :)

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not making us uncomfortable at all

It’s a none game day so we have to talk about something. No one called Jeter stupid, but it was questionable to bunt 0-2 with no outs, but Jeet gets a pass. McCarver HATES the Yankees, that is not hyperbole it is fact. McCarver got fired as a Yankees broadcaster right before the dynasty of the late 90’s and ever since then he has always hated them. Our setup pitchers were lights out the last two months of the season and have now come down to earth quite a bit in the post so it IS a worry considering we are going 3 man rotation. So before you condemn PSA, read all the posts and you will find 1) we are all very positive right now 2) we don’t cry about strike zones or bad ump calls 3) we can’t wait to hoist number 27 next season at the stadium.

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lol thats so funny...

i’ve been on PSA for the last couple days if u don’t remember and all you pussies do is cry and criticize.

by packimop on Oct 30, 2009 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude, stop it. You’re just making the rest of us look bad.

by taco pal on Oct 30, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and you have been nothing but a troll that contributes nothing

yet we still were civil to you for god knows why

by HappyLuckyGoldenDragonNumber1! on Oct 30, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

cry and criticize?

we don’t blame the umpires when we lose. That is a fact. You guys haven’t blamed the umps either (yet). But how are we crying? It’s legal to hate the announcers I think. And thats really the only “complaining” that is done over there. We ask questions about our team. We wonder what Girardi is doing half the time. We get upset when they are losing or they lose. But thats being a normal fan. Not “crying”.

You want to see crying and criticizing, see Halos Heaven (never thought something could be worse than Over the Monster)

by nyyrocks29 on Oct 30, 2009 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think it’s a Cliff Lee hangover. You don’t come out on the losing end of a Koufaxian game feeling comfortable.

I will say that proposing A.J.’s performance as lucky is sour grapes, and specious analysis. He took it to you guys. How ’bout some props?

"Here, if you have a milkshake, and I have a milkshake, and I have a straw. There it is, that's a straw, you see? You watching?. And my straw reaches acroooooooss the room, and starts to drink your milkshake... I... drink... your... milkshake!"-Daniel Plainview

by yankee come lately on Oct 30, 2009 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was on another blog where some Yankee fans accused Cliff Lee of cheating in Game One. It’s all coping mechanisms. Truth is, Pedro pitched well, and Burnett pitched better. The reverse of game one. But the strike zone was a bit of a moving target later in the game, especially for our better hitters.

by doubleh on Oct 30, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Umping was equally bad for everyone last night. Truth is we let AJ off the hook a few times. He suddenly started having trouble finding the plate and walked Utley on 4 pitches (only the last ball appeared in any way intentional), then Howard let AJ off the hook by swinging early and ending the inning. Other than that inning AJ dominated (not to Cliff Lee’s level, but close).

Still, if you had told me yesterday that Pedro would last into the seventh, give up 3 runs and the bullpen would give up 2 hits, no walks, no runs and get 4 K’s, I would be thrilled. This is a very good series so far.

by Cormican on Oct 30, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait – they called the DEREK stupid?

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 30, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes they did

by SmilingJPhilsPhan on Oct 31, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

blasphEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEmers

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 31, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't want to take credit away from the Yankees...

…because they deserved to win last night. I don’t think any level-headed Phillies fan would say that the umpires were the reason the Yanks won last night, and I wouldn’t want anyone to interpret this thread as sour grapes.

All that being said, the umpiring has played a pretty big role throughout this postseason, and that’s something that no one wants. What’s sad is that as disappointing as Jeff Nelson’s strike zone was last night, it was far from the worst I’ve seen this playoffs — Game 3 of the NLDS and Game 4 of the NLCS were even more egregious.

The umpiring hasn’t directly impacted the outcome of a game yet this postseason, but given all the mistakes so far, there’s a decent enough chance that happens. And if it does… look out.

by PhillyFriar on Oct 30, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It’s not sour grapes and it’s not a bad strikezone that is the problem. We have all seen miscalled pitches and that crap happens. They don’t REALLY bother me. What is the problem is when a good pitcher is able to circumvent the rules of the game because the umpire is incapable of calling it correctly. The subtle difference is probably MUCH greater than an umpire that blows like 2 or 3 calls. This is why Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux were so awesome. If Pitch FX was around then, we may find out that they really weren’t as good as we thought, just they could hit their spots on the corners and make balls look like strikes.

For Who? My teammates.

For What? To Win.

How Much? Where do I sign?

by jonk on Oct 30, 2009 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would make them as good as we thought, then, wouldn’t it? Thats how I reconcile last nights game. I recognize that the strike zone played a significant part in the outcome – the above graphs and the import of several at bats that ended on questionable called strikes should be more than enough to indicate that this game could have turned out much differently. However, whether we like it or not, adjusting to an umpire’s strike zone is a pretty valuable skill – as last night showed, its valuable enough to make the guy who arguably pitched worse end up with far better results. So while I’m disappointed that the umpire’s interpretation of the strike zone played such a significant role, I’m more frustrated with our pitchers and batters for not adjusting in some way. As unhittable as Burnett was when he was hitting that spot, our pitchers could’ve been equally unhittable. Likewise, we have batters who can get wood on that ball, and it’s their job to swing at a ball that has been called a strike all night.

by Steve J on Oct 30, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It appeared that there were a lot of first pitch called strikes against the Phillies. They tend not to swing at first pitches. Maybe some of their hitters should have changed their approach and swung at some first pitches to change the tempo of the game.

by fan since late 40's on Oct 31, 2009 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don’t most baseball players ‘tend not to swing at first pitches’ – isn’t that the kind of thing players are taught shortly after they start facing pitching? (I mean in tee ball, there’s no pitches)

Don't frack with me or you'll get a punch in the kidneys...you've been warned

by jemagee on Oct 31, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs